Breakdown of stats at the time of Taylor's first interception, and afterwards

[zoogs]

This is just something to throw out there. I compiled a list of plays and outcomes from the first half, according to the Yahoo! Sports play-by-play of NU/Wisconsin. With that in mind, I take a look at the collapse that followed and offer up my opinion of where Beck went wrong. Your mileage may vary.

 

Bear in mind that some of Taylor's runs came off of called pass plays, but without the game type, it's hard to tell which of them were and which weren't. Also keep in mind, the stats do not show which plays were ones where Taylor made changes...and which plays were ones where Taylor should have made adjustments at the line, but didn't. Stats can only tell you so much.

Rushing

Rex: 6 carries, 17 yards, 2.83 ypc

Taylor: 11 carries, 40 yards, 3.64 ypc

Other: 2 carries, 5 yards, 2.5 ypc (Legate and Abdullah here. Legate fumbled; we recovered)

Team: 19 carries, 62 yards, 3.26 ypc

Passing

Taylor: 6/9 (66.7%), 98 yards, 10.9 ypa (16.3 ypc), 2 sacks - 7 yards lost, 1 fumble on a sack (we recovered)

 

I would say that to that point in the game, the offense was all around pretty solid, but we were particularly effective through the air. Taylor was on the money. Rex was not really on his game.

--

Drive #1 post-interception

The drive after Taylor's first pick, we had Taylor going 2-for-4 for 30 yards (completions of 26 and 4 yards) before his second interception. This drive was 5 plays, 5 passes.

 

I do not think we went wrong on this drive until the fourth play. The first three plays of this drive had us advancing 30 yards to set up a 2nd-and-6 from the Wisconsin 46.

 

The pass play on 2nd-and-6, which resulted in an incompletion, was a critical error and forced the pass play on 3rd-and-6, which was the interception. If I am not mistaken, this was also Taylor's most excusable pick of the night. The 3rd-and-6 was one where we had to pass.

Drive #2 post-interception

This was a successful drive and I can't question anything that was called in light of that. We got the ball with 32 seconds to go and gained 30 yards in 3 plays to set up Maher for a field goal, which he missed. This drive was 2 passes, 1 rush.

Drive #3 - Pick #3

The drive after that was the start of the third quarter. Dirk focuses a lot on this one single playcall, but I don't blame us coming out with a pass here, for reasons I have mentioned previously. The playcall resulted in an uncovered back in the flats on the rollout, something that would have been a great start to the second half and something that would have kept that Wisky D on their toes. This pick may have been the worst and most inexcusable of the night.

 

Bottom line, at some point Taylor was going to be asked to throw again in the second half. I think Beck felt Wisconsin was probably betting on seeing a run here, and took his shot. I think Beck was going to commit to the run in the second half, but felt this was our best chance to reintroduce the pass, rather than on another 3rd-and-6+ situation. Sooner or later, you need to give Taylor an easy completion to build up his confidence. A successful completion here would have been a critical spark, and we had it. Taylor was set up as well as he could have been for the first throw of the second half that was inevitably going to have to happen, sooner or later.

 

The first two interceptions came on a 3rd-and-15 and a 3rd-and-6, and in both times the pass call was the right one also, in my opinion. I think you could go back and criticize the 2nd-and-16 pass call prior to the 3rd-and-15, but keep in mind, that was during a stretch where Taylor was hot and everything was going right for us through the air.

 

After that drive, the next time we got the ball back, it was 34-14. Ballgame.

Conclusions?

Between Taylor's first interception and his final one, we called 7 pass plays and 1 run play. Prior to Taylor's first interception, we had been very successful offensively, including (and particularly) through the air.

 

I believe Beck's only glaring mistake, during this stretch, was on that 2nd down and 6. However, that mistake was a critical one and had lasting and very serious consequences. In the breakdown of the collapse, though, I really believe the "12-of-15 obviously won't work" line/stat frequently being thrown around to be pretty misleading, and does not accurately sum up what happened.

 

An important note: the "calls" I refer to, to this point, refer ONLY the decision to run or throw on a given down. I can't comment on the specific formations or plays or routes that we used, and would defer to someone who can. All of that stuff belongs in a different domain, one asking the question, 'Did we have the proper scheme installed for this game.'

 

Discuss!

 

Excel spreadsheet showing the play results prior to the first interception

[gobiggergoredder]

I'm still trying to figure out the logic that Beck somehow stepped out of what he has been doing all year. Many of you make it sound like he went from Tommie Frazier option to Dan Marino. Didn't see it in the game and I don't see it in the stats.

 

CHATTY

Passing - 11/22(50%)

Total Plays - 65

% Pass - 34%

% of Total Yards from pass - 34%

 

FRESNO STATE

Passing - 10/21(48%)

Total Plays - 56

% Pass - 38%

% of Total Yards from pass - 50%

 

WASHINGTON

Passing - 10/21(48%)

Total Plays - 76

% Pass - 28%

% of Total Yards from pass - 33%

 

WYOMING

Passing - 12/21(57%)

Total Plays - 70

% Pass - 30%

% of Total Yards from pass - 55%

 

WISCONSIN

Passing - 11/22(50%)

Total Plays - 65

% Pass - 34%

% of Total Yards from pass - 53%

 

SEASON

Total Plays - 332

% Pass - 32%

% of Total Yards from pass - 45%

[zoogs]

Much of it is skewed by the later part of the game, where we packed it in and really abandoned the pass for the most part.

 

There was that stretch in the middle with the 12 of 16 or whatever it was, but I think that needs to be put in context. It isn't unreasonable for a game where you are "committed" to the run to be able to cherrypick the most pass-heavy set of plays and say, hey look, ____ % of these 15 plays were passes, how outrageous!

 

The other thing that jumped at me as I was reading through the play-by-play: damn, did our defense get owned.

[The Maudfather]

I don't think that any of Taylor's interceptions were excusable. That 3rd and 7 in the second quarter he locked onto his receiver, threw into double coverage and completely ignored the correct read.

[NUance]

I don't think that any of Taylor's interceptions were excusable. That 3rd and 7 in the second quarter he locked onto his receiver, threw into double coverage and completely ignored the correct read.

Locking onto the receiver—that’s a HUGE problem. And we won’t have any kind of a passing attack until T-Mart overcomes it. There were a lot of passing plays where Beck had Rex wide open in the flat. But instead of dumping it off to his RB and picking up a short gain, Taylor goes for the homerun. Which did not work out well for us.

[Hercules]

It's fine if Beck wanted to pass the ball in the second quarter. But we weren't even trying to run the ball. With a QB like Martinez, the idea should be to catch the defense by surprise when you throw the ball. We had success early on throwing the ball because we stayed committed to our running game, even if it wasn't picking up huge chunks of yards.

 

When you completely abandon that running game, and throw the ball on 14/15 consecutive plays, the defense is no longer going to be surprised that you're throwing the ball, AND they don't have to worry about defending the run anymore. When a team doesn't have to defend the run, Peyton Manning is going to struggle to complete passes, much less Taylor Martinez. Tim Beck's second quarter playcalling is indefensible.

[BigAppleBucky]

Much of it is skewed by the later part of the game, where we packed it in and really abandoned the pass for the most part.

 

There was that stretch in the middle with the 12 of 16 or whatever it was, but I think that needs to be put in context. It isn't unreasonable for a game where you are "committed" to the run to be able to cherrypick the most pass-heavy set of plays and say, hey look, ____ % of these 15 plays were passes, how outrageous!

 

The other thing that jumped at me as I was reading through the play-by-play: damn, did our defense get owned.

 

 

Later in the game most of the Husker passes were short and out to the flat. Sort of an option pitch, only to a WR. Pretty effective, actually.

 

In no way would I agree that Nebraska "gave up". That last time out was an indication of that.

 

The nice thing is that younger teams tend to get better. Often at a fast pace.

[zoogs]

OK, that might not be a fair way to say it. But the game was a bit out of reach, and I think that was reflected in both the offense and defensive playcalling. We just had to settle for doing something on offense to get back to some respectability, but gunning for a win wasn't really an option at that point. We were trying to score points - but the game was out of reach.

 

This is what I don't get though. I mean, let's really, really ]get bottom-line on this thing.

 

Taylor had an interception because he was asked to throw on 3rd-and-16.

 

After that, we had two drives until halftime, the drives that are really drawing the criticism here. Drive #2 was simply successful. An efficient march against the clock that got us into field goal range in about 30 seconds. So Drive #1 is really what we want to look at.

 

How did that drive start? 3 pass plays, 30 yards, and marching into Wisconsin territory. Is there anything "not working" about that? And isn't the biggest mantra we have these days, for the offensive coordinator to not go away from what is working? I mean, we say this *all* the time when we run a few plays on the ground, and then throw an incomplete.

 

But my point is actually the opposite, that this drive failed because we didn't change it up after those first three plays and start pounding it again. That decision resulted in a disastrous second interception that really started the Wisconsin domination. But, you know, I think that is what we should really be criticizing Beck for, the decision he made as to where to go with this drive on 2nd-and-6 from the Wisconsin 40-whatever. Nothing before that, because whatever it was, it was working pretty well. Nothing after that, because well, that gets us to the end of the half and onto a separate topic from this "Turning Taylor into Manning 2nd Quarter" theme.