Michigan will probably get an at-large BCS spot. If Wisconsin wins the title game, they go to the Rose Bowl and it's highly unlikely that Michigan State would be chosen ahead of us because our traveling reputation is quite a bit better. That would put us in the Capital One Bowl, which picks first from the B1G teams after the BCS games are decided.
If Michigan State wins the title game, there's a solid chance Wisconsin gets picked up by the Capital One and we fall to the Outback.
If Michigan State wins AND Michigan gets passed by the BCS (highly unlikely), we could fall to the Insight.
At this point I would say 50% Capital One, 40% Outback, 10% Insight.
Pretty much exactly what I am thinking!
I might add a little more support for the Capital One passing Michigan State. The Spartans have played in Orlando 3 of their last 4 Bowl appearances. Also, they lost all of those.
As much as it pains me, I will be rooting for Wisky to beat MSU. Send us to the Capitol One Bowl and let us test our mettle against a solid SEC team.