When I eventually get this done (been a long time coming), what I'm doing is taking a look at the run/pass ration as well as the efficiency of our offense in those different situations: 1st, 2nd, 3rd/4th down as well as 1-3 yards, 4-7 yards, and 8+ yards.
There are a few things to be expected:
1. We should have a higher percentage of run plays from 1-3 yards. Considering our offense has very good running backs, we should be able to pick up a first down from 3 yards out more often than not.
2. We should have a higher percentage of pass plays from 8+ yards. It might not be as large of a percentage as run plays from 1-3 yards out, because teams usually have a 1st and 10, and in those cases the entire playbook should be available.
3. Which means that we should have more running plays than pass plays on 1st down.
4. The interesting part of this whole thing is going to be the ratios and effectiveness of plays ran from 4-7 yards.
I'm interested in seeing what the percentage rate for 1st down completions is compared to 3rd down. And if the average pass completion is longer on a pass compared to a run than it stands to reason that passing on 1st down should happen more. However.....again.....if that becomes too much of a tendancy than the defenses will adjust.