College Football Matrix: Anti-Coach Effect

[cm husker]

Slow developing plays with linemen pulling was a bad idea because we were having success running it straight at them?

 

Or you wanted us to get "more creative"? Which is it?

 

We averaged 2 yards a carry. You've got six GIF images staring you in the face showing you our offensive line was out-matched, but you want to run the ball more and maybe even throw in a few more wrinkles?

 

Holy Moly, man women and child you would put us in the gutter! Thankfully Huskerboard does not call the plays or we'd really be in trouble.

 

Yet our RB had something like 10 carries for 40 yards in the first half. Not spectacular, but he had no negative plays and that's how you wear a team down.

Then disappeared in favor of passing it 49 times in a close game.

[NowledgeableFan]

Bo was a good coach, which players cared about. Riley is a great guy and marginal coach.

If you have to bad mouth a prior coach to justify a current coach - the problem is with the

current coach.

 

I don't get the Bo hatred - I wonder sometimes if people on this board ever played football.

There are more passionate coaches which are a lot like Bo. Jim Tressel hired Bo for a reason.

[cm husker]

As bad as that "dancing bear" play looked, the real reason that kid made the play is that the RB took his angle way too wide. If he keeps his path, then he's still running with an OL out in front.

That said, the OLman should have blocked that guy rather than looking to make a bigger play downfield. That certainly isn't an example of an OL getting overpowered, though.

 

[cm husker]

Bo was a good coach, which players cared about. Riley is a great guy and marginal coach.

If you have to bad mouth a prior coach to justify a current coach - the problem is with the

current coach.

 

I don't get the Bo hatred - I wonder sometimes if people on this board ever played football.

There are more passionate coaches which are a lot like Bo. Jim Tressel hired Bo for a reason.

 

 

What's particularly interesting to me as that so many of these people knew ALL the factors before the season that they are pointing to now as excuses for why Riley has fall flat.

 

Yet those same people were predicting no fewer than 8 wins, even with those factors in place.

[Mavric]

Slow developing plays with linemen pulling was a bad idea because we were having success running it straight at them?

 

Or you wanted us to get "more creative"? Which is it?

 

If this had any semblance of coherency I'd try to respond.

[MichiganDad3]

Can't we just agree that Bo needed to go and that Riley sucks this year?

 

It is okay to say that. Maybe next year he goes 12-0...but this year he sucks. And yes, it is on the head coach...that is just how it works.

I agree with your statement, but I would like to add that MR has sucked most of his career, with a few mediocre seasons sprinkled in.

[True2tRA]

 

Slow developing plays with linemen pulling was a bad idea because we were having success running it straight at them?

 

Or you wanted us to get "more creative"? Which is it?

 

If this had any semblance of coherency I'd try to respond.

 

So don't.......?

 

I can't figure why you even typed that part? Seems like you like to instigate.

[Amac3309]

 

 

Last I checked, Bo Pelini took over a 7-5 Youngstown State team, brought in a couple of his own big time Power 5 players, and has elevated the Penguins to a 3-4 record while complaining that the stands at their 14,000 seat stadium are only half full.

 

Until he loses 5 games, he's a better coach than Mike Riley.

 

That's not my opinion, people. That's just straight up math.

Last year, Youngstown lost their last three games to finish 7-5. They were on a downward spiral.

 

And unlike Riley, Bo still has a chance to improve on the previous season's record.

So you wouldn't call Nebraska loosing 3 of their last 4 last year (the only win in OT) a downward spiral?

[Amac3309]

Bo was a good coach, which players cared about. Riley is a great guy and marginal coach.

If you have to bad mouth a prior coach to justify a current coach - the problem is with the

current coach.

 

I don't get the Bo hatred - I wonder sometimes if people on this board ever played football.

There are more passionate coaches which are a lot like Bo. Jim Tressel hired Bo for a reason.

Bo was a good guy to people he thought were on his side, and and jerk if you questioned him, he was a a great D coordinator and a terrible CEO.

 

Bottom line he was a avg recruiter and below avg a developing talent and depth. Hence the situation we are in.

[FeelLikeAStranger]

New to the thread and board, wanted to add some points to the earlier discussion about the matrix.

 

On my iPad, I have a hard time with that site, so I can't really link anything and I have a tough time finding certain pages, but it may be behind a paywall on that site anyway.

 

As I recall, from either reading it or listening to him on 1620, Bartoo uses an attrition-adjusted recruiting ranking average for the talent portion of the matrix. This is done in March. His goal was to make prediction as simple as possible, and that's 'show he gets there. Not perfect, but over time it has shown to be pretty damn accurate. Talent is #1, then if that's close, location home/away, and #3 is coach effect. Win a game you shouldnt against a more talented team and it's a plus one, lose one against a schlub and you get a -1. Favored and win or 'dog and lose is neutral. Obviously, if you are rarely favored, it's tough not to have a positive CE if you win a few games, conversely if you are favored most of the time, it's easier to end up with a negative.

 

Bo was a +1 after his first few years, ended up -0.5 ish. Riley, IIRC, used to be in the +2, +3 range, which was really really good even though he was rarely favored to win based on talent at OSU, but slipped to just +1 at the end of his time there. Now that he is favored nearly every game, he's the worst in the country at - 4 this season.

 

The matrix predicted NU at either 10-2 or 11-1 this season, sorry can't find the page to link, and that's using a -1 CE for a new Hc. The only game we've lost that we should have this season is Miami. Pretty sure the matrix has us beating MSU, and Bartoo didn't back off of that last week (because he doesn't change anything in-season). We have had more talent than every team except Miami, adjusted for attrition. He has said in the past that NU has a pretty low attrition rate compared to most, which usually has our talent slightly better than the avg recruiting rankings. Northwestern actually is a team that routinely has much better talent than recruiting ranks because of super low attrition in the matrix.

 

One thing the matrix cannot do ...It does not adjust for injuries, because it's done in March. No doubt those have had an impact, just as they did the last several years going back to that Steinkuhler knee that led directly to the CCG debacle, ameer's dings, etc.

 

Riley is failing HUGE this year based on the matrix. That much is clear. Bartoo's formula is simple and it's pretty darn accurate over time. NU has had the talent to win every game, and was favored in all but one. This is just an epic disaster.

[GBRedneck]

 

Bo was a good coach, which players cared about. Riley is a great guy and marginal coach.

If you have to bad mouth a prior coach to justify a current coach - the problem is with the

current coach.

 

I don't get the Bo hatred - I wonder sometimes if people on this board ever played football.

There are more passionate coaches which are a lot like Bo. Jim Tressel hired Bo for a reason.

Bo was a good guy to people he thought were on his side, and and jerk if you questioned him, he was a a great D coordinator and a terrible CEO.

 

Bottom line he was a avg recruiter and below avg a developing talent and depth. Hence the situation we are in.

 

They lost 3 then recovered in the last game. Once Riley was hired, a downward spiral was inevitable.

[Amac3309]

 

 

 

Bo was a good coach, which players cared about. Riley is a great guy and marginal coach.

If you have to bad mouth a prior coach to justify a current coach - the problem is with the

current coach.

 

I don't get the Bo hatred - I wonder sometimes if people on this board ever played football.

There are more passionate coaches which are a lot like Bo. Jim Tressel hired Bo for a reason.

Bo was a good guy to people he thought were on his side, and and jerk if you questioned him, he was a a great D coordinator and a terrible CEO.

 

Bottom line he was a avg recruiter and below avg a developing talent and depth. Hence the situation we are in.

They lost 3 then recovered in the last game. Once Riley was hired, a downward spiral was inevitable.

But not the same logic for Bo at YSU got it, fits your narrative

[Count 'Bility]

 

Im not putting any of what happened to our Oline on saturday on the coaches or scheme, etc. That's all attitude. Or lack there of. I played line. And no one will ever convince me that what happened saturday was scheme or coaching. To repeatedly let a guy go up and down the line and take turns making our front 5 his bitch? Cmon. 3 guys running right by him on a pull play? Hell, one play our pulling guard looked like he quivered to avoid contact with him. This is a vine put on twitter by Welch. I'm not finding it. You can if you wanna see it. it's actually pretty funny. but it's all attitude. to not let sh#t like that happen. Attitude and focus. Damnit, at some point

 

Coaches

 

Coach

 

and

 

players

 

play.

Sterup got put on his ass 3-4 times by the DE. Cav said our guys weren't playing with leverage and were getting manhandled and that it should never have happened.

no sh#t. Leverage my ass. Its all attitude with these guys right now. Quit havin the god damned Pelini pity party and start gettin after it. These guys repeatedly got their ass whooped by a NW d end. Is there technique involved? Sure. But just the eye test tells me that aint half the problem. Cav saying what he said is just covering for the players. These coaches i bet would really like to just come out and say how much of a headcase this team is.

[GBRedneck]

Holy crap, that's the best joke I've heard all day.

 

There are actually people that are so uneducated and clueless that they actually believe Bo Pelini is a better coach than Mike Riley. That one has me rolling pretty good. Thanks for that.

 

I wonder what it would be like to be so simple minded that you'd believe that just because one coach won 9 games and one coach has 3 wins, that that automatically means the 9 win coach is the better football coach. Oh, the bliss that comes with absolute ignorance. I wish I could step back in time to a place where I was once immature and didn' t have to use my brain.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2015/11/01/misery-index-week-9-georgia-nebraska-duke-texas-rutgers/75002324/

 

But when Eichorst hired Mike Riley, it sent a different message. It signaled that Eichorst didn’t view Bo’s coaching as the problem but rather his personality. It is impossible to argue otherwise because there is nothing in Riley’s history at Oregon State to indicate that he was a better college football coach than Pelini. The only place Nebraska clearly upgraded with Riley was in being easy to work with and genial in his handling of the more public, less desirable parts of the job.

 

[cm husker]

 

 

Im not putting any of what happened to our Oline on saturday on the coaches or scheme, etc. That's all attitude. Or lack there of. I played line. And no one will ever convince me that what happened saturday was scheme or coaching. To repeatedly let a guy go up and down the line and take turns making our front 5 his bitch? Cmon. 3 guys running right by him on a pull play? Hell, one play our pulling guard looked like he quivered to avoid contact with him. This is a vine put on twitter by Welch. I'm not finding it. You can if you wanna see it. it's actually pretty funny. but it's all attitude. to not let sh#t like that happen. Attitude and focus. Damnit, at some point

 

Coaches

 

Coach

 

and

 

players

 

play.

Sterup got put on his ass 3-4 times by the DE. Cav said our guys weren't playing with leverage and were getting manhandled and that it should never have happened.

no sh#t. Leverage my ass. Its all attitude with these guys right now. Quit havin the god damned Pelini pity party and start gettin after it. These guys repeatedly got their ass whooped by a NW d end. Is there technique involved? Sure. But just the eye test tells me that aint half the problem. Cav saying what he said is just covering for the players. These coaches i bet would really like to just come out and say how much of a headcase this team is.

This team doesn't have a mid 90s Cowboys offensive line, true.

 

But this is D1 football. Despite the perceptions, no team (or few teams) can go out and just run garbage calls that consistently put your oline at a disadvantage and still hope to rack up rushing yards. The talent disparity just isn't great enough.

 

This team is only a "head case" now because of the awful play calling, preparation and clock management that this staff brings to the table.

 

This NU team should have been able to simply grind out at least 6 wins this season if Langs and/or Riley would check their egos or use their brains. When you're a player and know that your losing to inferior teams, it is demoralizing. It does shake confidence in your coaches and the assignments they put on you. You'd have to be an extremely rare breed of person to not have that effect you. And the posters here bashing player effort are the sort who have never really been tested. Or, I'd wager, don't give full effort in their own lives.

 

.500 coach getting .500 results doesn't require a bunch of mental gymnastics justifying those results by blaming the players or the former coach.