NU versus UW - new and improved z-score edition

[beorach]

The numbers below are percentile ratings for team stats, relative to those for all 130 FBS teams counting all games played through last weekend.  Games against lower division opponents (FCS) have not been included.  I may start to reduce the sample size to only games played between conference opponents in a week or two.  If I was to average all the percentile averages for all the individual (nine) categories, NU's stats are 36th (up from 25th before the Purdue game) percentile overall and Wisconsin's are 79th.

 

Passing Defense

completions per game: 20 to 19 (after three and now 4 games played for the good guys) with UW posting 87 (after having played four games)

percentage:                  19 to 36, 64

yards per attempt:        66 to 65, 65

touchdowns per game: 43 to 59, 71

passer rating:                46 to 57, 67

yards per game:            49 to 39, 86

 

Passing Offense

completions per game: 35 to 52, 25

percentage:                  68 to 66, 79

yards per attempt:        18 to 33, 74

touchdowns per game: 17 to 32, 54

passer rating:                22 to 34, 80

yards per game:            15 to 36, 33

 

Rushing Defense

yards per carry:             49 to 47, 46

touchdowns per game:  15 to 12, 92

yards per game:            51 to 52, 72

 

Rushing Offense

yards per carry:              36 to 68, 92

touchdowns per game:  25 to 39, 83

yards per game:             51 to 73, 96

 

Scoring Defense

touchdowns per game:  14 to 21, 92

points per game:            9 to 14, 93

 

Scoring Offense

touchdowns per game:  11 to 25, 68

points per game:            9 to 21, 65

 

Total Defense

yards per play:               58 to 54, 58

yards per game:             50 to 44, 89

plays per game:              36 to 32, 98

 

Total Offense

yards per play:               18 to 46, 86

yards per game:             19 to 56, 82

plays per game:             46 to 66, 47

 

Turnover Margin

fumbles gained per game:           21 to 15, 81

interceptions gained per game:   33 to 26, 65

turnovers gained per game:        19 to 11, 82

fumbles lost per game:                5 to 16, 66

interceptions lost per game:        11 to 20, 73

turnovers lost per game:              3 to 12, 76

turnover margin per game:          3 to 5, 86

 

p.s. - A z-score is a numerical measurement of a value's relationship to the mean in a group of values. If a Z-score is 0, it represents the score as identical to the mean score.  I convert the z-scores for all the stats listed above to percentiles so we can all understand the nature of that value better.

[beorach]

Here are the rankings of all FBS teams, per the average z-score rating of all those (9) categories listed above.  Mathematically, I'm averaging the averages for all those to make this list.

 

Rk        TEAM                              Avg. Avg. Z-Score (all 9 categories)

1	Alabama	1.40
2	UCF	1.11
3	Ohio State	1.08
4	Georgia	0.95
5	Boise State	0.91
6	Michigan	0.88
7	Penn State	0.87
8	North Texas	0.85
9	Oklahoma	0.82
10	North Carolina State	0.81
11	Wisconsin	0.81
12	Appalachian State	0.78
13	Clemson	0.76
14	Colorado	0.71
15	Cincinnati	0.70
16	Miami (Florida)	0.65
17	West Virginia	0.62
18	Notre Dame	0.60
19	Kentucky	0.60
20	Fresno State	0.58
21	Washington State	0.58
22	Oregon	0.56
23	Maryland	0.56
24	Florida	0.49
25	LSU	0.48
26	Arizona State	0.47
27	Syracuse	0.45
28	Indiana	0.43
29	Washington	0.42
30	East Carolina	0.40
31	Mississippi State	0.40
32	Kansas	0.40
33	Utah State	0.38
34	Memphis	0.38
35	Auburn	0.35
36	Oklahoma State	0.35
37	Texas	0.34
38	Houston	0.34
39	Boston College	0.34
40	Missouri	0.31
41	Michigan State	0.28
42	Army	0.28
43	Virginia Tech	0.28
44	South Carolina	0.24
45	Iowa	0.22
46	South Florida	0.21
47	Vanderbilt	0.20
48	UAB	0.19
49	Buffalo	0.19
50	Virginia	0.19
51	Purdue	0.17
52	Georgia Tech	0.15
53	Minnesota	0.15
54	Duke	0.15
55	Southern Mississippi	0.13
56	Texas Tech	0.12
57	Temple	0.11
58	Texas A&M	0.10
59	Hawai'i	0.06
60	Troy	0.03
61	Baylor	0.02
62	California	0.01
63	Florida International	-0.01
64	UNLV	-0.02
65	Stanford	-0.03
66	TCU	-0.03
67	Arizona	-0.03
68	Ohio	-0.05
69	Louisiana Tech	-0.05
70	USC	-0.08
71	Western Michigan	-0.08
72	Georgia Southern	-0.08
73	Wake Forest	-0.09
74	Utah	-0.10
75	Northwestern	-0.10
76	Western Kentucky	-0.10
77	Iowa State	-0.10
78	San Diego State	-0.10
79	Liberty	-0.11
80	Navy	-0.11
81	Arkansas State	-0.12
82	Ball State	-0.15
83	Marshall	-0.19
84	Eastern Michigan	-0.19
85	Nevada	-0.22
86	Florida State	-0.25
87	Northern Illinois	-0.26
88	Miami (Ohio)	-0.29
89	Mississippi	-0.30
90	Tulane	-0.32
91	Coastal Carolina	-0.32
92	BYU	-0.33
93	Akron	-0.36
94	Tulsa	-0.36
95	Nebraska	-0.36
96	New Mexico	-0.39
97	Air Force	-0.39
98	Kansas State	-0.40
99	North Carolina	-0.42
100	Arkansas	-0.43
101	Old Dominion	-0.43
102	Tennessee	-0.44
103	Illinois	-0.47
104	Wyoming	-0.47
105	Texas State	-0.49
106	Florida Atlantic	-0.51
107	Toledo	-0.56
108	Central Michigan	-0.57
109	Pittsburgh	-0.57
110	Charlotte	-0.59
111	UTEP	-0.59
112	Georgia State	-0.61
113	UTSA	-0.61
114	Colorado State	-0.63
115	San Jose State	-0.64
116	SMU	-0.65
117	Louisiana-Monroe	-0.65
118	UCLA	-0.67
119	South Alabama	-0.68
120	Louisville	-0.70
121	Middle Tennessee	-0.72
122	Rice	-0.79
123	Massachusetts	-0.79
124	Oregon State	-0.82
125	New Mexico State	-0.83
126	Rutgers	-0.83
127	Kent State	-0.97
128	Bowling Green	-1.08
129	Louisiana-Lafayette	-1.14
130	Connecticut	-1.64

[beorach]

Here are the defensive rankings per the same method (but just considering four of the nine categories listed in the OP above)...

 

Rk         TEAM                                Avg. Avg. Z-Score (4 defensive categories)

1	Michigan	1.44
2	Kentucky	1.28
3	Iowa	1.16
4	Auburn	1.12
5	Cincinnati	1.12
6	Alabama	1.12
7	Washington State	1.11
8	Washington	1.05
9	Miami (Florida)	1.02
10	North Texas	1.00
11	Mississippi State	0.99
12	Clemson	0.99
13	Wisconsin	0.97
14	Florida	0.94
15	North Carolina State	0.90
16	Minnesota	0.88
17	Georgia	0.86
18	Fresno State	0.84
19	Appalachian State	0.79
20	Michigan State	0.78
21	Utah	0.78
22	Notre Dame	0.76
23	Iowa State	0.76
24	Maryland	0.75
25	LSU	0.73
26	Texas	0.73
27	Southern Mississippi	0.69
28	Indiana	0.68
29	East Carolina	0.65
30	Boise State	0.63
31	Ohio State	0.63
32	West Virginia	0.62
33	Arizona State	0.58
34	TCU	0.55
35	Vanderbilt	0.54
36	Florida State	0.53
37	Colorado	0.52
38	South Carolina	0.52
39	Northern Illinois	0.51
40	Penn State	0.50
41	Virginia	0.46
42	Duke	0.44
43	California	0.42
44	San Diego State	0.37
45	Army	0.36
46	Western Kentucky	0.33
47	Oregon	0.33
48	UAB	0.27
49	Temple	0.26
50	Arkansas	0.24
51	Kansas	0.23
52	Buffalo	0.21
53	Texas A&M	0.21
54	USC	0.21
55	Northwestern	0.20
56	UCF	0.16
57	Stanford	0.16
58	Oklahoma	0.15
59	Virginia Tech	0.13
60	Utah State	0.12
61	Marshall	0.12
62	Central Michigan	0.09
63	Texas State	0.08
64	Tulsa	0.04
65	South Florida	0.03
66	Miami (Ohio)	0.02
67	Kansas State	0.01
68	Eastern Michigan	0.00
69	Oklahoma State	-0.01
70	BYU	-0.02
71	Syracuse	-0.03
72	Missouri	-0.03
73	Boston College	-0.03
74	Baylor	-0.05
75	Tennessee	-0.06
76	Louisiana Tech	-0.07
77	Arizona	-0.09
78	Purdue	-0.10
79	Wyoming	-0.12
80	Memphis	-0.15
81	Florida International	-0.16
82	Troy	-0.17
83	North Carolina	-0.18
84	Akron	-0.18
85	UTEP	-0.21
86	UTSA	-0.23
87	UNLV	-0.23
88	Louisville	-0.23
89	Georgia Southern	-0.25
90	Arkansas State	-0.27
91	Georgia Tech	-0.31
92	Ball State	-0.32
93	Charlotte	-0.34
94	Tulane	-0.35
95	Nebraska	-0.41
96	New Mexico State	-0.43
97	Navy	-0.50
98	Rutgers	-0.51
99	Middle Tennessee	-0.54
100	UCLA	-0.55
101	Nevada	-0.57
102	San Jose State	-0.58
103	Western Michigan	-0.61
104	Wake Forest	-0.63
105	Liberty	-0.63
106	SMU	-0.63
107	Pittsburgh	-0.67
108	Hawai'i	-0.68
109	Mississippi	-0.75
110	Air Force	-0.76
111	Old Dominion	-0.81
112	Coastal Carolina	-0.82
113	Louisiana-Monroe	-0.83
114	Texas Tech	-0.84
115	New Mexico	-0.87
116	Ohio	-0.92
117	Houston	-0.93
118	Colorado State	-1.01
119	Georgia State	-1.07
120	South Alabama	-1.09
121	Illinois	-1.14
122	Florida Atlantic	-1.16
123	Rice	-1.36
124	Toledo	-1.47
125	Massachusetts	-1.48
126	Bowling Green	-1.48
127	Kent State	-1.62
128	Oregon State	-1.68
129	Louisiana-Lafayette	-1.88
130	Connecticut	-2.56

 

[Huskers93-97]

Lets see the Z rating for a few ALL TIME TEAMS and how they rank. Lets put the Z to the test. Alabama has dominated the decade but his current team is the only one that belongs in that group below if they finish the year like they are playing now.

 

95 Huskers

01 Miami

04 USC

05 Texas

97 Huskers

[beorach]

This is the offensive pecking order, then, using just the 4 offensive categories...

 

Rk           TEAM                        Avg. Avg. Z-Score (4 offensive categories)

1	UCF	1.93
2	Alabama	1.85
3	Oklahoma	1.63
4	Ohio State	1.62
5	Houston	1.61
6	Penn State	1.45
7	Boise State	1.25
8	Texas Tech	1.24
9	Appalachian State	1.08
10	Memphis	1.05
11	Georgia	1.00
12	Colorado	0.95
13	Oregon	0.90
14	Hawai'i	0.86
15	Missouri	0.86
16	Oklahoma State	0.85
17	Clemson	0.83
18	West Virginia	0.83
19	Ohio	0.82
20	Syracuse	0.78
21	North Texas	0.72
22	North Carolina State	0.69
23	Wisconsin	0.66
24	Boston College	0.66
25	Georgia Tech	0.63
26	Utah State	0.62
27	Purdue	0.54
28	Michigan	0.50
29	Wake Forest	0.49
30	Western Michigan	0.47
31	Notre Dame	0.45
32	Fresno State	0.41
33	South Florida	0.39
34	Liberty	0.38
35	Washington State	0.38
36	Cincinnati	0.38
37	Miami (Florida)	0.36
38	Arizona State	0.30
39	East Carolina	0.30
40	Maryland	0.30
41	Troy	0.28
42	Army	0.28
43	UNLV	0.25
44	Baylor	0.25
45	Toledo	0.22
46	Virginia Tech	0.21
47	South Carolina	0.20
48	LSU	0.20
49	Florida Atlantic	0.20
50	Texas A&M	0.19
51	Florida International	0.19
52	Buffalo	0.18
53	Indiana	0.16
54	Coastal Carolina	0.15
55	Kansas	0.14
56	Navy	0.13
57	Nevada	0.12
58	Kentucky	0.10
59	Mississippi	0.08
60	Arizona	0.06
61	New Mexico	0.05
62	UAB	0.04
63	Virginia	0.02
64	Texas	-0.01
65	Illinois	-0.02
66	Oregon State	-0.06
67	Temple	-0.08
68	Michigan State	-0.09
69	Washington	-0.11
70	Massachusetts	-0.12
71	Ball State	-0.12
72	Nebraska	-0.13
73	Florida	-0.13
74	Mississippi State	-0.14
75	Georgia Southern	-0.17
76	Air Force	-0.17
77	Vanderbilt	-0.17
78	Arkansas State	-0.18
79	TCU	-0.18
80	Louisiana Tech	-0.19
81	Old Dominion	-0.20
82	Southern Mississippi	-0.22
83	USC	-0.23
84	Duke	-0.28
85	Rice	-0.29
86	Georgia State	-0.29
87	California	-0.35
88	Colorado State	-0.36
89	Marshall	-0.37
90	Northwestern	-0.38
91	Tulane	-0.39
92	North Carolina	-0.41
93	South Alabama	-0.42
94	Kent State	-0.46
95	Stanford	-0.46
96	Minnesota	-0.48
97	Tulsa	-0.50
98	Louisiana-Monroe	-0.51
99	Eastern Michigan	-0.51
100	Auburn	-0.51
101	Western Kentucky	-0.55
102	Pittsburgh	-0.57
103	Tennessee	-0.59
104	San Diego State	-0.59
105	Iowa	-0.62
106	Louisiana-Lafayette	-0.64
107	Miami (Ohio)	-0.70
108	Florida State	-0.72
109	Bowling Green	-0.77
110	BYU	-0.81
111	Middle Tennessee	-0.84
112	Connecticut	-0.86
113	Akron	-0.90
114	Utah	-0.91
115	UCLA	-0.92
116	SMU	-0.92
117	Charlotte	-0.93
118	Wyoming	-0.94
119	UTEP	-0.94
120	Arkansas	-0.97
121	Iowa State	-0.98
122	Kansas State	-0.98
123	San Jose State	-1.09
124	Louisville	-1.14
125	Rutgers	-1.14
126	Texas State	-1.15
127	UTSA	-1.18
128	Northern Illinois	-1.18
129	Central Michigan	-1.19
130	New Mexico State	-1.31

[4skers89]

I don’t like the numbers, can you crunch them again?

[beorach]

Here are the conference rankings for the nine categories...

 

Passing Offense

Rk     Team               Avg. Z-Score

1	Ohio State	1.85
2	Purdue	0.79
3	Indiana	0.47
4	Michigan State	0.28
5	Michigan	0.25
6	Wisconsin	0.22
7	Penn State	0.21
8	Northwestern	-0.12
9	Nebraska	-0.20
10	Iowa	-0.51
11	Minnesota	-0.66
12	Illinois	-0.68
13	Maryland	-0.85
14	Rutgers	-1.40

 

Passing Defense

Rk     Team               Avg. Z-Score

1	Michigan	1.31
2	Indiana	1.01
3	Minnesota	0.90
4	Ohio State	0.76
5	Wisconsin	0.66
6	Penn State	0.52
7	Maryland	0.50
8	Iowa	0.44
9	Nebraska	-0.12
10	Purdue	-0.20
11	Rutgers	-0.21
12	Northwestern	-0.24
13	Michigan State	-0.36
14	Illinois	-0.76

 

Rushing Offense

Rk     Team               Avg. Z-Score

1	Penn State	2.12
2	Maryland	1.57
3	Wisconsin	1.37
4	Illinois	0.86
5	Michigan	0.80
6	Ohio State	0.67
7	Purdue	0.35
8	Nebraska	0.27
9	Indiana	-0.06
10	Iowa	-0.34
11	Michigan State	-0.43
12	Minnesota	-0.46
13	Rutgers	-0.60
14	Northwestern	-0.76

 

Rushing Defense

Rk     Team               Avg. Z-Score

1	Michigan State	1.96
2	Michigan	1.33
3	Iowa	1.22
4	Maryland	1.14
5	Wisconsin	0.63
6	Northwestern	0.51
7	Penn State	0.44
8	Minnesota	0.35
9	Ohio State	0.28
10	Indiana	0.15
11	Purdue	0.02
12	Nebraska	-0.40
13	Rutgers	-0.71
14	Illinois	-1.32

 

Scoring Offense

Rk     Team               Avg. Z-Score

1	Penn State	2.39
2	Ohio State	2.35
3	Michigan	0.94
4	Maryland	0.63
5	Wisconsin	0.43
6	Purdue	0.12
7	Michigan State	-0.01
8	Indiana	-0.03
9	Minnesota	-0.33
10	Illinois	-0.58
11	Northwestern	-0.59
12	Nebraska	-0.74
13	Iowa	-0.92
14	Rutgers	-1.30

 

Scoring Defense

Rk     Team               Avg. Z-Score

1	Iowa	1.58
2	Wisconsin	1.45
3	Michigan	1.41
4	Minnesota	1.12
5	Ohio State	0.98
6	Michigan State	0.86
7	Penn State	0.72
8	Indiana	0.71
9	Maryland	0.55
10	Purdue	0.28
11	Northwestern	0.24
12	Rutgers	-0.82
13	Nebraska	-0.95
14	Illinois	-0.96

 

Total Offense

Rk     Team               Avg. Z-Score

1	Ohio State	1.62
2	Penn State	1.08
3	Purdue	0.88
4	Wisconsin	0.64
5	Illinois	0.31
6	Indiana	0.25
7	Nebraska	0.16
8	Michigan	0.01
9	Northwestern	-0.04
10	Maryland	-0.13
11	Michigan State	-0.20
12	Minnesota	-0.45
13	Iowa	-0.71
14	Rutgers	-1.25

 

Total Defense

Rk     Team               Avg. Z-Score

1	Michigan	1.70
2	Iowa	1.42
3	Minnesota	1.15
4	Wisconsin	1.15
5	Indiana	0.86
6	Maryland	0.80
7	Michigan State	0.67
8	Ohio State	0.48
9	Penn State	0.32
10	Northwestern	0.29
11	Nebraska	-0.18
12	Rutgers	-0.32
13	Purdue	-0.51
14	Illinois	-1.54

 

Turnover Margin

Rk     Team               Avg. Z-Score

1	Maryland	0.87
2	Ohio State	0.72
3	Wisconsin	0.71
4	Indiana	0.47
5	Illinois	0.43
6	Michigan	0.12
7	Penn State	0.08
8	Northwestern	-0.17
9	Purdue	-0.21
10	Michigan State	-0.22
11	Minnesota	-0.22
12	Iowa	-0.25
13	Rutgers	-0.81
14	Nebraska	-1.09

 

I'm thinking I should have just made one thread for each of these and kept adding to it all year so we could just scroll back up and see how the stats changed...

[beorach]

14 minutes ago, 4skers89 said:

I don’t like the numbers, can you crunch them again?

 

Agreed!  At least they're largely better than last week's (at a glance, though I see Rutgers got past us in the final category for the B1G)...

[beorach]

56 minutes ago, Huskers93-97 said:

Lets see the Z rating for a few ALL TIME TEAMS and how they rank. Lets put the Z to the test. Alabama has dominated the decade but his current team is the only one that belongs in that group below if they finish the year like they are playing now.

 

95 Huskers

01 Miami

04 USC

05 Texas

97 Huskers

 

That's not a bad idea.  We can only measure how special a team was relative to the teams that were playing in the same seasons, of course.  I'm not sure I can find a database that already takes out the cupcake games then...  When I've done this kind of thing, it has generally been to compare Husker teams in the past.

[4skers89]

35 minutes ago, beorach said:

 

Agreed!  At least they're largely better than last week's (at a glance, though I see Rutgers got past us in the final category for the B1G)...

You could just consult the ESPN bottom 10. Rutgers at #7 and we’re included at #5 Arkansas Corn-Bruins. I’m not sure if being #5 is better or worse.

[beorach]

42 minutes ago, 4skers89 said:

You could just consult the ESPN bottom 10. Rutgers at #7 and we’re included at #5 Arkansas Corn-Bruins. I’m not sure if being #5 is better or worse.

 

I haven't read anything from the WWL in awhile.  It would seem that's for the best.

[dvdcrr]

Z Score dont matter to the committee.  And if you dont matter to the committee you arent relevant.  Here is whats relevant:  Alabama with up to two losses.  Clemson with up to one loss.  Flashiest B12 team with best record. Maybe a B1G team  if it is Ohio St ( Urban) but if Ohio st gets beat twice then the B1G spot goes to the next best SEC Team. B1G champion be damned.

So to recap here are your 4 spots:

1.  Alabama (Saban says STOP ASKING especially about the subject of quitting on the Dolphins and lying)

2. Clemson bringing that airplane home on one engine

3. Hottest Big12 team running through that conference like crap through a goose.

4 Ohio St unless they have 2 losses then this spot belongs to the best SEC team other than Alabama.

Caveat:  Wisc is now recognized as a sentimental favorite so they might get in but I doubt it.

[beorach]

11 hours ago, dvdcrr said:

Z Score dont matter to the committee.  And if you dont matter to the committee you arent relevant. 

 

We can still bet on the rest of the college football games.  I like to know how our performances are measuring up relative to those of our neighbors and rivals, too.

 

As for the playoff we have, you seem pretty certain Notre Dame won't win out...

[dvdcrr]

9 hours ago, beorach said:

 

We can still bet on the rest of the college football games.  I like to know how our performances are measuring up relative to those of our neighbors and rivals, too.

 

As for the playoff we have, you seem pretty certain Notre Dame won't win out...

At least the BCS had trust in the impartial computers.  Without the computers the 2001 Huskers would have been watching the NC game on TV.  

Football man dont know or care about math.

If Nebraska sits home in '01 would the next team up have done better against MIA?

[beorach]

13 hours ago, dvdcrr said:

At least the BCS had trust in the impartial computers.  Without the computers the 2001 Huskers would have been watching the NC game on TV.  

Football man dont know or care about math.

If Nebraska sits home in '01 would the next team up have done better against MIA?

 

You parrot that stats don't matter and then laud the BCS for having "trust in the impartial computers"?  Plenty of football players know about math, too, and it's not like this is quantum mechanics.  It's pretty much Statistics 101 fodder.