US Faces Labor Shortage

[cm husker]

I don't think this is a political issue per se, but it has political implications. It's definitely an example of why guys like Sanders and Trump need to get out of the way with their brands of corrosive, uninformed populist rhetoric.

 

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/41978d46-05a7-11e6-a70d-4e39ac32c284.html

 

 

 

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The US faces significant labour shortages in a wide range of sectors as unemployment falls towards 4 per cent and the working-age population stagnates, a leading business association has predicted.

With the time needed to fill a job already near the highest in at least 16 years and the number of people voluntarily leaving jobs at its strongest since the recession, difficulties finding skilled labour will intensify, pushing up wages and squeezing corporate profits, the Conference Board said in a report.

...

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“We are already very close to full employment, yet we have this trend of very slow growth of labour supply for the next 15 years, and there is very little that could be done about it barring major immigration reform,” said Gad Levanon, chief economist, North America at the Conference Board. “The implication of that is it is harder to find workers, and there is more acceleration in labour costs.”

 

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/04/19/the-u-s-occupations-at-greatest-risk-of-a-labor-shortage/

 

 

 

 

As a result, the Conference Board’s economic forecast is grim.

“The end result would be a 25-year period, 2005–30, of the U.S. economy growing by 1.5% on average,” the group said. “This is unprecedented: never in modern U.S. history have we experienced such a lengthy slow-growth period.”

Possible solutions won’t sound surprising, especially coming from a business group: immigration, automation and offshoring.

[BigRedBuster]

Admit before I write this that I haven't read the article yet.

 

If everyone who actually is of age and physically and mentally able to work actually tries to find a job and do it well, the US won't have a labor shortage.

 

Somewhere on here I saw an article posted that showed that even though job creation has increased, the unemployment rate hasn't changed much or even went up some. That's because more people were coming back into the work force that previously had dropped off the radar.

 

That said.....I have always contemplated what was going to happen when the baby boom generation all start to retire. Birth rates were relatively low. If the same percentage of people participate in the work force, theoretically, we would be short of well trained people to do a lot of jobs.

 

A kid growing up today and who is willing to work and get trained either in college or tech school, could find a job market pretty favorable over the next 10-15 years.

[cornographic]

They have this freaking yuge nanotech plant just built up in Albany, NY. Personally, I know I can live quite happily w/o nanotech, but I guess it's the coming thing, whatever it is--and sure to have unexpected consequences.

[cm husker]

Admit before I write this that I haven't read the article yet.

 

If everyone who actually is of age and physically and mentally able to work actually tries to find a job and do it well, the US won't have a labor shortage.

 

Somewhere on here I saw an article posted that showed that even though job creation has increased, the unemployment rate hasn't changed much or even went up some. That's because more people were coming back into the work force that previously had dropped off the radar.

 

That said.....I have always contemplated what was going to happen when the baby boom generation all start to retire. Birth rates were relatively low. If the same percentage of people participate in the work force, theoretically, we would be short of well trained people to do a lot of jobs.

 

A kid growing up today and who is willing to work and get trained either in college or tech school, could find a job market pretty favorable over the next 10-15 years.

 

If we stay out of the way of immigration and technology advances (and outsourcing), we'll be ok from an "availability of goods and services" perspective, but I do think that issue will be the undoing of social security.

 

 

It will be interesting to see if wages start to increase as labor markets tighten.

[84HuskerLaw]

Just have to ask who comes up with such ideas? This country has nearly 50 million adults NOT working and somehow someone wants to make the claim we have a labor shortage! LOL We have seen REAL wages and incomes falling for the past twenty years and literally millions and millions of unemployed and millions more underemployed. A report in the past few days indicated 80% of earners saw their net wages DROP in the past year. We are so far from a tight labor market it is impossible to conceive of seeing a tight labor market anytime within the next 5 years. Net hiring over the past 7 years has been negligible really, barely keeping up with reported population growth and certainly not cutting into the huge chunk of long term unemployed. Large numbers of workers who lost jobs 8 years ago during the initial recession onset who were making middle income wages and salaries ($55,000 and up) have been reemployed (if they have found gainful employment at all) at roughly half the wages. Household incomes have fallen about 10% over the past 7 years on average.

 

These basic economic facts are NOT present in a 'tight labor market' which generally means inadequate workers to fill the demand by employers. Now, there may well be some employers who are not finding sufficient numbers of quality employees ready and willing and able to work at below cost of living wage levels in some cities or even regions. However, the employers would have little or no difficulty in hiring lots of workers ONCE they raise wage levels to meet the levels needed by the hirees.

 

Recent news reports have made big news of California raising its minimum wage to $15 per hour. This would be meaningful and significant IF it were to be effective NOW. Instead, the law raises wages about a $1 per hour PER YEAR so we won't see $15 until around the year 2021 or so. By then, inflation will have stripped the wage to the point it will need to be $21 per hour. This is typical of the minimum wage effects. They are simply liberal political depecptions as elections approach. The poor workers are lured into the belief that the Democrats are doing something for them when the reality is they are just teasing them with promises of something better when the truth is just the opposite.

 

The unemployment is chronic and so deeply imbedded into the current economy that it will require massive new stimuli such as huge employer TAX CREDITS for 25% or more pay raises for existing workers and increases in base and starting wage levels across the great bulk of the economy generally. Unlikely to happen before a new President and Congress get serious. Doubtful in the current electoral circumstances.

[cornographic]

Just have to ask who comes up with such ideas? This country has nearly 50 million adults NOT working and somehow someone wants to make the claim we have a labor shortage! LOL We have seen REAL wages and incomes falling for the past twenty years and literally millions and millions of unemployed and millions more underemployed. A report in the past few days indicated 80% of earners saw their net wages DROP in the past year. We are so far from a tight labor market it is impossible to conceive of seeing a tight labor market anytime within the next 5 years. Net hiring over the past 7 years has been negligible really, barely keeping up with reported population growth and certainly not cutting into the huge chunk of long term unemployed. Large numbers of workers who lost jobs 8 years ago during the initial recession onset who were making middle income wages and salaries ($55,000 and up) have been reemployed (if they have found gainful employment at all) at roughly half the wages. Household incomes have fallen about 10% over the past 7 years on average.

 

These basic economic facts are NOT present in a 'tight labor market' which generally means inadequate workers to fill the demand by employers. Now, there may well be some employers who are not finding sufficient numbers of quality employees ready and willing and able to work at below cost of living wage levels in some cities or even regions. However, the employers would have little or no difficulty in hiring lots of workers ONCE they raise wage levels to meet the levels needed by the hirees.

 

Recent news reports have made big news of California raising its minimum wage to $15 per hour. This would be meaningful and significant IF it were to be effective NOW. Instead, the law raises wages about a $1 per hour PER YEAR so we won't see $15 until around the year 2021 or so. By then, inflation will have stripped the wage to the point it will need to be $21 per hour. This is typical of the minimum wage effects. They are simply liberal political depecptions as elections approach. The poor workers are lured into the belief that the Democrats are doing something for them when the reality is they are just teasing them with promises of something better when the truth is just the opposite.

 

The unemployment is chronic and so deeply imbedded into the current economy that it will require massive new stimuli such as huge employer TAX CREDITS for 25% or more pay raises for existing workers and increases in base and starting wage levels across the great bulk of the economy generally. Unlikely to happen before a new President and Congress get serious. Doubtful in the current electoral circumstances.

Excellent post! Seems more like reality.