All Hail Herbie

I understand that you want this to work. So do I. That said, I want to be careful about discarding a year here or there due to extenuating circumstances. Every program encounters unexpected obstacles along the way (key personnel injuries, suspensions, staff departures, tougher than anticipated scheduling, etc.). Every program dealt with Covid and interruptions this year, period. Somehow, the top programs were able to cobble together a league title and / or playoff appearance. Look at what Northwestern accomplished. Credit to Coach Fitzgerald on that effort. If Dabo Swinney had a 7-5 season this year, would their fans have accepted a "lost" Covid year? Very unlikely. Let's restrain these courtroom arguments for "mitigating circumstances" and just hold the program to a simple standard (non-SP+), are we improving? At this moment, my answer must be no. Year 4, who can say as of yet.

Agreed wholeheartedly. See my latest response.

My goal is always to generate thought amongst the fanbase as we evaluate the current state of affairs. While I have little background on SP+ rankings (so I cannot fairly assess), I can see that many place their faith in these analytic models. Having said that, and as you could see by my post, my view is well beyond wins and losses. Are we competitive week in and week out? Are we improving as it relates to measurements such as penalties per game, turnovers per game, etc.? Are we keeping our foundational personnel for future program growth? Losses to teams like Illinois and Minnesota (severely short-handed), and challenging wins against the likes of Purdue and Rutgers illustrated a fair amount. I suppose I should be thrilled with an SP+ ranking of 20 or better this year even if we are not bowl-bound and not competing for our division. Incidentally, does anybody know our SP+ ranking from 1993 - 1997? I presume we have SP+ trophies for a few of those years somewhere in Lincoln.

The term "re-build" continues to be used when assessing the current staff and effort. My trouble with this term is that it infers that either at the end of the prior regime or the beginning of this regime, that a true bottom was reached (i.e. poor culture, losses vs. wins, poor fundamentals / technique, lack of discipline, etc.) and that we are ascending from those depths. Heading into Year 4, do we feel that we are in our ascendancy? As far as Items 2, 3, and 4 above, I am not certain much has changed in 4 seasons (Riley - Final Year & Frost 3 Years). I know Item 1 is debatable (via attrition), but what tangible evidence is there that we have ascended from the depths? You probably could have sold me on ascendance following Year 1 of this regime (many close losses to competitive teams and wins against the bottom of the league). Years 2 and 3 have definitely been a setback to that progress. Separately, the news that former players were added as unpaid advisors was certainly good for a news cycle and I suppose will rekindle hope. The question is, will hope alone alter our present reality?

This is the variety of honest assessment and dialogue I was hoping to generate. Reasonable scrutiny is not personal. Moreover, conditioning every piece of criticism is not necessary (i.e. Frost inherited poor recruits, Covid, attrition, etc.). Coaches accept these lucrative contracts understanding both the risks and rewards. Let's be clear-eyed about our status while recognizing that Coach Frost is doing what he believes is right. Many times coaches fail, and we just need to be prepared for this based on the current trajectory.

In the interest of keeping the peace within the fan base, I have no expectations for either Year 4 or Year 5. Evidently, we want to avoid making any judgment on the state of the program in the eyes of some until we complete Year 5. Having said that, I think we can safely agree that losing records the next two years will not result in another contract extension, correct? If that is not a safe assumption, how long does this Coaching staff need to qualify us for a bowl? 10 Years?

I tend to think that Coach Frost is just in over his head. Coach Frost is a Luke Fickell, unable to succeed at a Major FBS level, but someone who I believe is better suited to coach in a league like the MAC or American. No shame in this reality, but it will soon be time for our fanbase to face it. "Man's got to know his limitations" as Clint Eastwood once said.

Completely agree with the 5 year timetable (of which we are entering Year 4). I only question the term "rebuild" as I am less than confident that we will achieve that milestone at the end of next year. 22 Months and counting...

I think this assessment is fair. The question is whether or not this demonstrates any tangible progress after 4 years of a new regime. Bear in mind that this assessment also factors in a 4th Year Starting QB. Do we believe our future record will vastly improve with a QB who has yet to start a college game (recruit or transfer)? Having said that, and with guidance from the recruiting experts, we know that we are just another Top 20 class or two away from being a contender so be patient. For us, a contender is apparently defined as 6 wins.

I believe I caught the 6 in a row stat on BTN. All of this as you know is academic if through attrition many of the signees fail to develop, do not embrace the culture and remain, or just leave for greener pastures (playing opportunities). Following this news (like practice reports) will make your head spin and do little to change the overall result. The experts and media keep teasing us with this to keep us interested, while the on-field product flatlines.

Yet another coveted Top 20 Ranking from the "experts". I feel so much better about the future with their endorsement (now 6 Top 20's in a row). Would any of the recruiting "experts" venture a forecast on how many of these 6 will be here in 2 years? Being a paid recruiting "expert" for Rivals / HI / ESPN Insider must be the greatest gig around. Your prognostications can be 90% wrong (literally worse than a weather forecaster) and still be the toast of college football fans. Forgive my cynical attitude, but I am still scarred from 2005. Also, no disrespect to the posters here who are just expressing unfettered optimism, I just will never buy in to this "second season" again.

While I would not describe our redzone play calling as too cute, it seems to lack calibration at times. Regardless of our debate on the topic, we will soon find out if a consistent bowl quality SEC team uses Wandale in the much the same fashion in the red zone. I suspect they will not...

We should and will wait, at least 2 more years, to determine whether this experiment works. The trend line is not a positive one right now, but perhaps in Year 4 or 5 the program will have a breakout, 6 win season. I love optimism, but at some point in the next 24 months, we will be unable to deny reality.

Very good point as we must all determine what is the most valuable. I will say however that I wonder if Husker reporters have a choice these days. For years they chose the latter and enjoyed a winning product on the field to report on. Nowadays, it must be struggle just to get out of bed in the morning. Especially on autumn weekends on the road when their per diem is exhausted and they find an empty scotch bottle on the floor following another losing performance. I have the luxury of being able to turn it off in the 1st Quarter!

Completely agree. He was effective in this role at several stops so why not explore it when the offense has become unreliable the past 2 seasons? The program just seems content with a vision that is not being realized. Clemson struggled defensively for years as they looked to be competitive in the ACC and nationally. Coach Swinney eventually decided to make the hire of Brent Venables a priority so they could become a regular contender. Oklahoma under Coach Stoops similarly made a move offensively when they sacked Josh Heupel as OC in favor of Lincoln Riley. Continuity in support of perennial underperformance is not a virtue in modern day football. We just need to be more nimble with our approach.

No, but 5 years in this era is more than adequate to determine whether the current course is working. If in 24 months we have extended the bowl-less streak to 6 years, I would hope the fan base could see that this approach is not the future. No further extensions necessary and we wish him well.

As a principle, I believe strongly in program continuity. Having said that, there are two components to continuity, staff and personnel. Given the player attrition amongst underclassmen that we have witnessed the past 3 years, and the consensus that a degree of this will exist each year with the transfer portal, we need staff who can instill simple concepts quickly, both defense and offense. In terms of the offense, you know we will be "young and inexperienced" again this year and in year 5 despite the staff continuity. Despite the excitement over the raft of new players entering the program, it is unrealistic for any of them to be major contributors prior to the end of this upcoming season. Make no mistake, we are on a 24 month timetable and this will be the "chance" that Lubick and Frost are afforded.

I agree with you on both our prospects for landing a top notch coordinator as well as Lubick's future. Bottom line is we are maximum 24 months away from a future with or without Coach Frost. I would rather he go down swinging with an "all in" approach to fixing this, then simply deferring to the status quo. We as a fanbase need some tangible evidence of progress, not more declarations of good things to come.

I really like the optimism of this post and of our fanbase at-large, and had this been drafted 3 years ago following Coach Frost's time at UCF, I would have bought in. Having said that, aside from the FCS All American, who else on this list is a proven commodity in major college football (i.e. someone that we could consistently rely upon)? I only raise this as the offensive personnel development with this staff is very shaky at best. There is no reason to believe that will change with this crop of players either. Let's temper our enthusiasm so the letdown this Thanksgiving is not as great.

Completely agree. The problems with the Offense are too numerous to even find a suitable starting point. If we could start with playing a clean game (no matter the opponent) and not commit any penalties or turnovers, it would be interesting to see whether all of the other issues that we highlight on this board would simply disappear. They just might...

No issue with your post, I just want us to start thinking creatively in finding a solution to our problems. We are simply not equipped to be Oregon of 10 years ago so let's not work on getting that band back together. Herman has experience in the Big 10, Big XII and American. His offensive methodology has largely worked across conferences. We need a counterweight in the offensive game planning / play calling to Coach Frost.

Fair point. I could have conditioned my remark with an "at times" given all the swing passes to the boundary, inside zone runs and single wing QB runs that we typically see.

Certainly from an effort and preparedness standpoint, the defense is the cleaner and more refined unit today. Special teams remains an afterthought and the offense lacks creativity and discipline. In 24 months, we will either be discussing the most surprising turnaround in program history (from 3 wins this year) or the coronation of a new HC.

Rather than seeking prior coaches from the Oregon tree of 10 years ago, how would the group feel about a surprise hire such as Tom Herman for OC? He has quite a bit of pedigree in offensive gameplanning / playcalling and would bring a fresh perspective to our offense. Just because his HC situation did not work at Texas (which is a graveyard for many) does not necessarily mean he would not be an excellent assistant (former Broyles Award Winner). Think Steve Sarkisian with this approach.

I think we agree in part. I would say that the cumulative effects of repeated inside zone plays likely resulted in nagging injuries that ultimately limited his top line speed. While not injuries that limited participation, the kind that inhibit cutting and speed to a degree. Speculative I know, but you and I agree that his use was not what was envisioned when he arrived on campus. I look forward to seeing him play SEC football so that perhaps he can truly answer some of these lingering questions.