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5 Year Slump?


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I've seen a lot of discussion that it is common for a coach to hit a slump in their 5th year because of the time it takes to reload or get the right coaches in place or whatever excuse is being thrown out. Well guess what...there's nothing to this theory whatsoever. More excuses and spin jobs. For every coach you can come up with who excelled after a fifth year slump, I can find one that excelled much earlier. Have a look at this...

 

In the last 12 years...

 

Bob Stoops - National Championship - Year 2

Larry Coker - National Championship - Year 1

Jim Tressel - National Championship - Year 2

Nick Saban - National Championship - Year 4

Pete Carroll - National Championship - Year 3 & 4

Urban Meyer - National Championship - Year 2 & 4

Les Miles - National Championship - Year 3

Nick Saban (again) - National Championship - Year 3 & 5

Gene Chizik - National Championship - Year 2

 

In fact, if you can deduct anything, it's that if your guy doesn't win a National Championship in his first 5 years in today's game, there is a VERY good chance he's never going to. The only coach who has won a NC in the last 12 years which wasn't in his first five years was Mack Brown at Texas. Took him 8.

 

How many did Saban win before Alabama? One at LSU in his 10th year as a head coach. How about Chizik at Iowa St? Les Miles at Okla. St? Urban Meyer at Utah? Larry Coker took over an 11-1 team from 2000 and where is he now? Even Bill Callahan took the Raiders to the Super Bowl because of Jon Grudens players.

 

The only guys you can compare Pelini to in that group are Carrol and Stoops because they were both first time head coaches. Also, USC and Oklahoma are both easier places to get talent to. God, I hope we go undefeated the rest of the season then we won't hear from you til our next loss. Btw, I thought you were no longer a Husker fan? Shouldn't you be posting on another teams message board?

 

For starters, where in my post did I say that any of these guys were first time coaches? This was simply a look at new coaches at new programs...experienced or inexperienced. I believe most of the "five year slump" arguments I've seen are referring to coaches (regardless of experience) at their new programs and how the first five years is commonly a slump phase as that's when the changes really take place. Has nothing to do with being a first time coach or not. So, please don't confuse the point of my post.

 

That being said, using your logic and given the statistical probability of recent history, you're looking for Nebraska to be at the same level as Michigan State, Utah, Okie State and Iowa State of the 90's and early 2000's? Really not trying to be a dick here, I just don't understand your argument. It reads to me that you are trying to argue that because those coaches were all able to do something pretty good in their first 5 years as a head coach with inferior programs prior to going to an elite program and winning a NC, they shouldn't be compared to what Bo is doing in his first five years at Nebraska? Or are you arguing that only two first time college head coaches have won a NC over the last 12 years...and both of them were able to get it done in their first 5 years. Neither argument changes the point of my post.

 

Just trying to have a civilized sports discussion here.

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Urban Meyer

Les Miles

Nick Saban

 

Those 3 coaches really pop out at me....ya know why? Because their W/L record wasn't highly impressive as first-time head coaches at a D1 level. Urban took Bowling Green to a 9-3, not too shabby, but your comparing apples to oranges when trying to measure their success with Bo's. You haven't factored in that the 3 successful coaches I've given above didn't win Natty Championships in their FIRST 1-3 years of being a head coach.

 

Comparing Les Miles and Nick's records with Bo's as being a first time head coach, Bo was more successful. Sorry....just stating facts.

 

 

See post above. I'm not arguing that you're wrong. I'm just saying that being a first time head coach has nothing to do with what I'm saying. Unless you're hoping Nebraska will be a stepping stone job for Bo? I don't think any of us believes that's the case. My basis was coaches who have won a Nation al Championships in their first 5 years of the programs they won them at. Bo doesn't have any parallels to any of them. Doesn't mean it still might not happen, just means statistically speaking it hasn't happened once in the last 12 years.

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I've seen a lot of discussion that it is common for a coach to hit a slump in their 5th year because of the time it takes to reload or get the right coaches in place or whatever excuse is being thrown out. Well guess what...there's nothing to this theory whatsoever. More excuses and spin jobs. For every coach you can come up with who excelled after a fifth year slump, I can find one that excelled much earlier. Have a look at this...

 

In the last 12 years...

 

Bob Stoops - National Championship - Year 2

Larry Coker - National Championship - Year 1

Jim Tressel - National Championship - Year 2

Nick Saban - National Championship - Year 4

Pete Carroll - National Championship - Year 3 & 4

Urban Meyer - National Championship - Year 2 & 4

Les Miles - National Championship - Year 3

Nick Saban (again) - National Championship - Year 3 & 5

Gene Chizik - National Championship - Year 2

 

In fact, if you can deduct anything, it's that if your guy doesn't win a National Championship in his first 5 years in today's game, there is a VERY good chance he's never going to. The only coach who has won a NC in the last 12 years which wasn't in his first five years was Mack Brown at Texas. Took him 8.

 

Not to mention, all these teams have the ability to turn out top 25 recruiting classes year after year, based on the school name alone.

 

Jesus, I have to stop reading this, because each time I do, I find more dumb ass things related to it...

 

All these teams are the National Champions over the last 12 years. No more, no less. So you're saying that Nebraska can't "turn out top 25 recruiting classes year after year, based on the school name alone" so we should just give up the hope of winning another NC ever again???

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wanted to say that I think we need to lose the obsession with winning a National Championship as a barometer. Should be more like consistently winning and playing at a high level, Regularly in the Conference championship game and BCS games.

 

Maybe you're right. But that doesn't sound very fun to me. I'd like to win some more NC's in my lifetime.

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Wow...who knew posting a few inarguable FACTS about some National Championship coaches and the time it took them to win their National Championships would hit such a nerve? Classy.

 

You have no idea what the word even means.

 

When will you honor your word and JUST GO AWAY? I'm sure Tex-ass could use another dik fan. Not only that but most of the time you don't know what you're talking about. Go take care of your boy friend or visit Jerry Sandusky or something that you were put on this planet to do. I have nothing but sympathy for your parents who I'm sure disowned ou by the time you were 2. Oh wait that's it you are the way you are because you grew up in foster care in Tex-a$$.

:troll:

T_O_B

:throwdabones1:

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From my short time here, I have realized that Lando is just a very upset person, and seems to completely hate everything about Nebraska, starting with Bo, to the coaching staff, to Martinez and ending with the whole defense in general. A "fan" that will never be happy.

 

To clarify your post....

  • Stoops- Yes year two, he won National Title
  • Larry Coker - Yes, he won a National Title his first year, but if I remember right, didn't they only lose one game the year before? Meaning he played off the success and players recruited from the coach before. Not taking any credit away from him, as he did win one, but the school wasn't having the worst 4 years of school history before he became HC.
  • Jim Tressel - OSU wasn't his first head coaching job, so therefore, your statement is completely invalid. Let alone, Cooper was let go when OSU was still not having a losing record, and is strong on recruiting.
  • Nick Saban -It took 14 years for Saban to win a championship and finally struck gold when he went to Alabama. Another coach who had time to LEARN the HC position. It took him 3 previous Head Coaching jobs to be exact.
  • Pete Carroll - Wasn't Pete Carroll's first HC gig with the NFL? Again, another coach who had previous experience before he went to USC. 6&6 even as his first season.
  • Urban Meyer - Urban Meyer took 4 years to become a National Title to win.
  • Les Miles - Les Miles has yet to have an undefeated season, and honestly, the reason they see a National Title with a loss or two, is because they are in the SEC. Two loss season, you would never see Nebraska there. I also believe LSU was handed over in great shape to him, and the only reason there was a coaching change, was because LSU got beat my Iowa in the Capital One bowl.
  • Gene Chizik - Look at his first 3 years as HC! 13-24 win to loss!!! Then he goes to an SEC school where recruiting is strong! Sure takes a good coach to win a National Title, but your blind to the other numbers that Bo isn't even close to! That guy lost more games in 3 years, than Bo has in 4 1/2!

 

Again, half your points above are based on me saying anything about these stats having anything to do with first time coaches. You also seem to be under the assumption that I would want all of those guys over Bo? I won't even mention the inaccuracies or sour grapes points you've tried to make.

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I've seen a lot of discussion that it is common for a coach to hit a slump in their 5th year because of the time it takes to reload or get the right coaches in place or whatever excuse is being thrown out. Well guess what...there's nothing to this theory whatsoever. More excuses and spin jobs. For every coach you can come up with who excelled after a fifth year slump, I can find one that excelled much earlier. Have a look at this...

 

In the last 12 years...

 

Bob Stoops - National Championship - Year 2

Larry Coker - National Championship - Year 1

Jim Tressel - National Championship - Year 2

Nick Saban - National Championship - Year 4

Pete Carroll - National Championship - Year 3 & 4

Urban Meyer - National Championship - Year 2 & 4

Les Miles - National Championship - Year 3

Nick Saban (again) - National Championship - Year 3 & 5

Gene Chizik - National Championship - Year 2

 

In fact, if you can deduct anything, it's that if your guy doesn't win a National Championship in his first 5 years in today's game, there is a VERY good chance he's never going to. The only coach who has won a NC in the last 12 years which wasn't in his first five years was Mack Brown at Texas. Took him 8.

 

Nebraska's 2 NC coaches took longer than 5 years too win their titles. This debunks you're theory. Todays college game wants quick fixers. they win early and then taper off, cuz they don't know how too build a program, but know how too come in and fix a good teams problems.

 

You will notice all those guys who won in their first 2 years, walked into talented, but unmotivated teams with obsolete schemes. Those are easy fixes for a new coach.

 

Guys that want too build a program often get fired because it takes 4 -5 years too successfully implement. So thus Guys like Turner Gill get fired.

 

I want Bo, because he aint a quick fixer, he is a long term guy.

 

Good points and I can definitely understand this point of view. I just question how realistic it is in today's game. As you mentioned, "todays college game wants quick fixers" and that's pretty clear from looking at the last 12 years of National Championships.

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I've seen a lot of discussion that it is common for a coach to hit a slump in their 5th year because of the time it takes to reload or get the right coaches in place or whatever excuse is being thrown out. Well guess what...there's nothing to this theory whatsoever. More excuses and spin jobs. For every coach you can come up with who excelled after a fifth year slump, I can find one that excelled much earlier. Have a look at this...

 

In the last 12 years...

 

Bob Stoops - National Championship - Year 2

Larry Coker - National Championship - Year 1

Jim Tressel - National Championship - Year 2

Nick Saban - National Championship - Year 4

Pete Carroll - National Championship - Year 3 & 4

Urban Meyer - National Championship - Year 2 & 4

Les Miles - National Championship - Year 3

Nick Saban (again) - National Championship - Year 3 & 5

Gene Chizik - National Championship - Year 2

 

In fact, if you can deduct anything, it's that if your guy doesn't win a National Championship in his first 5 years in today's game, there is a VERY good chance he's never going to. The only coach who has won a NC in the last 12 years which wasn't in his first five years was Mack Brown at Texas. Took him 8.

 

And look where Gene Chizik is now. You're a tool dude. Auburn bought a National Championship for $200,000.

 

Again, don't confuse my post with wanting Gene Chizik to replace Bo.

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I've seen a lot of discussion that it is common for a coach to hit a slump in their 5th year because of the time it takes to reload or get the right coaches in place or whatever excuse is being thrown out. Well guess what...there's nothing to this theory whatsoever. More excuses and spin jobs. For every coach you can come up with who excelled after a fifth year slump, I can find one that excelled much earlier. Have a look at this...

 

In the last 12 years...

 

Bob Stoops - National Championship - Year 2

Larry Coker - National Championship - Year 1

Jim Tressel - National Championship - Year 2

Nick Saban - National Championship - Year 4

Pete Carroll - National Championship - Year 3 & 4

Urban Meyer - National Championship - Year 2 & 4

Les Miles - National Championship - Year 3

Nick Saban (again) - National Championship - Year 3 & 5

Gene Chizik - National Championship - Year 2

 

In fact, if you can deduct anything, it's that if your guy doesn't win a National Championship in his first 5 years in today's game, there is a VERY good chance he's never going to. The only coach who has won a NC in the last 12 years which wasn't in his first five years was Mack Brown at Texas. Took him 8.

 

Nebraska's 2 NC coaches took longer than 5 years too win their titles. This debunks you're theory. Todays college game wants quick fixers. they win early and then taper off, cuz they don't know how too build a program, but know how too come in and fix a good teams problems.

 

You will notice all those guys who won in their first 2 years, walked into talented, but unmotivated teams with obsolete schemes. Those are easy fixes for a new coach.

 

Guys that want too build a program often get fired because it takes 4 -5 years too successfully implement. So thus Guys like Turner Gill get fired.

 

I want Bo, because he aint a quick fixer, he is a long term guy.

 

Good points and I can definitely understand this point of view. I just question how realistic it is in today's game. As you mentioned, "todays college game wants quick fixers" and that's pretty clear from looking at the last 12 years of National Championships.

:troll:

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OP, from reading the responses, perhaps you should have clarified the number of years as being the number of years the coach was at a particular program before achieving a championship.

 

Clearly you're correct. I didn't realize some of these guys needed it written in crayon for them.

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Pete Carroll saying f#*k you to official. Plus getting sanctions and bolting. Total class act!

 

Urban Meyer degrading media member

 

To your Urban video..

 

 

Urban apologizes to the guy in my above video..

 

hmm, I can't seem to embed this video..

 

and to your point.. Who cares how others act? I expect the NU coach to act and behave a certain way.

 

Not to mention that he's found a couple isolated incidences and is trying to compare that to the common personality trait of one person.

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OP, from reading the responses, perhaps you should have clarified the number of years as being the number of years the coach was at a particular program before achieving a championship.

 

Clearly you're correct. I didn't realize some of these guys needed it written in crayon for them.

Don't you need to get to work at Motel 6 and start changing sheets?

:troll:

T_O_B

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