Dr. Strangelove

Honestly, just dramatically lower your expectations for what matters to the median voter. They don't think and fill in a voting bubble. They think that "both sides are bad". Biden has "legal trouble" and so does Trump. Trump was found guilty of a weird crime but that was probably just politics. They think Biden would be found guilty if he went to court too. They then ask themselves if it cost $8 more dollars to fill up their F-250 Extended Cab/Hyundai Odyssey Minivan in October. That's pretty much it. Once you give up hope for the median voter it becomes a lot easier to understand the political climate we find ourselves in. Republican voters will never leave their party, no matter how morally bankrupt it becomes. You're then left with a very small number of persuadable voters who truly do not pay attention to nor care about each political candidate. They are what I describe above.

Unless polls consistently show Biden ahead nationally by ~5%, the race is comfortably in the hands of Donald Trump. Any national popular vote lead by Trump = Electoral College Blowout <- We are here now Minor Biden lead (1-3%) = Popular vote victory for Biden; Electoral College win for Trump <- We are trending this way by election day. 2016 part deux. Biden Lead of 4-5% = Close Electoral College Victory <- It seems extremely difficult to get to these margins. It may not be possible.

Joe Biden: *oversees gigantic economic growth, huge job numbers, wages out pacing inflation for months* Trump: *Rapist who defamed his victim, owes her $83 million dollars* American Public according to polls: Trump - 48% Biden - 45%

Sure, Joe Biden is overseeing the best economic performance on the developed world. But as an average voter living in America's heartland, something about Trumps rapist, moronic, selfish and unhinged nature speaks to my Christian sensibilities. Him facing 91 felony counts and his genuine disdain for Democracy are simply unexpected bonuses.

The response is appropriate and struck the goldilocks zone of a proportional response to 3 dead Americans. It was restrained enough to prevent regional escalation but strong enough to send a message.

I really feel like I'm alone in thinking that Trump has a really good chance. I have a hard time understanding why.

This is... questionable at best. There aren't going to be many ways in which Democrats win North Carolina and lose Arizona. Arizona is to the left of NC. I don't think anybody who studies elections would make that call.

Honestly, it's even less. Biden win margin: Wisconsin: 20,682 Arizona: 10,447 Georgia: 11,779 Total: 42,908 To win those states, Trump would only need to flip exactly half of those votes in each state. Remember that each flipped vote results in +1 for Trump and -1 for Biden. The vote margin in 2020 wasn't 44,000, it was less than half that: 21,457 votes.

Trump and Republicans deserve credit for properly stimulating the economy, likely staving off catastrophic economic consequences. Inflation was predictable and an accepted outcome of this strategy - The FED openly said as much in early 2020. The funny part is that Conservative dogma prevents Republicans from properly taking credit on this, since deficit spending and leveraging government debt run counter to their beliefs. They simultaneously did the right thing but also can't talk about it, which is funny.

Certainly possible. I think the Republican Party would put more resources to win over voters in those states. Currently, they mostly invest in only competitive house districts.

Yeah, Democrats run up the score in a few populous states. But the reality is that if they could trade ~1 million voters in California for 20,000 voters in Wisconsin, they'd do it in a heartbeat. If they could trade ~500,000 votes in NY for 50,000 in Georgia, they'd do it.

This is just one poll. But even within it, Republican Consumer Sentiment has a high of ~125 to a low of ~35, a 90 point swing. Democrats had a low of ~55 and a high of ~105, a swing of 50. I did my best to eyeball those numbers on the chart that doesn't have great intervals, but you get the point. It's good that consumer sentiment among Republicans is rising recently, however! But over time, their swings are much more extreme than other groups. Their highs are higher and their lows are lower. The same thing is true for Presidential Approval Ratings, is the Country on the 'Wrong Track', and other positive/negative questions.

The same states that were decided by razor thin margins in the 2020 election: Arizona Georgia Wisconsin Two other states of importance that may flip are: Pennsylvania Nevada The reason why I think Biden is a slight underdog is simply because the margins he has to win by nationally - approximately 5% popular vote victory - may simply not be possible or viable in a hyper-polarized environment. The Bias of the Electoral College currently favors Republican candidates. Consider the state of Wisconsin: 2016 - Wisconsin finished R+0.7. The National Popular Vote: finished D+2.1. Therefore, Wisconsin was R+2.8 compared to the rest of the country 2020 - Wisconsin finished D+0.65. The National Popular Vote: finished D+4.5. Therefore, Wisconsin was R+3.75. Even though Joe Biden won the state, he had to win the national popular vote by 2% more than Hillary Clinton in 2016. If a similar trend continues into 2024, Joe Biden would have to win a HUGE popular vote victory to keep up with the rightward shift of the state. By 2028, Wisconsin is probably similar to a state like Iowa or Ohio that is no longer competitive. There are similar shifts going on in all the swing states (Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada shifting to the right; Georgia and Arizona shifting to the left). The question is: which trends are happening faster? What kind of margin does a Democrat have to win by in order to win an Electoral College victory? Unless polls are showing robust strength in Biden - a consistent lead of 4-5% - he's likely to lose. Any polling strength of Trump that shows him favored by any amount would mean he wins in an electoral college blowout. Polls that show Biden winning by a small amount - 1-2% - probably indicates a similar result to the 2016 election. A robust popular vote victory but an electoral college loss.

This is getting funny. I'm not sure about this. Biden is going to have to win the popular vote by ~5%, margins that are extremely high just to barely win an electoral college victory. The electorate is to partisan for the margins to be much higher than that. If Biden only manages to win the popular vote by 4%, he easily loses.

This is a well stated and perfect response. However, it's well known that the Middle East is a bastion of stability and is known for its long periods of peace and collaboration with the West. Any deviation from this list be Biden's fault. No, my opinion will not be changed based on well sourced facts or articulated arguments as seen above. And yes, I plan on voting based on this.

This tweet has all the seriousness of the "I did that!" stickers (that have mysteriously disappeared) slapped on gas pumps last year.

She's smart enough not to get overtly involved in politics. But she's smart enough to understand that her fans - primarily women aged 15-40 are also what, D+40 as a voting bloc? Simply by encouraging voting itself would be helping Joe Biden. She can do that by not even picking a side.

I hope you were an investor my man, good call. This is funny, but ultimately the MAGA diehards will eat this up. Trump is still polling amazingly well. Until his multiple criminal indictments actually weaken his electoral prospects - they have not thus far - he's still favored. Keep in mind, to be favored Biden probably needs a 5% lead in polls and for that to translate into a 5% popular vote victory. Any less and we're looking at a repeat of 2016. He's currently down ~1-3%. He needs a huge swing to his favor.

I was specifically talking about bad guys not realizing they're bad guys in various political movements. I wouldn't classify any of those movements as "the bad guy". Most people attribute the opposite side of many obvious good movements - like Civil Rights - simply through identity politics.

I'm mostly referring to political movements. It's not like the 10s of millions of Americans that opposed the Civil Rights movement in the 1960s knew they were on the wrong side of history, or hundreds of other movements with obvious right on wrong sides.

Anything but admit their voting choices are terrible. Nobody in history realizes they're the bad guys at the time. They all rationalize their choices and beliefs by whatever means necessary. Eventually, history will remember and judge these people properly.

This is next level cognitive dissonance. I don't know what to tell you. It's been explained to you that Bill has shortcomings, that Senate Republicans decided to negotiate on a new, stand alone bill tying Ukraine aid with Immigration. You can't take H.R.2 and combine it with Ukraine Aid. Just accept that the central (only?) thing Republicans can campaign on is all a ruse to anger farm their voters.

We'll see in the Biden Economy. You can't even rape somebody and defame them anymore. It'll cost you $83 million. No wonder Americans think the economy is bad.

Extreme political polarization makes modern approval/disapproval ratings dubious. Both sides are guilty, but Republicans are more extreme. This leads to 90% of Republicans to report disapproval/wrong track/anything negative. It's pretty difficult for any President to stay above 50% for more than the first few months of their Presidency. This is genuinely hilarious.

The funniest part is that 75 million Americans are going to vote for this guy and we have to pretend that these are serious people and that their political views are balanced. Donald Trump, no matter what, has a 45% chance to win as a low. His current chances of winning are 50-55%.