beorach

Should it go in the B1G forum instead? I figured it's about football and our conference's place with respect to the national championship picture. The fact our coaching staff has ties to the Pac-12 made their figures relevant to me as well (as a Husker fan). I was concerned about the lack of rushing production from Oregon State but the game they play out west is clearly different.

Oregon didn't post gaudy defensive stats against the pass such that I thought F$U might give them trouble last week (considering their best cover corner was also out). I'm looking at the Pac-12 teams' offensive stats, though, and figuring there are a few bases to excuse the less than stellar numbers the Ducks posted against the pass during the regular season. 1 - Only Utah has an overall rating that's below average in the category of passing offense and seven teams posted very good to great numbers. 2 - Conversely, only Oregon has an overall rating that's (actually well) above average in the category of rushing offense. 3 - Taking a team's full body of work into account ignores improvement. I posted here that I thought Michigan State was the only good bet (against the spread) of all the B1G bowl teams. That statement had to do with fearing the unknown with respect to strength of schedule (SOS) as much as anything and the Spartans had that edge versus the Bears. Turnover margin is another item I look at as a reason not to risk a wager but both teams excelled roughly equally within that category on the season. Before adjusting for SOS, I had calculated a spread of Baylor +4 for that game. On paper, I had Alabama as a 3.5-point underdog to Ohio State before any SOS adjustment (which, per the experts, favored the Tide). Neither team had much better than average stats within the turnover margin category. For the championship game, I have Oregon +8 but the Ducks have the SOS edge again. The Ducks' turnover margin rating is considerably better than that of the Buckeyes, too. Getting into the B1G's offenses a la the Pac-12 consideration above, we can draw some conclusions about the Buckeyes' stellar defensive stats against the pass and mostly average ones against the run. 1 - Ten of the B1G teams have below average numbers in the category of passing offense. 2 - Four of the B1G teams have below average numbers in the category of rushing offense with six having very good to great ones. Ohio State and Oregon both have just slightly above average stats against the run overall. Ohio State has great numbers against the pass while Oregon doesn't (again, just considering the total body of work against FBS teams without figuring in the CCG (+ Army vs. Navy) week). Oregon's numbers in the total defense category aren't great either and their scoring defense, while well above average, aren't up to Ohio State's standards.

Jim Harbaugh is at Michigan now because he was at Michigan before. They don't get him otherwise. I can see that it's good for the conference overall even though I personally hate the skunkbears... With that out of the way, how sad are people who have already broken out the sackcloth and ashes ahead of a Riley-coached Nebraska team playing a single down? How much sadder is a person who also wants to go on record for a potential "I told you so" moment in the future over his/her decision to give up hope? I don't need anything from people who are already wailing and gnashing their teeth ahead of a Riley-coached Nebraska team having played a single down. It's one thing to question the decisions of the powers that be within the program but quite another to give yourself a vested interest in seeing the program fail. Maybe that's just the difference in getting a response or not for the OP. How sad is it to treat your identity as a Husker fan (insofar as it's shared with us here anyway) like that? I understand pride and envy. I was jealous of UCLA the first time we played them...especially considering how new a coach Mora was relative to Bo. I think Nebraska might even have been the first BCS opponent Mora's UCLA squad faced? That game followed some talk of Bo considering the Miami job, too. I think I had decided by halftime that I was ready for him to go...but, as a Husker fan, I always hoped his teams' performances would change my mind.

Well played, sir!

I remember thinking a certain coach would have the smarts to build on the power running game already established at Nebraska after taking the HC job. We all know how quickly that hope was dashed. We've had this discussion about Oregon State's rushing stats already, though. Over the past decade, the Beavers' recruiting classes were usually ranked 9th in the Pac-Ten/Twelve. Through that same period, their average finish was 4th (behind Oregon, USC, and Stanford (in that order)) - essentially on par with Arizona State and UCLA. Considering the recruiting classes measure not just talent but also its depth, I think you have to excuse some amount of fluctuation in performance. With all that said, I'd like Nebraska to be known for its physical play on both sides of the ball. I think that's the Cornhusker legacy. Reading crap like this worries me but I'm behind our new guy 100% all the same. GBR!

I think "keep PLUCKING that chicken" has a better ring (and I guess I can understand the OP was barred for two weeks from participating in this seasons long discussion) but I still can't help but see this: Thanks for the memories, KB! Perspective and time may change a lot for everyone.

There's no need to defend your appreciation for a Husker legend. I appreciate the response, though, too.

That's exactly it, Glendower. I hear this on talk radio all the time, too (that the best teams should play). I understand people fear the inevitability of a team with several losses winning a CCG and getting a chance to play for the NC but improvement and timing are all part of what makes sports fun to watch. If a conference can't figure out a fair way to determine its champion, that's on the conference instead of some writers and/or a magic formula. I think most people want the regular season to remain special and this is the easiest way along with having higher seeds get home games in the playoffs (so I agree with Skersfan on that part). I figure the two best arguments against the old system were: 1) a team that can't win its conference shouldn't be playing for the NC; and 2) the smaller (Division 1/FBS) programs shouldn't be shut out automatically. I know Marshall lost to the Hilltoppers but would guess they'd have been on the outside looking in regardless. The rationale behind that would have been that other teams had proven more despite having lost a game? I'd rather an undefeated team of kids was given a chance.

The best pass that comes to mind was from a game against Colorado. He was in the grasp of a Buffalo defender and still managed to hit Ahman Green on the sideline. I know people will bring up that ISU game but, to my recollection, #15 was never bested on the field by his counterpart (despite having faced Heisman winners). He wasnt just "in the grasp". He was blindsided by an outside linebacker at full speed. Shoulder pads in the ribs. Took the hit, pump faked, held the ball, then let it fly. Start watching at 1:02:07. This play is 2 plays prior to the one being discussed. notice how CU is just starting to ramp up the chippiness, and the next play starts to get even a little rough with Tommie. Not a big Tommie fan off the field, but man, nothin pleases me more than stickin right back to some idiot sh#t talkers. Thanks for the effort finding that. I did a search but only found an article. I was waiting tables during this game, too, so my view of the play wasn't perfect (in the kitchen as I recall).

The best pass that comes to mind was from a game against Colorado. He was in the grasp of a Buffalo defender and still managed to hit Ahman Green on the sideline. I know people will bring up that ISU game but, to my recollection, #15 was never bested on the field by his counterpart (despite having faced Heisman winners).

Here's another that's up there for folks who remember (and fun to introduce to those who may not): p.s. - I don't know how to embed the video, sorry.

I appreciate the discussion. The early stats are tough to deal with for certain. For what it's worth, I came up with my own spread for the Michigan State game and had the Spartans as a -1/2 point favorite but I was giving them 3.5 points for being in East Lansing. All I did to calculate that was consider a theoretical best team (TBT), with all the best rankings for each category, playing against a theoretical worst team, with all the worst rankings per my method, and assign a spread of -59.5 points - figuring the TBT was also the home team. When I do this for the NFL, I go with a lower score (-31.5 or so). Cfbstats.com has a nice site that allows you to take the games against FCS teams out but it'd be great if you could only do P5 stats, too. I'm not doing much but copying, pasting, and using pulldown menus aside from changing my coefficient to set that initial, theoretical spread. If I was having great success picking games, maybe I'd be up for working with refining data more. I suppose I should also work some more categories, like special teams and tackles for loss, into the mix as well. p.s. - I just looked and they do have a P5 only link. The Holiday Bowl matchup is one that my calc's put at USC +2 after rounding to the nearest point. This spread, as was the case with the MSU one, doesn't have SOS factored into it. The site I like for SOS calc's is footballperspective.com and they had the Trojans' SOS as greater than ours. Between that and the turnover margin, I wouldn't bet the Corn but what do I know? I only won by taking them (and the points) against MSU because of DPE and that missed field goal. Back to the playoffs, I suppose it was always going to be an evolving process because of the bottom line. Incremental progress is still progress at the end of the day.

I don't have the time to watch every game of every team in the "Power 5" conferences so, to get a decent idea of how they compare, I made bell curves of the stats (for all 128 FBS teams) within the categories of passing defense, passing offense, rushing defense, rushing offense, scoring defense, scoring offense, total defense, total offense, and turnover margin. I then calculated an overall ranking for teams based on their stats posted within games (against only FBS teams - no stats versus FCS teams were included) relative to those curves. E.g., Nebraska posted a stat of 5.8 yards per attempt in the passing defense category. The national average value for that stat is 7.08 with a standard deviation of 0.83. Considering 5.8 is less than the average minus one standard deviation, I rate that stat as excellent. Had the posted value just been less than the standard deviation minus half a standard deviation, I'd have rated that as good. Had it been within the range set by the average plus or minus half a standard deviation, I'd have rated it as average. I do this for every stat it makes sense to across those categories I listed above and keep a running tally of performance to issue a final grade. I'm going to share the rankings below with and without a strength of schedule factor applied. The data I used was from before conference championship games were played. WITH SOS The average performance of B1G teams (relative to these bell curves) puts them at 4th out of the 5 "power" conferences. Only the ACC's stats are weaker overall. The Big XII is practically equal with the Pac-12 and the SEC takes the top spot. Looking a little deeper, I took the averages and standard deviations of my ratings in order to determine which "P5" teams have bad or great stats (in terms of statistically significant figures within these categories) overall. The B1G has three teams with great stats (Michigan State, Ohio State, and Wisconsin in descending order), three with poor stats (Indiana, Rutgers, and Illinois in descending order), and eight with average stats (Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan, Penn State, Northwestern, Purdue, and Maryland in descending order). The SEC has five teams with great stats (Alabama, Georgia, Auburn, Mississippi State, and Ole Miss in descending order), one with poor stats (Vanderbilt), and eight with average stats (LSU, Arkansas, Florida, Missouri, Tennessee, Kentucky, South Carolina, and Texas A&M in descending order). The ACC has no team with great stats, two with poor stats (North Carolina and Wake Forest in descending order), and twelve with average stats (Clemson, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami, Boston College, Florida State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh, Duke, Syracuse, and North Carolina State in descending order). The Big XII has four teams with great stats (TCU, Oklahoma, Kansas State, and Baylor in descending order), four with poor stats (Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Iowa State, and Kansas in descending order), and two with average stats (West Virginia and Texas in descending order). The Pac-12 has no team with great stats, one team with poor stats (Washington State), and eleven with average stats (Oregon, USC, UCLA, Stanford, Arizona, Washington, Arizona State, Utah, Cal, Colorado, and Oregon State in descending order). WITHOUT SOS The SEC still tops the list by this rationale but the B1G is second with the ACC third, Pac-12 fourth, and Big XII last (if I just averaged all the rankings for their respective teams). The B1G has three teams with great stats (Michigan State, Ohio State, and Wisconsin in descending order), four with poor stats (Indiana/Purdue (tie), Rutgers, and Illinois in descending order), and seven with average stats (Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, Penn State, Michigan, Northwestern, and Maryland in descending order). The SEC has three teams with great stats (Georgia, Mississippi State, and Alabama in descending order), one with poor stats (Vanderbilt), and ten with average stats (Ole Miss, Auburn, Florida, LSU, Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, South Carolina, and Texas A&M in descending order). The ACC has no team with great stats, two with poor stats (North Carolina and Wake Forest in descending order), and twelve with average stats (Clemson, Louisville, Georgia Tech, Boston College, Miami, Florida State, Duke, Pittsburgh, Virginia, Virginia Tech, North Carolina State, and Syracuse in descending order). The Big XII has three teams with great stats (TCU, Baylor, and Kansas State in descending order), four with poor stats (Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Iowa State, and Kansas in descending order), and three with average stats (Oklahoma, West Virginia, and Texas in descending order). The Pac-12 has no team with great stats, two with poor stats (Colorado and Washington State in descending order), and ten with average stats (Oregon, Stanford, USC, Arizona, Washington, UCLA, Arizona State, Utah, Cal and Oregon State in descending order). TL;DR? I rated the body of work of all 128 FBS teams and then focused on just the "P5" teams in order to discern a pecking order among the conferences. It would seem the ACC and Pac-12 have some real parity and the SEC is fairly loaded. The other conferences' teams vary greatly in terms of quality...with the Big XII striking me as the greatest wild card in terms of figuring out how good the teams in that conference are. To simplify it all once more, here are the percentages of teams, in each respective conference, that have above average cumulative rankings among just the "P5" using the data described above (w/ and w/o SOS, respectively): B1G - 41.67% and 50.00% SEC - 71.43% and 64.29% ACC - 50.00% and 57.14% Big XII - 60.00% and 50.00% Pac-12 - 50.00% and 58.33% By that rationale, you can see that the B1G is the only conference with less than half its teams posting above average numbers overall when strength of schedule is factored into the calculation. Whoop-tee-doo - what's it all mean, Basil? I think we need to simplify the college football playoff system because even the objective data can be misleading. Take the conference champions and let the so-called experts, in concert with computers, pick another one to three team(s) from the rest of the FBS.

I can understand Nebraskans not liking the sound of the AD considering we're a warm and friendly people, GDI! With that said, it's not the employee's right to make demands of his boss. If Bo was concerned his job was in jeopardy, he should have been asking what he needed to do and making the necessary changes. It's something all of us folks in the real world probably know something about.

We can always go root against the Penguins in Vermilion next season.

It's difficult to suffer fools who don't follow your program speaking on it as if they knew better than you.

Don't forget that only we Nebraska fans are like this. LSU and Oklahoma fans aren't so concerned, for example. It makes me wonder about why those folks down in Norman never seem to stop cheating trying.

This is very interesting. I touched on this elsewhere but the sad truth of recent events is "we" hired BP because we knew him. We didn't just go for the best DC out of the SEC (as I think that would have meant at least giving Charlie Strong an interview) at the time. If we really knew BP, as I think we ALL do now, the hire's a real head-scratcher. The guy knows defense and can motivate the kids. The last part of that was a judgment from a short period of time in our backyard (and a longer period spent under greater head coaches).

It should have happened last year but for SE having barely been around during Bo's tenure (and he admitted as much at the presser he gave to announce Bo's firing). I see that as a point in the AD's favor, in other words, that he gave Bo more consideration. As for how Bo could have taken a job elsewhere and left on better terms had the axe come down a year earlier, I'm not sure I follow your reasoning. The YSU contract was signed ahead of the latest audio being released by the press, right? What's the difference? I've wondered whether Bo would rather have gone out on the high note that was the hat-swinging incident as opposed to the latest tirade but can't imagine it cost him a shot at being the head coach at Texas/USC/Penn State, yadda yadda...

I went to the Minnesota game and noticed their players reveling in the passion of Nebraska fans (as they taunted us during the final seconds). It struck me as sad that any of (those young football players we look upon as) our kids see that as a negative.

The type of writer who would write "[t]hose type of people are" shouldn't be getting paychecks. It's bad enough he doesn't seem to know anything about football.

I think TO cares enough about the program and the state to do whatever it takes to mend fences. It's a shame he trusted Bo. We didn't go after the best DC in the SEC when we hired Bo. We went for a guy we knew and now we all know who he is. That's the worst thing I can say about TO. To try and be fair, though, what he said about the hire was that BP was an accomplished defensive mind and was able to motivate his kids. The fire was something a lot of us liked until we were on the receiving end. The nation will remember TO for that two-point conversion and Lawrence Phillips. The nation will remember BP for the tirades. Do you think he'd rather have been fired for hitting the referee with his hat (if the swing trajectory had been a few inches different)? p.s. - I think it's reasonable for people to expect a leader to be more personable and outgoing (than it sounds like SE is) in a place like Nebraska.