tschu Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Huge game in the B1G this weekend, even though the result will ultimately be meaningless in determining the division/conference championship. But perhaps the biggest talking point surrounding this game is the fact that Wisconsin is a 3-point favorite. That's right, I bet I surprised a few of you with that one if you hadn't heard it yet. Here's why: -Wisconsin doesn't have a single *bad* loss. Not even close. Their worst loss by far is vs. Michigan State - a team who is much better than their record indicates. They also have losses to Nebraska, by 3, on the road...and to Oregon State, by 3, on the road. They also have a big win vs. Utah State. Wait a minute, tschu, what did you just say? A big win against Utah State? Absolutely. They have Top-10 AYPP stats and are 21st in Sagarin's predictor. By comparison, Nebraska is ranked 23rd. This is also a team that was hampered by some injuries up-front early in the year; these are guys that are returning now and should be huge factors in the running game. Don't forget, this team still has Montee Ball. Now what about Ohio State? They're undefeated and ranked #5 in the nation! How could they not be favored over an unranked team??????? Well, because Ohio State isn't that good. They really aren't. Their best win, by far, is vs. Nebraska - a game where they should have won by, at most, a touchdown. They beat Indiana by 3, a team that Wisconsin just beat by 40. It took overtime and a lot of luck for them to beat Purdue, they played a tight game with Penn State, and looked thoroughly unimpressive against Illinois, although Illinois was clearly way outmatched. Finally - although a standard 3 points usually gets applied by folks to spreads as a home-field advantage, it's well-documented that all home-field advantages are not the same. Camp Randall is more in the 5-6 point HFA range. Look at what Sagarin predicts for the game's outcome (0.5-pt tOSU victory) and apply a 5-pt HFA and you get Wisconsin by 4.5. Look at the AYPP rankings as well: 18. Wisconsin, 20. Ohio State. Adjusted YPP also predicts exactly the same thing: a 4.5-pt Wisconsin victory. Football Outsiders FEI has Wisconsin at 16 in the nation in efficiency, while Ohio State is 12. Not exactly a blowout. In general, the stats + home field at Camp Randall suggest a Wisconsin victory. Once you start to look at the matchup beyond the casual-fan "zomg, but tOSU is undefeated #5 in the nation *cough, cough, Damon Benning* and take a closer look at both teams, the line makes total sense. It is almost exactly the same as West Virginia @ Texas Tech earlier this year, a game where people couldn't believe that WVU was only 3-point favorites on the road. Well, I parlayed the under with a TTU victory and won a lot of money. Something to think about if you want to bet this matchup is that there's bound to be a higher-than-average amount of money on Ohio State, pushing the line from maybe a true -4 down to -3. Which is fine by me. Take the odds and Wisconsin. At the end of the day, let's just hope that Wisconsin wins so that if we should beat Wisconsin for the conference title, we'll look a little bit better. Quote Link to comment
Blackshirts007 Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 I picked Wisconsin at home. Wisconsin has some of the best linebackers in the conferece who should do decent job of containing Braxton Quote Link to comment
tschu Posted November 17, 2012 Author Share Posted November 17, 2012 Borland is out, FWIW. But Borland is not the type of guy who would excel against an Urban-Braxton spread Quote Link to comment
Excel Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 We'll win by at least four scores. Quote Link to comment
Coqui Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 The irony of saying if you look beyond being a casual fan and then using the transitive property as your rationale for what's going to happen while using games against a severely injured defense as your marker Let's look at it a different way than a casual fan should shall we? Wisconsin is a run heavy team as is evident by their rankings (#17 in the country in rushing, #108 in the country in passing) Wisconsin averages 218.8 ypg on the ground. Let's look at how Ohio State has defended against the run: Miami (OH) averages 86.2 ypg. Ohio State held them to -1 UCF averages 189.2 ypg. Ohio State held them to 103 California averages 182.36 ypg. Ohio State let them run 224 (can you tell when our defensive players started getting injured?) UAB averages 120.83 ypg. Ohio State let them run 144 Michigan St. averages 141.9 ypg. Ohio State held them to 34 (We had a couple of defensive players come back) Nebraska averages 269.3 ypg. Ohio State held them to 223. (Although Burkhead was injured in the 3rd so it's hard to gauge what would have happened against the average - as well as we lost some on defense) Indiana averages 138.2 ypg. Ohio State held them to 129. (This was the first game Boren started) Purdue averages 158.8 ypg. Ohio State held them to 117. Penn St. averages 141.3 ypg. Ohio State held them to 32. Illinois averages 123.5 ypg. Ohio State held them to 74. Ohio State's defense is missing Devin Bogard at DB but everyone else should be playing. So against the run? Ohio State is full strength. Going on averages, Ohio State should hold Wisconsin below their rushing average. Wisconsin is on their 3rd starting QB this season. He will be the X-factor in determining what Wiscy will do against this defense. He's more mobile than the other QBs and has the ability to pass but his only real viable target is Abbrederis. We have arguably the best CB in the NCAA in Roby who should be lining up against him Ohio State's offense is almost clicking on all cylinders. Wisconsin couldn't beat the worst team in Ohio State history in the past 70 years last year. While I'm not ready to predict a blow out, I'm picking Ohio State to win this game easily. Quote Link to comment
SandhillshuskerW Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 We'll win by at least four scores. I think Ohio State is going to win too, but I don't think it's going to be by that much. I see them winning by 7 or 10. But, no offense Bucky, I hope I'm wrong. I can't stand Urban so I hope Wisconsin wins this one. Quote Link to comment
RedRedJarvisRedwine Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 We'll win by at least four scores. I think Ohio State is going to win too, but I don't think it's going to be by that much. I see them winning by 7 or 10. But, no offense Bucky, I hope I'm wrong. I can't stand Urban so I hope Wisconsin wins this one. 24 - 23 Ohio State. Hail Mary to win it! Quote Link to comment
Coqui Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 We'll win by at least four scores. I think Ohio State is going to win too, but I don't think it's going to be by that much. I see them winning by 7 or 10. But, no offense Bucky, I hope I'm wrong. I can't stand Urban so I hope Wisconsin wins this one. 24 - 23 Ohio State. Hail Mary to win it! What do you think we are? Michigan State? We don't need Hail Marys to win games. Quote Link to comment
tschu Posted November 17, 2012 Author Share Posted November 17, 2012 I'm not using transitive property. I was using comparative examples. lol @ saying lol @ casual fan while then proceeding to provide YPG stats only. I'm just going to assume that you took offense to my final conclusion which was that Wisconsin will win Quote Link to comment
Coqui Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 I'm not using transitive property. I was using comparative examples. lol @ saying lol @ casual fan while then proceeding to provide YPG stats only. I'm just going to assume that you took offense to my final conclusion which was that Wisconsin will win Transitive property. They barely beat Indiana which we destroyed. That is the exact definition of transitive property. I provided OSUs defense against the rush which is what Wisconsin's offense is based on. I also mention when OSU's defense was fully healthy (as it is now), they've destroyed any semblance of a rushing attack (which is what Wisconsin's offense is based on) I don't care that you think Wisconsin will win. You have every right to think so. My issue was you basing it off of Indiana and Purdue Quote Link to comment
NUance Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 It might just come down to coaching. In which case tOSU has the advantage. Here, let me tell the story with pictures: Bret Bielema Urban Meyer Quote Link to comment
tschu Posted November 17, 2012 Author Share Posted November 17, 2012 That transitive property was merely one part of a very long post which contained a lot more *actual* information. But fair enough. I think this game is going to be amazing, I only wish that I could watch it. But I can't watch it because I scored free tickets to our game, so I'm not too disappointed! Quote Link to comment
Coqui Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 That transitive property was merely one part of a very long post which contained a lot more *actual* information. But fair enough. I think this game is going to be amazing, I only wish that I could watch it. But I can't watch it because I scored free tickets to our game, so I'm not too disappointed! Well you mentioned the Sagarin rankings. Nebraska is actually 19, Ohio State is 20, Utah St. is 24, Wisconsin is 26. If we go by the BCS formulation of the Sagarin rankings, Ohio State is 11, Nebraska is 19, Utah St is 40, Wisconsin is 32. http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt12.htm So really all you have to go on is home field advantage and return of healthy players. Since we ruled out quality wins/losses and transitive property. Quote Link to comment
tschu Posted November 17, 2012 Author Share Posted November 17, 2012 The BCS formulation of Sagarin is terrible, it's essentially ELO Chess and doesn't take margin of victory into account (among other things). You want to look at the predictor ratings when looking at future games. (it doesn't take margin of victory into account because the BCS mandated it. His predictor is incredibly awesome when comparing a matchup of two teams, especially late in the season when it becomes ungrounded to preseason ratings, which it is in the first ~5 weeks from what I understand) Quote Link to comment
Muck Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 .../snip/... Their best win, by far, is vs. Nebraska - a game where they should have won by, at most, a touchdown. .../snip/... I think Ohio State is going to win too, but I don't think it's going to be by that much. I see them winning by 7 or 10. But, no offense Bucky, I hope I'm wrong. I can't stand Urban so I hope Wisconsin wins this one. I may be mistaken by I'm guessing that a poster named 'Bucky' with a badger for an avatar did not mean Ohio State when he said 'we'. Quote Link to comment
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