Dr. Strangelove

If Trump loses, it'll be interesting to see where the GOP goes. Will they shed MAGA (and the horde of voters that come with it) or will they simply gravitate towards Great Value Trump - Ron DeSantis or somebody similar - who attempts to recreate Trumps authoritarian-populism? Part of the problem of a politician doing that is MAGA voters are so knee-deep in conspiracy theories, they may not trust anybody that isn't Trump himself. Hopefully they start nominating normal candidates in the future. It's possible! There's some evidence that a large chunk of voters haven't really calculated in that Trump is the nominee. Once presented with the choice that we're in for a Trump - Biden rematch, voters may heavily gravitate towards Biden. Realistically, there are so few swing states and those states are going to be extremely close that it's difficult for either Trump or Biden to be favored. I'm still leaning 55% towards Trump.

He doesn't need many, if any, new voters to win. He needs an extremely small number, just a few thousand, of voters spread across three states to change their minds. In order to win, Biden probably needs to win the popular vote by 5-5.5%, margins that probably aren't possible. His path is difficult.

This is pretty typical of Trump voters to be fair. Voters don't want to be seen as the bad guys voting for obvious authoritarian morons that are incompetent leaders bag for the Untied States and the world. But those voters want obvious authoritarian morons who are incompetent leaders who are bad, so they vote for them. They just don't want it to be known. There are millions of loud Trump voters unashamed of what they want, but there are millions of others who are equally dangerous but are simply quiet about it.

I thought I've explained this many times, but I guess it's better to have hope like this than not. Trump is the nominee. It's not even close. The only states he might lose in the primary are Iowa and New Hampshire. A win in either or both states means that what small chance an alternative candidate has is all but gone.

Trump is virtually locked to be the Republican candidate and is still slightly favored to win in November. Dramatically lower your expectations for the average American voter. Joe Biden faces an uphill climb.

Well, by not even negotiating to see it kind of shows which side is unserious. But until their voters punish them, which you never will, why should they negotiate? You vote for them anyway. No matter the moral rot, Republican voters are steadfast in their dedication to rewarding political theater over substance.

This is the exact problem. Republicans aren't serious about Immigration and want to pin the problems on Democrats. Democrats are the ones actually trying to cut a deal here, Republicans are actively avoiding one for political purposes. HR 2 is designed to be a Republican wish list that is inadequate to actually address immigration problems. By not being serious about the glaring deficiencies in their bill - which Democrats are willing to address and what Republicans are well aware of - it just shows the partisan nature of their politics and why Republican voters continue to reward political theater over substance.

Well, the issue with HR 2 is that it passed with no Democrat support. It aggressively curbs Asylum, funds the wall, and puts the onus on US Employers to verify - under penalty of prison - that their workers are documented via E-Verify. While some provisions are viable - increasing the requirements for Asylum seekers, for example - are good, mandating documented employees without simultaneously increasing legal immigration for agricultural workers is pointless. If Republicans are serious about the border, which I don't think they are, they have an opportunity to actually help border states who are overwhelmed and lack resources. They have a perfect opportunity to cut ac deal to limit Asylum, mandate E-Verify, but trade-off increasing caps on Agricultural workers and other forms of legal immigration on other sections of the economy that rely on undocumented labor. Republicans can get 80% of what they want regarding HR 2, and what they give up is simply common sense. I hope they set aside their election year bulls#!t and get something done.

As you should be! Unfortunately, the war despite what either side says is probably going to end up as a stalemate. A pyrrhic victory for Russia in which they've gained a small amount of territory they didn't already control, lost hundreds of thousands of lives and suffered a complete strategic defeat with NATO expansion on their borders and a showcase of their military ineffectiveness. They want to eventually reclaim all lost Soviet territory, so in the long term their goal is to destabilize NATO and eventually attack Baltic states, although those plans have more been set back decades.

If by "Trumps lawyers are bad and their client is an idiot" you mean the corrupt deep state run by Democ-RATS smothering Trump and preventing him from speaking THE TRUTH (which he always does), then you are correct.

Everytime you get your truck to emit that black smoke onto the Prius behind you, it's actually possible to hear the Star Spangled Banner playing off in the distance.

My best guess is that believing that Democrats have destroyed American energy confirms their belief that they are job destroying heathens who are responsible for the costs of their electric bills rising and why it costs more to fill up their F-750 TankLites with a V8 MAXXX Engine they use to commute 35 miles to work from the burbs each day.

Putins entire plan for helping Trump was to destabilize NATO and invade Ukraine and Moldova. Eventually, with complete US withdrawal from NATO, Russia wants to attack the Baltic States. It's the Russian manifest destiny to push their sphere of influence as far West as possible. It's why they've spent the the last 200 years as the Russian Empire and later the Soviet Union doing just that.

Very true. If this happens, any alternative Republican candidate probably wins in an electoral college blowout.

This makes a lot of sense. Honestly, I think it's a good way to use NIL resources. I wonder if current scholarship players will also "walk on" in order to make the numbers work for tyke incoming recruiting class.

Played in 11 out of 12 for Florida and started at Baylor. Rumor is he may walk on but that hasn't been confirmed. Either way, our depth at Guard was suspect so getting this guy is a big deal for us I think!

First thing to remember about the deeply serious and totally not political hackery "investigation" by Congressional Republicans is that it is not meant for voters like you and me. The goal isn't to uncover wrongdoing by the President, because there's no evidence, but to motivate a certain type of voter. Those that can be persuaded of what they want to be true with no actual evidence to back it up. If Republicans give these voters what they crave, they'll show up in November and vote for the most embarrassing, moronic, historically contemptible candidate in American history. And it's because he represents those voters and what they believe.

If the American people want him as President - because they believe what he says, like what he does and reflects their values - they deserve the opportunity to elect him. Frankly the fact that he's favored to win tells me enough about the median voter in this country and how stupid they are, so I say we give them the leadership they deserve.

When they drive the school bus off the road it really kills me.

Right, it's a total package of scenarios. But I think it's a better illustration to say that low inventory of houses caused by zoning, combined with a demographic shift of millennials entering their 30s is a powder keg. The sudden drop in interest rates was the fuse that set it off. Chances are housing was going to be pushed to extreme levels because of demographics eventually and COVID accelerated it.

I was wondering if any other old people would catch that. They are, after all, 65 tons of American Pride!

Yeah, to be fair to Donald Trump he just said what the American electorate wants. It's why he says and does stupid things. Americans like what he's selling.

If the median American voter cared they'd re-elect Biden. The median American voter does not care and seem likely to elect Trump.

While true, local zoning limiting supply is far and away the single biggest driver to housing costs. It's also the main factor that voters can control. Some states have realized the tremendous benefit to making housing cheap and easy to build, like Texas. If there's one thing that Republican's in states like Texas, Florida and North Carolina have done well it's been building houses and doing so in a cost efficient way. That doesn't mean their housing policy is perfect, but compare them to the historical policy of California and what their residents have done to housing... it's insane.

The housing costs rising were the result of a historic plunge in mortgage rates, with simultaneous low inventory post 2008. Simply put: the demand for single family homes is extreme. The number of millennial couples in their prime earning years entering the housing since 2020 numbers in the millions.