McKewon: Mike Riley's 3-5 team according to analytics? A little like other recent Husker teams

[zoogs]

 

 

Strip away the emotions and the small sample size of a won or lost game and you'd see: Play to play, most Nebraska teams, in recent years, just weren't that much better than the rest of the conference. That may tick you off or rob you of some of the attendant frustration that you want to feel at a 3-5 start, but, stripped of aphorisms (to which none of us are immune, including me) Nebraska's statistical profile is, as they say, what it is.

 

What do two analytics sites say? Pretty much the same thing

A deep dive into some numbers.

[suh_fan93]

This staff was never considered an upgrade. Not sure you need metrics to see how this one was/is going to play out.

[alwayshusking]

This isn't a terrible football team despite the poor record. I think we should be 5-3 rather than 3-5 and we'd probably feel better about things if we were.

 

If you look at Sagarin's rankings this team really isn't that much worse in quality than recent teams

 

2015 - 46th (Riley's 1st year)

2014 - 29th (Pelini's 7th year)

2013 - 38th (Pelini's 6th year)

 

Would be nice to get some wins down the stretch to feel better about the whole operation.

 

The larger point that we need to start playing better football in general is true regardless of record. Do that consistently and the wins will come, both big and small. I think it starts on the recruiting trail. Trying to get blood out of a stone is difficult. It created a ceiling for Pelini and has this staff struggling early.

[BoNeyard]

if we were 5-3 there would be excitement and hope for Riley's next 4 years.

 

But amazing what a win and loss record does for a team. 3-5 and everything is gloomy.

[Sargon]

if we were 5-3 there would be excitement and hope for Riley's next 4 years.

 

But amazing what a win and loss record does for a team. 3-5 and everything is gloomy.

 

I doubt many fans are overly gloomy about the staff because of the 3-5 record. Not sure but I doubt it. My guess is that most of the excessive negativity is coming from a small minority of vocal (vocal *now*) fans. Some of the small group are people who really don't understand analytics at all. 3-5 to them is dispositive. The end. Then there are some agenda folks anti mike, AD, or Perlman plus some pro Bo's. And last but not least are the complainers. They do it because it's what they do. 3-5 is good fodder.

 

Zoogs thanks for the op. Interesting.

[suh_fan93]

 

if we were 5-3 there would be excitement and hope for Riley's next 4 years.

 

But amazing what a win and loss record does for a team. 3-5 and everything is gloomy.

 

I doubt many fans are overly gloomy about the staff because of the 3-5 record. Not sure but I doubt it. My guess is that most of the excessive negativity is coming from a small minority of vocal (vocal *now*) fans. Some of the small group are people who really don't understand analytics at all. 3-5 to them is dispositive. The end. Then there are some agenda folks anti mike, AD, or Perlman plus some pro Bo's. And last but not least are the complainers. They do it because it's what they do. 3-5 is good fodder.

 

Zoogs thanks for the op. Interesting.

 

 

We have one of the better receiving corps in the country, supposedly one of the better defensive lines in the country. A 3rd year returning quarterback. One of the best punt returners in the country yet having said all of that we are sitting at 3-5 but again it's not about the record. Coaching. Plain and simple it's the coaching. Nothing else for me at least.

[Huskers19911]

DPE hasn't played in every game.

[cm husker]

 

if we were 5-3 there would be excitement and hope for Riley's next 4 years.

 

But amazing what a win and loss record does for a team. 3-5 and everything is gloomy.

 

I doubt many fans are overly gloomy about the staff because of the 3-5 record. Not sure but I doubt it. My guess is that most of the excessive negativity is coming from a small minority of vocal (vocal *now*) fans. Some of the small group are people who really don't understand analytics at all. 3-5 to them is dispositive. The end. Then there are some agenda folks anti mike, AD, or Perlman plus some pro Bo's. And last but not least are the complainers. They do it because it's what they do. 3-5 is good fodder.

 

Zoogs thanks for the op. Interesting.

 

 

I'm not anti-Mike (but am very anti-Pederson, I mean Eichorst, and his boss).

 

NU screwed up big time going against what TO thought was best for football. We'll suffer the penalty, and all the pretzeled "analytics" aside, this is a .500 staff doing what a .500 staff does.

 

Knute Rockne and Bob Devaney would have a hell of a chuckle over this nonsense.

 

And of course the bottom line is that NU didn't upgrade at all. At best we stayed the same, but have a super nice laid back senior citizen coaching the Huskers now.

[Count 'Bility]

Rockne and devanays heads would f'ing explode at how the game is coached and played today. God. Quit living in the past. Embrace history. Just dont live in it. Once you quit chasin the good ole days and get with the program, youll have a lot more success. Thats probably the biggets thing hilding this program back right now. So much clamore for the good ole days. Days that are NEVER COMING BACK.

[Sargon]

I'm going to try brevity to see if it works better. Here goes.

 

I doubt many fans are overly gloomy about the staff because of the 3-5 record. Not sure but I doubt it.

[Sargon]

 

 

if we were 5-3 there would be excitement and hope for Riley's next 4 years.

 

But amazing what a win and loss record does for a team. 3-5 and everything is gloomy.

 

I doubt many fans are overly gloomy about the staff because of the 3-5 record. Not sure but I doubt it. My guess is that most of the excessive negativity is coming from a small minority of vocal (vocal *now*) fans. Some of the small group are people who really don't understand analytics at all. 3-5 to them is dispositive. The end. Then there are some agenda folks anti mike, AD, or Perlman plus some pro Bo's. And last but not least are the complainers. They do it because it's what they do. 3-5 is good fodder.

 

Zoogs thanks for the op. Interesting.

 

 

We have one of the better receiving corps in the country, supposedly one of the better defensive lines in the country. A 3rd year returning quarterback. One of the best punt returners in the country yet having said all of that we are sitting at 3-5 but again it's not about the record. Coaching. Plain and simple it's the coaching. Nothing else for me at least.

 

 

1st you have 4 anecdotes of debatable relevance and accuracy.

 

2nd you state our (losing) record followed by "but again it's not about the record." Why type 3-5 then immediately say it's not about it? Seems the opposite of clear communication to me.

 

Last..."it's the coaching." What is? I assume you mean our coaching is not good enough and therefore .....something. I don't know what that something is you didn't say.

[Guy Chamberlin]

This staff was never considered an upgrade. Not sure you need metrics to see how this one was/is going to play out.

 

The staff was considered an upgrade by almost everyone at almost every position until a few weeks ago.

[cm husker]

It's absolutely about the record. And not just 3-5.

 

People who pretend it's not about results are the worst sort of apologists.

 

I get disagreement about what are acceptable results.

 

But to pretend that this team is the same as other teams or better than all other 5 loss teams or some other obscure comparison... Spare me.

[cm husker]

Rockne and devanays heads would f'ing explode at how the game is coached and played today. God. Quit living in the past. Embrace history. Just dont live in it. Once you quit chasin the good ole days and get with the program, youll have a lot more success. Thats probably the biggets thing hilding this program back right now. So much clamore for the good ole days. Days that are NEVER COMING BACK.

You thoroughly missed the point.

 

Feel free to replace them with any actually successful coach today.

[cm husker]

 

 

This staff was never considered an upgrade. Not sure you need metrics to see how this one was/is going to play out.

The staff was considered an upgrade by almost everyone at almost every position until a few weeks ago.

The power of rationalization is strong in people.

 

I would like to know how Cav was ever considered an upgrade over a young, knowledgeable, enthusiastic garrison, for example. Or how we upgraded at RB, OC or DB. Don't get me stated on DC.

 

Maybe the wr and lb coaching changes were a wash.