Pivotal Game?

[Roy CO HSKR]

It seems to me that, like last year, the ISU game will be the pivotal one for the Big 12 North championship. My thinking is that MU (new QB), KSU (new QB, new staff), KU (few returning) and CU (new QB, new staff) leaves ISU (good returning base) with a good chance to beat all of them. It's also our first Big 12 road game. Therefore, we must take them down to win the North.

 

Also, if we win the North, we won't be playing the Sooners twice!

[KansasHusker]

I wouldn't necessarely say ksu will have a new qb..I think evridge will be qb for them next season...

[Roy CO HSKR]

You're correct. How do you see the North battle?

[DJR313]

I dunno if ISU is an open and shut case for competition in the North. I can see them very easily being 4-4 in conference again. One of the other teams may break through. I think it will be:

 

NU

ISU

CU

MU

KU

KSU

 

I think all the other teams besides NU(and KSU) will be tightly bunched at either 4-4 or 3-5.

[husker rob]

I think that NU will be 6-2, I just dont know who NU will lose to. Texas is an obvious choice but we play them in Lincoln and you never know what is going to happen at home. AM will be tough to beat at home, so that is going to be my one pick for a loss but we will have to see on the other one

[BIGREDIOWAN]

I think we will do better than people think and for some reason I have a feeling we will beat Texas because Vince Young was a BIG part of the football team. I'm not taking anything away from the rest of the team I'm just saying IMO he was their offense!!! Can't say we will beat USC since we are in Cali, but I just don't see us losing to ISU. I think we have a better caliber team than they do!!! JMO

[Nate]

Nebraska

Iowa State

K-State

Colorado

Kansas

Mizzou

[Roy CO HSKR]

Another reason to look at ISU as our main obstacle to win the North is the passing game. Which QB will be on top?

 

This from rojo:

 

Brett Meyer of Iowa State might get the best stats---he’s coming off of a fine year and Cotton’s offense has ten starters returning.

 

But Zac now has his first Big 12 tour behind him---as well as his teething year for the West Coast Offense. There will be a light year's difference between the Zac Taylor who opened against Maine, Wake and Pitt last fall and the Zac Taylor we'll see this September.

 

Six Big 12 teams have returning starting QB’s for 2006. Statistically here’s how they did last year….

 

I. Pass Efficiency Rating: (Big 12 games only)

 

1. Meyer, ISU: 141

2. Taylor, NU: 127

3. Bell, BU: 122

4. Bomar, OU: 114

5. Evridge, KSU: 103

6. Pena, OSU: 102

 

Pass Efficiency Ratings for returning non-starting QB’s for other teams:

 

--Harrell, Texas Tech: 123 (55 attempts)

--Daniel, Missouri: 123 (46 attempts)

--Barmann, Kansas: 90 (18 attempts)

--McGee, Texas A&M: 89 (50 attempts)

--Cox, Colorado: 61 (29 attempts)

.

II. Percentage of Completions in ’05: ( Big 12 games only)

 

1-3 Taylor, Nebraska: 59%

1-3 Meyer, Iowa State: 59%

1-3 Bell, Baylor: 59%

4. Bomar, Oklahoma: 53%

5. Pena, Oklahoma State: 50%

6. Evridge, Kansas State: 48%

.

III. Interception Rates: Pass Attempts/Interception (Big 12 games only)

 

1. Bell, Baylor: 112 throws for each interception.

2. Meyer, Iowa State: 49

3. Taylor, Nebraska: 44

4. Bomar, Oklahoma: 33

5. Evridge, Kansas State: 29

6. Pena, Oklahoma State: 14

.

IV. Percentage of 2005 Receptions Returning for ’06: (By WR's, TE's, RB's, etc.)

 

1. 100%: Iowa State---All who caught passes in ‘05 return.

 

2. 92%: Oklahoma State---The top 5 receivers return.

 

3. 81%: Kansas State---6 of top 7 receivers return.

 

4. 79%: Missouri---6 of top 7 receivers return.

 

5. 78%: Nebraska---6 of top 7 receivers return. Add Matt Herian. Subtract the top receiver over the past two years---Cory Ross and his 64 catches (21 & 43).

 

6. 77%: Baylor---6 of top 7 receivers return.

 

7. 72%: Texas Tech---TT’s top four receivers in ’05 had 67, 67, 65, 65 catches. Only one is gone from that group: RB Henderson (67).

 

8. 67%: Texas---3 of top 4 receivers return; 5 of top 7.

 

9. 60%: Oklahoma---Only 1 of the top 3 receivers return, but 5 of the top 7 do.

 

10 55%: Texas A&M---Only 1 of the top 3 receivers return, but 5 of top 7.

 

11 50%: Colorado---Two of the top 3 are gone and both TE’s are gone.

 

12 49%: Kansas---Gone: 3 of top 4 receivers.

.

The Bottom Line:

 

Will Zac Taylor be the top throwing Quarterback in the Big 12? He and Bret Meyer are coming off of strong years and have veteran supporting casts.

 

Maybe a better question: Who will lead their team to the Big 12 Championship game in Kansas City?

 

The Husker defense got it together last year.

This year a growth spurt from the offense is needed. Zac will lead.

 

Just some things to think about…

____

Now, how about ISU's defense?

[huskerinark]

I think any road game will be pivotal. A&M, OSU and ISU will be tough to beat on the road. The fact that this staff has not had a good road win with one week to prepare worries me a lot. Hopefully the last two games from last year will help them get over the hump so to speak. I know we will be a better team next year on paper but KU and MU still jump out at me as games that the team quit at some point during the game. This cannot happen next year. There are no bye weeks so they must be ready to play every week, home or away.

[Greased]

On the whole KSU thing....

 

Freeman will have a huge wake up call when he steps up to the big boys league. This is not T-Ball anymore. Evridge is a decent quaterback, Freeman won't be a starter this year.

 

ISU will be a big game, prolley one of the better games we will see all year a true battle in the trentches.

 

Oklahoma will be a good game to watch, I still fear this team. Whenever I watch them I always fear the trickery, meaning they make the trick plays that make you say "if it was not for that one play we would be ahead by two touchdowns". They have always scared me with that one play.

 

Missouri, Kansas, Kansas St, and the Puffs they are all games that we will win.

 

Texas and the USC game will be fun to watch.

[HuskerWisdom]

Another reason to look at ISU as our main obstacle to win the North is the passing game. Which QB will be on top?

[cut...]

 

Now, how about ISU's defense?

In a quick look, they lose the following

 

-both starting safeties

-one starting CB

-2 starting LB's

-1 DT (Leaders)

-both DE's (Berryman due to team rules violations)

 

The safeties taking over are pretty highly regarded and probably more athletic than the ones from last year. Similarly, they seem to be high on their LB's. I would think they should worry somewhat about their DL, We might be able to take advantage of them up front, and it will be a key for their game plan to control the football, I imagine.

 

The guys coming in seem very athletic, maybe more athletic than last year's bunch, but they are losing a ton of experience. I suspect they could be better at LB and DB than they were this season, and it would probably be better if we played them earlier than we do (to take advantage of the inexperience and the jitters), but at least we aren't seeing them at the end of the season.

[HuskerWisdom]

On the whole KSU thing....

 

Freeman will have a huge wake up call when he steps up to the big boys league. This is not T-Ball anymore. Evridge is a decent quaterback, Freeman won't be a starter this year.

 

...

I agree with you. Freeman might win the job by the end of the year, but I'm not betting on it. Everidge is a pretty good QB and will win some games for him if they let him mature and play next year.

[chad1971]

It seems to me that, like last year, the ISU game will be the pivotal one for the Big 12 North championship. My thinking is that MU (new QB), KSU (new QB, new staff), KU (few returning) and CU (new QB, new staff) leaves ISU (good returning base) with a good chance to beat all of them. It's also our first Big 12 road game. Therefore, we must take them down to win the North.

 

Also, if we win the North, we won't be playing the Sooners twice!

THEY ARE ALL PIVITOL - Every game NEBRASKA LOSES counts.

[kc_husker]

It seems to me that, like last year, the ISU game will be the pivotal one for the Big 12 North championship.  My thinking is that MU (new QB), KSU (new QB, new staff), KU (few returning) and CU (new QB, new staff) leaves ISU (good returning base) with a good chance to beat all of them. It's also our first Big 12 road game.  Therefore, we must take them down to win the North.

 

Also, if we win the North, we won't be playing the Sooners twice!

THEY ARE ALL PIVITOL - Every game NEBRASKA LOSES counts.

Agree its almost about time we need to go into every

year and be thinking we can win every game. Just like

when Tom was coaching.

[Roy CO HSKR]

From rojo:

 

Let's start here:

 

I. The best single predictor of who makes it to a Big 12 Championship game: "Returning Starting Quarterback.”

 

--Twenty teams have been in the title game in the ten years of the Big 12. Sixteen have had returning starting Quarterbacks.

 

--(Note: Teams who didn’t have returning QB’s were not using youngsters: NU ’96: Scott Frost—redshirted transfer from Stanford; TAM ’97, Brandon Stewart---transfer QB from Tennessee; CU ’01: Bobby Pesavento; CU ’02: returning starter Craig Ochs began the year, Robert Hodge finished it).

.

II. Three North teams have returning starting Quarterbacks:

 

--Nebraska: Taylor

--Iowa State: Meyer

--Kansas State: Evridge (Or…?)

 

Let's focus on Nebraska and Iowa State.

.

III. Nebraska and Iowa State similarities.

 

1) The ISU offense returns 10 starters. Nebraska’s offense return 9 with starting experience. (Gone: Koch and Ross).

 

2) Bonuses: ISU should get back a healthy RB Hicks; NU should add a healthy TE Herian.

 

3) Coaches: Offensive Coordinator/O-line coach Barney Cotton goes into his third year. So are Callahan/Wagner.

.

IV. NU & ISU: Lousy Rushing.

 

Cotton’s and Wagner’s O-lines takes much of the responsibility for this….

 

Rushing: Average Yards/Carry (’05 Big 12 games only)

 

1. Texas: 5.7 yds/carry

2. Texas A&M: 5.4

3. Missouri: 4.2

4. Oklahoma: 4.2

5. Oklahoma State: 3.6

6. Kansas: 3.4

7. Colorado: 3.3

8. Texas Tech: 3.2

9. Iowa State: 2.8

10 Baylor: 2.7

11 Kansas State: 2.6

12 Nebraska: 2.2

.

V. NU & ISU: Increased Reliance on Passing

 

If the run game doesn’t work, then you go to your….

 

Pass Offense: Yards/Game (’05 Big 12 games only)

 

1. Texas Tech: 372

2. Nebraska: 266

3. Texas: 254

4. Iowa State: 250

5. Colorado: 242

6. Baylor: 206

7. Missouri: 199

8. Kansas State: 197

9. Oklahoma State: 188

10 Oklahoma: 186

11 Texas A&M: 181

12 Kansas: 171

.

VI. NU & ISU: Lousy Pass Protection

 

The blame can be shared, but much lies with the performance Cotton’s and Wagner’s boys.

 

Sacks Allowed/Pass Attempts: ('05 Big 12 games only):

 

1. Colorado: 1/26

2. Texas: 1/21

3. Missouri: 1/20

4-5 Oklahoma: 1/18

4-5 Texas A&M: 1/18

6-7 Texas Tech: 1/14

6-7 Kansas: 1/14

8. Baylor: 1/13

9-10 Nebraska: 1/12

9-10 Oklahoma State: 1/12

11 Kansas State: 1/11

12 Iowa State: 1/10

.

VII. The Result: Mediocre Offenses

 

Whatever happens in ’06, these not-too-exciting foundations start it for ISU and Nebraska:

 

Total Offense: Yards/Game (’05 Big 12 games only)

 

1. Texas: 520

2. Texas Tech: 458

3. Texas A&M: 404

4. Oklahoma: 376

5. Missouri: 374

6. Iowa State: 370

7. Colorado: 352

8. Nebraska: 339

9. Oklahoma State: 329

10 Baylor: 295

11 Kansas State: 292

12 Kansas: 291

.

The Bottom Line:

 

1) There are other factors beyond returning starters, QB’s and last year's offense:

 

--Defenses: ISU returns 3 starters from a unit that finished #35 in Total Defense; Nebraska returns 7 with starting experience from a unit that finished #26.

 

--Special teams: Nebraska ranked only behind Texas in Special Teams in ’05. ISU was 6th.

 

--Schedules versus teams from the South:

 

ISU: at Texas, at Oklahoma, Texas Tech.

Nebraska: Texas, at Oklahoma State, at Texas A&M

 

2) Offensively… It’s largely down to Cotton’s guys and Wag’s guys. Both have got a lot of work to do. That's my opinion.

 

Just some things to think about….