Dr. Strangelove

Yeah, noted truth teller Vladimir Putin certainly has no vested interest in helping Trump and Republicans win again by tapping into the gullibility of conservative America. I mean, who are you going to believe? Vladimir Putin or the 275,000 dead Russian soldiers currently fertilizing Ukrainian soil largely because of American military equipment and intelligence delivered by the Biden Administration? Honestly Archy1221, and I mean this sincerely, what you believe in is not only bad for America. But your understanding of the world around you is deeply flawed, and when you take that flawed and seriously under developed understanding of the world and fill out a ballot it's bad for the world. So, please, stop doing it.

This is a funny way of saying "tapped into rural white voter xenophobia, stupidity, and anger" by saying and doing things Republicans were worried about doing for decades. Trump just had the shameless ability to tap into it. Furthermore, the extreme irony of you saying Trump supporters don't like it when elites like Hillary Clinton think they're above the law is... beyond parody. You, a two time Trump voter, grifted into supporting a rapist-career-criminal-and-con-artist, are actually saying it's because Trump supporters care about politicians following the law? Please Archy1221, I beg you, stop being involved in politics. It's not for you. And understand that there is absolutely nothing wrong with that. Stop watching Newsmax, end your Brietbart subscription, and spend your emotional energy on your family or something. Whatever it is, stop voting. Disengage from politics all together.

He's pretty far gone. But that's sort of par for the course for two time Trump voters. Noted arm of liberal propaganda Fox News with this gem.

I don't know what this means. I'm not sure what point you're trying to make here. The share of college educated voters in Colorado has increased dramatically since 2010. The share of college educated voters moving to Phoneix and Atlanta are increasing dramatically as well. The reason Biden won Arizona and Georgia isn't because he changed the hearts and minds of the voters in those states, opinions cultivated over decades, it's because people from liberal states moved there. Race baiting voters is a thing Republicans do well. These voters aren't historic democrats, they are low propensity voters who don't care about or follow politics until they get angry at something - in this case immigrants - and they vote accordingly.

This, my friends, is what we call projection. I do not believe that Trump won in 2016 because of collusion with Russia - they helped his campaign by targeting his gullible voters just like they're doing now. You voted for a rapist and a career conman, and everybody with a half dozen functioning neurons told you it was a bad idea to vote for him and you did it anyway. Please, for the good of America, stop voting. You've done enough damage to our institutions as it is.

The funny thing is, let's hypothetically assume that this is primo-grade-A-Columbian cocaine. In what world does this matter to the current President?

This is fundamentally untrue. Colorado, for example, didn't switch from swing state to becoming solidly blue because of Democrats changing the minds of Reagan voters from the 1980s. Colorado is blue because young, college educated people have moved into the state from other states essentially out numbering them. Texas is turning blue not because Democrats are mass changing the minds of Republican voters who've lived in the state for decades, it's because people are moving there and are beginning to outnumber them. The same thing is true for other swing states that are now Red, such as Iowa or Ohio. College educated voters are leaving those states, making them redder and redder over time. States change largely because of demographic shifts over time, not because huge swaths of the electorate suddenly change their political views. What Trump and the MAGA movement have successfully done is awaken huge swaths of voters who didn't care much or participate in politics prior to 2016. By mobilizing an easily manipulated cohort of voters, he has cultivated a powerful political movement that allows him to be competitive in elections. This has also contributed to the red shift in former swing states. I've told you previously I voted for Ben Sasse in 2020 because his opponent was terrible. Additionally, you currently believe that Biden is part of a large corruption scandal despite huge swaths of evidence - admitted to even by Republicans - that it is largely made up, without evidence, and includes no crimes. But you believe in this in order to reconcile your own support for corrupt candidates as a two time Trump voter. This makes you a poster child for extreme partisanship studied by academics who are amazed that voters can construct their own reality, devoid of facts or a basis in reason, in order to fit the world around their poor political preferences.

I'm pretty sure I've said many times that in the aggregate, voter preferences do not change enough to win elections. Individual voters change their mind in small numbers, particularly those plugged into politics enough to post about it on the internet. This is much less true today than it was 40 years ago. Partisanship has increases dramatically since the 1980s. You're kind of the poster child for believing in your political beliefs even when they're completely disconnected from reality. It's kind of funny you, of all people, are posting about voters changing their minds. Also, to be clear, voters vote preferences stick once they reach their mid 20s. Young people do change their minds but it's becoming less common, voting preferences are becoming more rigid.

It's absolutely wild that the border was an orderly and non-chaotic place prior to 2021. I'm not an expert, but this is news to me.

I think this is a fair take. We'll get an idea over the summer if Trump's legal woes actually start to erode his electoral support. Being liable for rape and defaming his victim seem to have little to no effect on his support thus far. He's also likely to get a bump when SCOTUS rules in his favor in the Colorado case. One main point you make which is completely valid is that the average voter is still unaware that Trump has essentially clinched the nomination. Polling this far out isn't accurate, and the true gravity of a 2020 rematch may not be reflected in polling thus far.

Just so I'm keeping score, the main witnesses to this entire charade was a Chinese spy and a Russian spy? I had no idea the Democrat-cabal reached such depths. Joe "The Big Guy" Biden's corruption is so deep, it ties to both the Chinese and Russian espionage efforts.

While that is funny, Lorewarn is correct. States change who they vote for for a variety of factors. Demographic shifts, education polarization, and other factors have far more of an effect on why Iowa and Colorado are no longer swing states than it has to do with voters in those states changing their minds election to election. The voting electorate isn't identical in each state since people move, new voters reach the age of 18, or low propensity voters who rarely vote suddenly get involved in politics (Trump is excellent at this). I think the election this year is high variable and external factors - mainly Donald Trump's legal issues - make this election unique. My opinion would be, if Donald Trump's legal woes are going to harm his electoral prospects, I think we would be seeing that in the polls already. Right now, I don't think Trump voters really care. They're going to passionately vote for him. Biden voters (and this is a problem with the coalition that makes up the Democratic Party) are much less enthusiastic about 2024 than they were in 2020. He's going to have to hope that enthusiasm after the Dobbs decision, that PTSD from the moronic Trump Presidency, and other factors can motivate his voters to show up once again in 2024. I have my doubts that the Biden base is as motivated as the Trump base. Of course, they could move to nominate another candidate to help alleviate the enthusiasm problem. But Gavin Newsome is a coastal elite who does not help their chances of winning crucial Midwest states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Gretchen Whitmer helps solidify the midwest vote, but nominating a white woman is dicey. Nominating her hurts their prospects among minority groups, their chances of winning in Georgia/Nevada. Candidates like Pete Buttigieg suffer from similar problems, and nominating Michelle Obama is a weird pipe dream. I don't think there's a candidate they can nominate that gives them a better shot at winning than Biden, for all his electoral flaws.

I remember you also saying that Donald Trump might not win the Republican nomination as recently as like a month ago, despite it being glaringly obvious that he's by far the most popular candidate for Republicans. You just seem to be convinced that the personal experiences you have with people and extrapolating those experiences out to the rest of America means that Biden is going to win easily. I'm just trying to tell you that this is not at all true. Biden is currently in "loses the electoral college in a blowout" territory. Right now, improving sentiment in the public means he's trending from "loses in electoral college blowout" and trending towards " decisive popular vote victory but narrowly loses electoral college" ala Hillary in 2016. That doesn't mean he can't win, but that he's a slight underdog based on current trends.

As a whole, voters don't change their minds. They vote the same way each election. NOTE: That doesn't mean not a single person doesn't change their minds; just that not enough of them do for it to matter when it determines who wins a state's electoral college votes. The reason Joe got more voters than Hillary in 2016 isn't because he changed the minds of millions of 2016 Trump voters. What he did do was get people to vote for him who did not vote for any candidate in 2020. The pandemic and a chaotic time for America allowed him to barely win because voters were highly engaged and millions of people who didn't vote in 2016 voted in 2020. The reason Trump can win in 2024 without changing any minds is because his base of support is extremely loyal. He's very likely to get similar passionate turnout that he got in 2020. Biden can lose in 2024 because the base that carried him to victory may decide to stay home, that politics are exhausting, or that they are so uninterested in either candidate that they give up. In that scenario, not a single voter has to change their vote in order for Trump to win. Currently, Trump is winning by ~2%. Biden needs to change his poll numbers to be up by ~5% to win. He needs AT LEAST to be up by ~3% on election day to have a prayer of winning. Even with improving attitudes towards the economy, swinging national polls by 7% is going to be a difficult task.

The issue with rushing for Nebraska is that in terms of raw rushing yards, they did well. But it wasn't a particularly efficient play and they relied on the QB run game to move the ball. Without the threat of a QB run, which I don't think Nebraska will want to do at all with Dylan, is how much they can get out of the traditional running game. Nebraska has been average to below average doing that. I think you're correct, they've tried to address these problems by brining in an RB transfer from Oregon, and getting WR transfers from Texas and Wake Forest. They brought in an OL from Florida. They realized that these were problems. The question is if they'll be successful in integrating these players in ways that help the team. I don't think the coaching staff on offense is particularly good, and I question their ability to both put players in positions to succeed and to call plays that are complimentary to one another and help the team win football games.

An O/U of 7.5 seems absolutely insane. It's hard to see 8 wins on this schedule. If the QB play improves, which it should, this team should win 6 games. There are a lot of question marks about the development of receivers, getting a reliable rushing yards from the RBs, if the OL can improve from merely being serviceable to good, and if the Secondary can improve. Like last year, Nebraska needs to be bowl eligible by Halloween. If not they're in trouble. Unfortunately for Nebraska, Satterfield is still on the staff so I think they finish 5-7.

This is not true. He won by ~20k votes spread around 3 states. Out of ~155 million votes cast. That's a margin of 0.00013%. Razor thin. The next election will be similar. In elections, voters vote for the same individuals as they did the last time, the vast majority of the time. Voter preference is extremely rigid and opinions don't change. What decides elections is which voters are motivated to turnout. Candidates lose not because minds change, but because their voters stay home. The individuals who do truly change their vote, and there are not many, are the least informed voters. They either have no idea that Trump has legal problems or they chalk it up to normal politics. These few voters vote based on their personal economic situations are doing in the 4 weeks leading up to election day. The election is going to be close enough that these individuals could decide the election. But their opinions aren't changeable because they don't really have any. It's going to matter what gas prices do or if they pay more for their most common purchases.

"Decriminalizing" is easily one of the stupidest ideas that have come from Left Wing circles, and that is saying something. The reality is that dealing with drug use, mental health, or what have you requires massive investment in rehabilitation, crisis management, and mental health centers that cost far more than tax payers at willing to spend.

What I'm saying is that they're are millions of voters, and that the vast majority are going to vote the same way in 2024 as they did in 2020. Are some people changing their minds? Sure. Is it enough to swing a state? No. The winner of the election is going to be whichever candidate has motivated voters. Donald Trump commands a horde of voters who are going to show up to the polls. The question is if Biden voters are equally motivated. I think that's not the case, personally, and therefore think his odds of winning are lower. It came from a Democrat controlled Senate, but the bill largely captures most of the policy goals of the GOP and is easily the most concessions they will ever get from Democrats. The GOP also asked for Ukraine/Other aid to be tied to it. Congratulations on your party killing the only immigration bill they will ever get. But that's sort of the GOP in a nutshell, a morally bankrupt toxic sludge of a party who's only policy goal they deliver on is cutting taxes for the wealthy. Sort of crazy how every one of their Administration ends up with the economy in a recession going back 30 years.

That's because they don't, the United States is very big. Changing the minds of posters on the internet doesn't help when the vast majority don't pay much attention to politics, aren't plugged into reality, and who's opinions aren't don't change much. Like I said, hopeless. Exhibit A above. No matter how many Republicans come forward and say that the bill was killed because Trump told them to kill it, the MAGA believers won't change their minds. @teachercd you seem to think that pointing to reality is enough for these voters, it isn't. This poster is a perfect example of how voters craft their own reality, and there are millions just like him.

The issue is that Biden can point to the GOP nuking their own border bill all he wants, there is no amount of messaging that will get through to voters. Simply pointing to reality is not enough to sway voters - look at the conservative posters on this message board. It's a hopeless cause.

Yes, this what is known as humor. I know that if Newsmax didn't tell you to laugh that you won't, but really I'm making an attempt to show what really motivates the median voter - the answer to which is astoundingly simple.

I think that this had already served its purpose. If you think for a picosecond that this will change the minds of voters, look no further than the brainwashed Trump voters on this board.

It really tickles me that you twice voted for a rapist and you're not self aware which to see the irony in all the weird Twitter posts you link in these threads. Like, maybe, just maybe, the people who voted for the rapist career criminal who tried to subvert Democracy aren't really people we should take seriously?

It's possible, but the electability of all other Democrats is weak. They all suffer from the same systemic disadvantages. It's not like Gavin Newsom or somebody is suddenly going to make moronic voters reconsider the rapist they were poised to vote for. Republican leaning voters aren't suddenly going to snap into reality - they're to far gone to be reached. Just sit back, relax, and take comfort in knowing that the election is going to be decided by a few thousand voters who vote entirely based on if gas rises or falls a few cents in the month prior to election day.