Breaking down the Big East race

JTrain · November 18, 2010

As has been discussed in about 17 threads, a win in the Big 12 CCG makes it 95% likely that we play the Big East champion in the Fiesta Bowl. But I haven't seen any detailed discussion of who the Big East champion will actually turn out to be.

Here are the contenders with remaining conference schedules:

Pitt (3-1) holds tiebreaker over Syracuse

@ USF (Pitt -2.5)

vs. West Virginia

@ Cincinnati

If they're going to lose, they want it to be against Cincinnati, giving them great positioning in two-team tiebreakers.

Wins Big East by winning out

Ties Big East by going 2-1

Syracuse (4-2) holds tiebreakers over USF and WVU

vs. UConn (Syracuse -4)

Ties Big East by beating UConn and at least one Pitt loss

USF (3-2) holds no current tiebreakers

vs. Pitt (Pitt -2.5)

vs. UConn

Ties Big East by winning out

West Virginia (2-2) holds tiebreaker over USF

@ Louisville (WVU -5)

@ Pitt

vs. Rutgers

Ties Big East by winning out

UConn (2-2) holds tiebreakers over WVU and Pitt

@ Syracuse (Syracuse -4)

vs. Cincinnati

@ USF

Wins Big East by winning out and at a Pitt loss

In the event of a two-team tie, the team that won the head to head game goes to the BCS bowl.

------> See tiebreaker holders above

In the event of a three-team tie:

------> USF, Pitt, Syracuse:

------------> Since head-to-head records would all be 1-1, the BCS standings leader goes to the BCS. If USF beats Miami, it's 90% likely to be USF. If USF loses to Miami, it's 90% likely to be Syracuse. Pitt has a tiny chance if the pollsters just aren't paying much attention.

------> UConn, Pitt, West Virginia:

------------> UConn wins both tiebreakers and goes to the BCS.

------> USF, Syracuse, West Virginia:

------------> Syracuse wins both tiebreakers and goes to the BCS.

Final anaylsis: Syracuse is probably the most likely to play in the BCS with only one game left. They are at home and favored. They hold a solid position in the tiebreaker scenarios (Pitt could lose two or USF could beat Pitt and UConn but lose to Miami). Pitt controls its own destiny but has a very tough remaining schedule and is unlikely to win out. UConn is in a great spot tiebreaker wise but is also hurt by a tough remaining schedule. WVU has a slightly easier road than those two but needs more help, as they do not hold good position in most tiebreaker scenarios. USF has both remaining conference games at home but isn't in very good tiebreaker shape, and would need to upset Miami in their last non-conference game to win the three-team tie with Pitt and Syracuse. None of these five teams is a long shot.