A texans view ( very long but a good read)

[huskernumerouno]

I recieved this in a email today,

Enjoy and

GBR

 

Game 8 10/21/2006

 

The University of Texas Longhorns

 

vs.

 

Nebraska Cornhuskers

 

 

 

Overview:

 

Texas rolls into Lincoln with a 5 game winning streak and a top 10 ranking. Nebraska also comes in with a 5 game winning streak and a top 20 ranking. Texas has played two very memorable games in its last 2 trips to Lincoln, and this one promises to be no different. Many people believe that this is a preview of the Big 12 title game in KC, so we may be seeing just the first round of a classic heavyweight battle.

 

This is a battle between two of the most storied and most successful programs in NCAA history. However, this game will bear very little resemblance to the past 6 meetings. Texas leads the series 5-1 since the formation of the Big 12 conference, but this is the first time Nebraska will not be running it’s traditional power option running game when these two teams battle. Bill Callahan became head coach the year after Texas last met Nebraska . Gone is the option, in comes the West Coast offense. Nebraska struggled through two growing years with the system as they both switched their mindset as a team, as well as their personnel. In the third year, it would appear that the changes have taken hold as Nebraska ranks 11th in rushing offense, 28th in passing offense, 8th in total offense and 9th in scoring offense. The defense is also coming around, at least the run defense is.

 

Texas has its own issues. Trying to adapt to a new QB has left Texas in an identity crisis. While Texas is #2 in scoring, they have left fans pining for a more explosive and consistent offense. Texas is 20th in rushing and 57th in passing, but they have struggled at times to get the ball downfield against the stronger teams. Meanwhile the pass defense, thought to be the strength of the team at the beginning of the season, has gone in the tank lately. Texas is 77th in pass defense and has been susceptible to the big play. Texas ’ secondary is hobbled, as 3 of 4 starters have missed starts recently due to injury.

 

 

 

 

 

Storylines to follow:

 

1) Will the weather be a factor? Forecast as of Tuesday night is for cool weather, rain and wind. So who does that favor? Neither team really. Actually, a windy, wet track would seem to neutralize Texas ’ speed advantage. Both teams are balanced on offense and both teams can play a slow it down run game or an air it out passing attack.

 

 

 

2) Can the Texas DB’s step it up? I’m not convinced. Texas has been torched through the air this year on occasion, as recently as last week when Marcus Griffin and Tarrell Brown sat out vs. Baylor. BU passed around and over the defense, targeting Fr Deon Beasley. When all for top guys have been healthy the defense has faired well, see OU.

 

 

 

3) Can Texas continue their road success? Texas is just sick. Texas’ last road loss, neutral sites non-withstanding, was at Lubbock in 2002. At some point that will come to an end. A team lacking defined leadership, as Texas seems to, is susceptible to a road breakdown.

 

 

 

4) Can Texas out-physical NU ? I think Texas has the manpower up front, at least on paper, to win the battles up front. After last week’s mediocre performance, Texas ’ O-Line will be pissed off. But will it be enough against a NU team that will be determined to prove they are back on the national scene?

 

 

 

5) Can Texas run the ball? For fans accustomed to seeing the offense reel off huge chunks of yards on the ground, this season seems as if we can’t even move the chains. Much of the problem seems to the mismatch between the scheme and the talents of the offense, but I also think there is a gameplan issue. In the end, yes, Texas can run the ball against NU. But will they actually do it when it counts?

 

 

 

When Texas is on Offense:

 

 

 

Gameplan:

 

Texas enters the game as the nation’s #20 rushing offense, #57 passing offense, #5 passing efficiency offense, #27 total offense and #2 scoring offense. NU counters with the #21 rushing defense, #86 pass defense, # 26 passing efficiency defense, #51 total defense and #13 scoring defense. With the exception of the scoring number, that is eerily similar to what BU was doing before last week’s game. Weather not included, I think Texas will have no problem moving the chains, but as always, can Texas sustain long drives?

 

Texas will look to run the ball first, especially if the weather forecast holds. However, the passing game is coming around and Texas has proven it can move the ball through the air. McCoy does have issues with under-throwing the out routes. You do expect young QB’s to also make bad decisions, and Colt has not been immune to that. He’s been bailed out in the endzone by his tight end a couple times, and bailed out by the zebras a couple other times. I would fully expect Texas to come out running, and I would also expect to see a continuation of the downfield passing game that has been growing in the last couple weeks.

 

 

 

When Texas passes the ball:

 

The Texas passing game has really opened up in the last several weeks. Colt McCoy’s training wheels have come off and the coaches are letting him throw deep more often. Now, while I have been very vocal about my desire to see it happen, I also now see why it hasn’t happened. Colt has a tendency to under throw the deep ball and really put a lot of air on the mid-to-deep out rotes. That’s just begging for an INT. Colt has been fortunate that he has big tall leapers like Sweed and Finley to bail him out. But how much longer can that keep happening?

 

Everything for Texas starts with the big guys up front. Texas has had some injury problems though, and that means that RT Justin Blaylock has shifted inside, and RS-Fr Ulatoski is now starting at RT. While this gives Texas a formidable presence in the middle of the line, it means Texas has two newbie’s in Ulatoski and former TE, Jr Tony Hills, at the tackle spots. I would think Nebraska will really try to force the issue with the pass rush by attacking the edges. McCoy is not a home-run running threat. So you can afford to gamble with your secondary and linebackers on the blitz and hope you can get there. Nebraska does have a very capable pass rusher in Adam Carriker. Carriker has had a modest season numbers wise, but he still remains a presence that you must account for, usually with TE help for blocking. If McCoy has time, whihch I think he usually will, he has 5-7 very capable wideouts to throw the ball to when they are in the game. Sweed is obviously the headliner, but Pittman finally broke out last week. Cosby is another smaller speed guy, and he has been used primarily on the short routes. Might them let him loose deep this week? Shipley is starting to find his spot in the rotation and Jones is a reliable receiver as well. Add in a rising TE Finley and steady senior Tweedie and you have one of the most complete pass-catching corps in the nation.

 

Nebraska has had issues with defending the pass this year, they are giving up 218 yards per game, although their pass efficiency defense tells a better story. (26th nationally). Starting CB’s Jones and Grixby certainly have the talent, along with safeties Shanle and Green. However, if they are left in one-on-one matchups and the blitz can’t get home they will be in a world of hurt, esp if you get the 5-9 Grixby matched up with the 6-5 Sweed. So can the blitz get home? Possibly, but if you blitz too many times you will get beat several times, and while Nebraska has a very good front four, I don’t think they can get consistent pressure on the QB by themselves. Nebraska will need to blitz some or get good pressure from their veteran ends, all big 12 caliber players in Moore and Carriker. If they don’t McCoy will pick them apart. In all honesty, Dt’s Cryer and Dagundro are good players, but it will be a needle in a haystack situation if Sendlein, Studdard and Blaylock let them through. I think Texas , weather permitting, will throw for 200+ yards and a couple TD’s. Look for Finley to be a huge weapon.

 

 

 

When Texas Runs the ball:

 

Texas is in much better shape when they run the ball. However, what bothers me is the way Texas has chosen to run the ball this year. We’ve seen too many plays that get stretched out to the perimeter. The running lanes to the outside just are not there without Vince to keep the backside honest. Instead, Texas should be running much more up the gut of the defense. We have the interior line to open the holes and get to the 2nd level, but we choose not to. A lot of that is predicated upon our having a bruising fullback. If the field is wet, I don’t see us having the footing to keep trying to hit these stretch plays where you need to have the footing to make the cuts up field. Texas should be able to get plenty of running yards though. Nebraska is 21st in run defense, but they haven’t played anyone with the O-Line or RB depth that they’ll see Saturday. Nebraska’s opponents have been La Tech, Nicholls State, USC, Troy, Kansas, ISU and K-State. With the exception of USC, none of those teams can hold a candle to Texas ’ running game. USC fielded a rebuilt O-Line with brand new running backs. I personally think Nebraska ’s front 7 will be in for a shock when they get their real first taste of a high quality running game in a live-action setting. LB’s Ruud, McKeon and Bradley normally flow well to the runin g back, but I think they will have a hard time staying clean because I feel you’ll see a lot of the G-C-G combination getting to the second level and knocking them down.

 

 

 

Now, before my Nebraska readers go into a tizzy, Nebraska has the athletes to make the adjustment. They also face a pretty good offense in practice every day. There is a difference between an intra-squad scrimmage and live bullets though. I think the key for Nebraska is how long it takes them to adjust. I think Texas runs for 175 yards and a couple TD’s I am curious to see if this is finally the week that a Texas RB breaks out and has a huge game. If the weather is dicey, I would expect to see Selvin Young more than Jamaal Charles.

 

 

 

When Texas is on Defense:

 

 

 

 

 

Gameplan: Nebraska fields one of the most balanced offenses in America . NU has an almost even run/pass split (207ypg/240ypg) and is 8th in total offense and 9th in scoring offense. However, like their defense hasn’t seen but one decent offense, their offense hasn’t faced but one (maybe, USC) high caliber defense. Texas will have both Marcus Griffin and Tarrell Brown back this week. It will be interesting to see how Brown holds up with a bad toe (rumor to be broken, non-big toe). Can he take a cortisone shot and play through it? We’ll see.

 

Texas has been dominant in stopping the run and porous in stopping the pass. Texas is 2nd in rushing defense and 77th in pass defense. Yikes. Before any Texas fan tries to rationalize the stats by saying “Teams pass for so much because they’re always playing catch up”, let me remind you that teams played a lot of catch-up last year and our pass d numbers were much better.

 

Texas has not shown much blitzing yet this year, and like Nebraska, must face the issue of blitzing and exposing your corners or staying back and hoping the D-Line can get home. Look for Texas to stay in it’s base 4-3 most of the night and try to create pressure on Taylor with just it’s front 4. If they can do that Texas wins the game.

 

 

 

When Nebraska passes the ball:

 

Zac Taylor is 9th in the nation in passing efficiency and 40th in total offense. Outside of Troy Smith, this will be the best QB Texas faces this year. Nebraska has made some huge upgrades in talent at wideout, but they are still lacking a true big play receiver. Texas has made a lot of supposed “no-name” wideouts into stars this year though, so I would not be surprised to see Nate Swift or Terrance Nunn have a huge game Saturday.

 

Nebraska also trots out the 12th year senior Matt Herrian. When healthy Herrian is one of the elite TE’s in all the country. At 6-5 and 250 with 4.6 speed he is a matchup nightmare for the Texas LB’s, particularly Texas ’ 5-9 SLB Rashad Bobino. Phillips and Mueller are also capable back-ups.

 

Nebraska offensive line is a mix of experience and youth. Senior Greg Austin has 16 career starts at LG and Senior Kurt Mann has 24 at Center. That’s 40 combined starts. The other 3 starters combine for 23. Oh yeah, one small problem. Mann is out for the game, so that means Brett Byford gets the start. So make that 16 starts for Austin and a combined 28 for the other 4. Texas should have no problems getting pressure from the edges against two green and inexperienced Tackles. Derek Lokey has been a monster in the middle lately and Roy Miller and Thomas Marshall have also stepped up their play. Okam has been a ghost this year. All that to say this, if Nebraska can’t keep Taylor upright this could be a long day for the Men of Corn.

 

The running backs can also catch balls with good results, so watch for Lucky on screens and flares as they try to run some action to slow down the pass rush. If it seems like I’m discounting Nebraska here, think again. I think they will have lots of success, especially if they can start hitting quick passes on 3-step drops. Texas has been exposed on the crossing routes, and the tackling of the DB’s has been spotty. In addition, Deon Beasley is a true freshman that has played very well, but has also given up some big plays and is still learning the position. If injury or scheme require Beasley, Foster or Palmer to be out on the field, Nebraska would be wise to go right at them. I think Nebraska hits its average, throwing for 250 yards and a couple scores. I would also test the Griffin twins at safety and see just how healthy they are. Texas ’ LB’s while solid, have had issues covering the TE’s this year.

 

I would look for Texas to continue it’s run on sacking the QB. I think we’ll see 4-5 sacks and I would look for Orakpo to have a couple of those if NU gets into 3rd and long too often.

 

 

 

 

 

When NU runs the ball:

 

Nebraska went away from the run in the last few years. Or they forgot how to run the ball, depending whom you asked. Either way an infusion of talent at the I-Back spot as well as improved line play has allowed Nebraska to run for 200 yards a game. It has truly been a RB by committee position, as three players have each average more than 50 ypg this season, led by Marlon Luck’s 68ypg. All the NU backs can run with power and go right through you, or they can hit the outside and go right by you.

 

Nebraska’s O-Line, as mentioned earlier, is very young and figures to get their toughest test of the season Saturday. How well this line can fend of the Texas front 4 will decide the game. I think they will find the sledding tough against a Texas D, who despite some inflated run defense numbers, are still a very good and physical run stopping team.

 

I’m still waiting for the LB’s to have their breakout game in run support this year. Scott Derry has played really well all season and Bobino has had his moments, but Killebrew has been non-existent and Kelson is still fighting back from injury.

 

I think Nebraska does better running the ball than some expect and I think they break a couple 20+ yard runs, but I think in the end Texas holds them down to the tune of 145 yards and a TD.

 

 

 

 

 

Special Teams:

 

 

 

Texas has the clear edge in punting and kickoffs are a wash. Watch the performance of true freshman Hunter Lawrence, who will be kicking in just his 2nd college game. Nebraska has the clear edge if the game comes down to field goals. I personally think Mack is scared to even try field goals at this point. So if we line up and there’s not 3 seconds left in the game, I’m thinking it’s a fake. Nebraska is also horrid in kick returns. They are 50th in punt returns and 102nd in kick returns. Texas is 9th and 34th in those same categories.

 

 

 

Matchups:

 

 

 

Comparing Units:

 

 

 

QB’s:. Edge Nebraska . Zac Taylor is clearly a better QB, although McCoy has the talent around him to make up for the deficit.

 

 

 

RB’s: Edge Texas , but it’s very close. I think NU lacks the true game breaker.

 

 

 

WR’s Advantage Texas . Although Nebraska has very good depth (see Hardy and Purify).

 

 

 

TE’s:. Advantage NU

 

 

 

OL: Advantage Texas

 

 

 

DL:. Advantage Texas

 

 

 

LB: Push, both teams have had struggles this year.

 

 

 

DB: Edge Texas , although just barely.

 

 

 

ST: Edge Texas , based on everything but field goals.

 

 

 

Going Head to Head:

 

 

 

Texas O-Line vs. NU D-Line: Advantage Texas . Look for another dominating effort.

 

 

 

Texas QB’s/TE’s/WR’s vs. NU’s LB’s/DB’s. Advantage Texas . Look for Texas to go to Sweed early and often and then do over the top a few times.

 

 

 

Texas RB’s vs. NU LB’s Advantage Texas

 

 

 

NU O-line vs. Texas D-Line Advantage Texas .

 

 

 

NU QB/TE/WR vs. Texas LB/DB Push

 

 

 

NU RB’s vs. Texas LB’s: Push

 

 

 

Special Teams: Edge Texas

 

 

 

Coaching: Edge Texas

 

 

 

Intangibles: Nebraska . And this is the big one. NU is looking for a program re-defining win and they have a huge shot Saturday. The game is at home. National TV audience. Supposedly nasty weather. A humiliating 5-1 record vs. Texas since 1996 including two streak-busting losses at home. Texas doe shave the unreal road record, but I think that’s going to get neutralized in front of a raucous and frenzied NU home crowd.

 

 

 

Predictions

 

 

 

Nebraska wins this game. I don’t know why other than I think it is time for them to beat us. They don’t have the edge in talent or coaching. Still, based on those intangibles I think they win an UGLY game with a late Congdon field goal, 31-28.

 

 

 

 

 

Until next time. Check for the Aftermath on Saturday night.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3 Comments

 

 

 

HuskerFan

 

Kurt Mann is not out for this game. He played most of the snaps at Kansas State and is looking to get a good amount of playing time against the Longhorn defense. Good article, I think it's pretty fair and well written. Good to see a Texas person who is reasonable and NOT a prick. Good luck the rest of the season.

 

Wednesday, October 18, 2006 - 02:55 PM

 

 

 

Huskerfamilyof5

 

I know this is going to be a great game, and I do hope Nebraska can upset Texas , but it would be an upset. Texas has phenominal talent and they know how to use it. Great write up, and thanks for the props for my Huskers.

 

GBR

 

Wednesday, October 18, 2006 - 03:17 PM

 

 

 

Truth Hurts

 

This is one of the most unbiased write-ups I've ever read. While I appreciate your predicton in favor of my Cornhuskers, I think Texas will win by at least three touchdowns.

 

Here's why:

 

1. Our O-Line has been much better this year, but looked terrible against USC. We will not be able to run the ball effectivley and Zac Taylor will not get enough time to throw against the front seven of Texas .

 

2. Callahan has gone into a shell with playcalling in every game this year after halftime. His conservative "let's not get blown out" mentality was an embarrassment against USC. I don't expect much different against Texas .

 

3. Our DB's suck and our front seven won't get pressure. Expect a great day for Colt. It's unfortunate that Zack Bowman , Nebraska 's lock down corner, blew out his knee. I would have loved to watch the match-up between him and Sweed.

 

4. If UT goes to an air assault, which I suspect they will, our DC will not play enough nickel and our slow LB's couldn't cover my grandmother.

 

Prediction: UT 38 - NU 17

 

Wednesday, October 18, 2006 - 03:55 PM

 

 

 

Add a Comment

[hskrfan4life]

YEAH GBR

[HuskerfaninOkieland]

Not bad. A pretty good write up.

[Spartness]

Overall a very good preview of the game. The only two things I don't agree with, and I don't disagree with much that this UT fan wrote, is we have gamebreaking ability at the RB position and Purify is a true gamebreaker at the WR position. Oh and there is a third: He gave too many props to our TE, Matt Herien, who is not the same player he use to be. Otherwise he did a great job.

 

After reading this guys article, and reading C West's posts, it tells you there are a lot of classy UT fans out there. It's just unfortunate, like fans from other schools, you see a lot of flamers on these message boards that are out there just to get a rise out of you, except perhaps Huskerboard.com. Thanks Huskerboard.com.

[gamecocks]

That is a pretty fair assessment in my book.

[Marf]

To biased. Me no like....

 

Their Offensive line vs. our D line, and the advantage is Texas? I beg to differ sir... Linebackers have been having troubles? I don't agree. Maybe if Mckeon is out for the game, If hes there, he will be wreaking havoc as it takes 4 people to block Carriker which leaves the Linebackers wide open for blitzing.

[OKCHusker]

I disagree w/this comment

 

1) Will the weather be a factor? Forecast as of Tuesday night is for cool weather, rain and wind. So who does that favor? Neither team really. Actually, a windy, wet track would seem to neutralize Texas ’ speed advantage. Both teams are balanced on offense and both teams can play a slow it down run game or an air it out passing attack.

 

 

Nebraska has played in two games this year when it was raining. I think this favors NU because: 1) taylor/receivers are used to throwing/catching the balls while its wet. 2) Cold weather - its not going to be that cold, but with the rain and it being cold....i think its in NU's advantage. Its been 90+ in every game UT has played in this year.

 

I'm not sure if we win this game, but I think we have a great chance. It would b great to beat them after the bad luck we've had over past years!

 

See everyone in Lincoln!!!

 

GBR!!

[Licensed to Ill]

He said Texas' DB's are barely better than ours? I know they have given up some big numbers, but that's awfully generous!