RojoBreakdown: Armstrong needs accuracy bump

[zoogs]

https://nebraska.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1773909

 

Good stuff from Dan Hoppen.

 

It looks to me like the weakest area is 11-20 yards. 20+ is OK; these are often low percentage throws anyway.

 

From 11-20, Tommy went 48-103 (46.6%) with 8 INTs. A lot of bad decisions? Perhaps.

 

I'm a little surprised that 0-10 accuracy was 64.6% (117-181). But, I suppose that's not atypical for short yardage, and may even in fact be a little on the low side.

 

Overall, Tommy was 184/345 (53.3%). If the short yardage gets to 68% and the medium yardage gets to 55%, he becomes a 57% passer overall. Maybe the improvements need to be even more dramatic than that?

 

Another thing we can look at is the ratio. 52.5% short, 29.8% medium, 17.7% long. He averaged only 26.5 attempts a game. How will this ratio look this year, particularly if he passes a lot more?

 

One stat I wish we had here was the resulting yardage; then we could compare YPA. I think I'd like to see three things:

 

- More pass attempts per game overall

- A greater percentage in the 0-10 range

- A more even split between 11-20 and 20+

 

Perhaps something like 64-20-16. With 32 attempts per games that would mean 266 short passes, 83 medium, and 67 long. On average, that'd be ~12 shots downfield during a game. Might look a bit more like the bowl game, too:

 

 

 

Some of Armstrong's propensity to throw deep may have been related to the playcalling. Over the first 13 games, Armstrong averaged 11.3 throws per game that traveled 10 or fewer yards. But with offensive coordinator Tim Beck calling what he wanted in the bowl game, Armstrong threw 34 short passes, completing 26 (76.5 percent)

 

One last thing to keep in mind: Langsdorf has said he wants Tommy to get up to 60%. Last year with Eli, they targeted 70%. So, I think he may tend to aim higher than he can expect to get.

[NUance]

"RojoBreakdown", that's in reference to the former (current?) poster at Huskermax, right?

[zoogs]

Maybe! Is that Dan Hoppen; did he get hired by HuskersOnline? I never really read HuskerMax.

[NUance]

Maybe! Is that Dan Hoppen; did he get hired by HuskersOnline? I never really read HuskerMax.

 

That's what I was wondering--whether Dan Hoppen was the poster, El Rojo. (I think his name was El Rojo.) He was well known about five years ago for posting indepth analyses relating to Husker football. Or maybe the title of the article is just a nod to that guy. (Or maybe not?)

 

Anyway, sorry for the derail. Great article!

[sho]

"RojoBreakdown", that's in reference to the former (current?) poster at Huskermax, right?

I'm guessing it's a tribute to the poster named Rojo. I've heard he passed away a few years ago. He was on HuskerPedia before the whole civil war of the site happened. He was a big fan of SP and BC and had some really thick, red lensed glasses.

[Savage Husker]

I can see his numbers improving based off of more discipline/expectations that Langsdorf will put on Tommy. Also, if the offense can become more efficient, less dud games and 3 and outs, those stats/attempts will improve organically.

[NUinID]

 

"RojoBreakdown", that's in reference to the former (current?) poster at Huskermax, right?

I'm guessing it's a tribute to the poster named Rojo. I've heard he passed away a few years ago. He was on HuskerPedia before the whole civil war of the site happened. He was a big fan of SP and BC and had some really thick, red lensed glasses.

 

Rojo was a poster on Huskerpedia, back in the day. He put up some very in depth analysis on things. I wouldn't say he was a big SP or BC supporter he was a big Husker supporter so he was going to support who ever was in charge.

[NUinID]

I can see his numbers improving based off of more discipline/expectations that Langsdorf will put on Tommy. Also, if the offense can become more efficient, less dud games and 3 and outs, those stats/attempts will improve organically.

 

To improve his numbers to the magical 60% we are only talking about 2 more completions a game if he throws at the same rate as last year. That is it.

[Savage Husker]

 

 

I can see his numbers improving based off of more discipline/expectations that Langsdorf will put on Tommy. Also, if the offense can become more efficient, less dud games and 3 and outs, those stats/attempts will improve organically.

To improve his numbers to the magical 60% we are only talking about 2 more completions a game if he throws at the same rate as last year. That is it.

Those two completions extend a drive and increase his attempts/%'s or score a TD.

 

It just means making better decisions on reads/coverages, being in tune with his WR corp, and doing the small things like hitting a check down. One other aspect of his passing game I see which is inconsistent is his touch. Those floaters over the top that allow his target, who has his man beat, to run under and catch.

[NUance]

 

I can see his numbers improving based off of more discipline/expectations that Langsdorf will put on Tommy. Also, if the offense can become more efficient, less dud games and 3 and outs, those stats/attempts will improve organically.

 

To improve his numbers to the magical 60% we are only talking about 2 more completions a game if he throws at the same rate as last year. That is it.

 

 

Or two fewer drops. We had a lot of dropped balls last year. Not saying that dropped balls is our biggest problem with the low completion rate. But it contributes some.