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Week 5 "Expert" Picks: Ohio State @ Nebraska


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Yahoo! Sports -

 

Gerry Ahern (
N
) - Tom Dienhart (
N
) - Mike Hugenin (
N
) - Yahoo! Users (
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)

 

THE BUZZ: Huskers coach Bo Pelini coaches against his alma mater for the first time. Both are coming off embarrassing losses, Ohio State to Michigan in a game in which its offense did nothing and Nebraska to Wisconsin in a game in which its defense did nothing.

THE PICK:
Nebraska 28
-
Ohio State 13

 

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Phil Steele -

 

Last met in ‘56. First B10 HG ever for Neb. The Bucks were 21-3 the L/6Y with the avg win by 20 ppg but that was under Tressel. NU HC Pelini is an OSU grad. Both teams come in after humbling results as OSU scored with just :19 left to avoid their 1st home shutout S/’82. MSU dominated the LOS holding the Bucks to just 110 yds until their final drive while piling up 9 sks. The Spartans were SOD at the OSU36, fmbl’d at the OSU25, int’d at the OSU6 and 20 and also missed a 51 yd FG in a misleading final. HC Fickell said after the gm the QB competition will be open in practice TW to all 4 schlrshp QB’s after true Fr Miller struggled (5-10-56 with 1 int) while Bauserman hit 7-14-87 and 1 TD while QB’ing the entire 4Q. OSU allows 94 rush ypg (3.2). After NU took a 14-7 early 2Q lead the Badgers scored 6 TD on their final 8 poss to roll to a 48-17 win in which they had a 486-335 yd edge. NU QB Martinez was contained by UW throwing 3 int although he’s still #4 B10 in rush (482, 5.8), he’s fallen to #11 pass eff (165, 50%, 4-5 ratio). NU had their D’s Big 3 (DT Crick, LB David and CB Dennard) on the field for the 1st time TY but the Blackshirts are allowing an alarming 27 ppg. OSU will put forth a better effort on offense this week but it won't be enough here.

 

PHIL’S FORECAST:
NEBRASKA 27
-
OHIO STATE 17

 

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CBS Sports -

 

Dennis Dodd (
N
) - Brett McMurphy (
N
) - Tom Fornelli (
N
)

Adam Jacobi (
N
) - Jerry Hinnen (
N
) - Chip Patterson (
N
)

 

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Collegefootballnews.com -

 

Ohio State (3-2) at Nebraska (4-1) Oct. 8, 8:00, ABC

 

Here’s The Deal … Can’t these two
EVER
play a meaningful game?

 

Ohio State and Nebraska are obviously two of the greatest programs in college football history, with legacies and legends that have been part of the very definition of the sport almost since it began. But when it comes to these two superpowers among superpowers playing each other, there’s a gaping hole.

 

You’d think that they’d have met somewhere at some point in some bowl game. Nope.

 

You’d think that they’d have played some epic national title colossus that ranks among the greatest games in the history of time. They came close at times in the 1990s, but no.

 

You’d think that they’d have come up with some sort of a regular home-and-home arrangement. Not really.

 

Separated by a not-that-far-in-college-football-world 800 miles – roughly the distance between Minneapolis and Columbus and shorter than a trip from Lincoln to Austin – it’s been a college football travesty that the only two times they’ve played were in the 1955 and 1956 season openers, and both teams sort of stunk then, too.

 

The grand design by all the mighty powers-that-be was for this to be the showcase game for the new and supposedly improved Big Ten, at least until the inaugural championship game.

 

Ohio State got a slap on the wrist for its shenanigans, but remember, this was the game when all the suspended players were supposed to be back, including Terrelle Pryor, while Jim Tressel was never, ever, ever going to be suspended long enough to be out for a prime time matchup of this magnitude.

 

Nebraska was supposed to pay homage to Husker alum Barry Alvarez by beating his Badgers in the regular season opener, Ohio State was supposed to circle the wagons and outtalent Michigan State, and then these two were going to get it on in a possible Big Ten Championship preview.

 

Instead, Ohio State replaced Tressel with Adam Sandler look-alike Luke Fickell; Pryor is serving his suspension – for reasons no one is quite sure why – as an Oakland Raider; and two of the key suspended players – running back Dan Herron and receiver DeVier Posey – despite all the drama swirling around the program, took money for no-show jobs and are now suspended indefinitely.

 

All of that would be fine if
THE
2011 Ohio State University Buckeyes weren’t so bad at playing college football.

 

Meanwhile, Nebraska, who hasn’t won a game of true significance since a 20-10 classic over Oklahoma in 2001, made the curious decision to leave its defense back in the Big 12, and has chosen to ignore the concept of the forward pass over the first month of the season.

 

The Huskers won their first four games by double digits, but they were shaky, while Ohio State should’ve lost to Toledo, didn’t show up against Miami, and were miserable against Michigan State. It’s a bit of a stretch to suggest that the loser this week is in trouble for a decent bowl bid, but this is probably an elimination game in the Big Ten title chase.

 

But it’s still Ohio State vs. Nebraska. At least in theory, and at least in a historical matchup sense, it still matters.

 

Why Ohio State Might Win: Nebraska can’t throw. Ohio State might be sputtering, and it might undermanned, and it might be struggling, but the run defense is more than fine, allowing just 612 yards to far with Miami’s Lamar Miller doing the most damage on one 52-yard run early in the mid-September win. Michigan State and Toledo couldn’t run the ball a lick, and Toledo didn’t even try.

 

Nebraska’s offensive like is okay, but it didn’t create any major holes for Taylor Martinez or Rex Burkhead last week, and when they did get a little room to move, the Badger linebacking corps swallowed everything up. The Huskers’ longest run was just 12 yards, and with no passing game to pick up the slack, it became a blowout in a hurry.

 

This isn’t a vintage Ohio State defense, but considering it’s not getting any support from the offense, it’s doing fine. There’s the normal array of NFL prospects and five-star recruits along the OSU front seven, and while it’s not getting into the backfield, it doesn’t have to in this game. If Nebraska couldn’t throw on the depleted UW secondary, it’s not going to have any more success against a far better Buckeye secondary that’s been one of the team’s strong spots so far.

 

Why Nebraska Might Win: Nebraska can’t throw the ball, but Ohio State really can’t do anything down the field.

 

All the focus and attention is on a quarterback situation with not-ready-yet freshman Braxton Miller and it’s-just-not-working veteran Joe Bauserman, but they don’t have anyone to throw to. The loss of Posey is a killer, while last week’s leading receiver with four catches for 43 yards, Verlon Reed, tore his ACL on an onside kick attempt. All Nebraska has to do is put two guys on tight end Jake Stoneburner, and the Buckeye passing game is kaput.

 

The Husker running game might have problems against good teams, but at least it works at times. Michigan State loaded up on the run and allowed 35 yards on 39 carries, with 110 net yards offset by nine sacks allowed by an embarrassing day from the offensive line. Nebraska hasn’t generated much of a pass rush so far, and didn’t do much to scare Russell Wilson last week, but after the total and complete domination by the Spartans in Columbus, Jared Crick and the Husker line have to be drooling. However, OSU gets a huge piece of the puzzle back in …

 

What To Watch Out For: Mike Adams. OSU isn’t getting all its suspended players back, but Adams, an NFL starting-caliber tackle, should be a huge help at just the right time. At 6-8 and 308 pounds he has excellent size and a tough frame to get around, but he has to be an even more consistent pass protector and has to do more to bury his man on a regular basis. The big key over the second half of this year is his health after suffering shoulder and knee injuries earlier in his career, but he’s rested and ready to go for Nebraska.

 

Taylor Martinez has to be better. He wasn’t awful running the ball against Wisconsin, with 61 yards and a score on 20 carries, but his three interceptions were disastrous with a pick to start the second half all but ending the game. He’s barely hitting half of his passes and only has four touchdown passes to go along with five picks, and while he has rushed for 482 yards and five scores, 301 of the yards and five of the touchdowns came against Chattanooga and Fresno State.

 

What Will Happen: First one to ten wins? Ohio State’s offense was expecting a shot in the arm this week with the expectation of Posey and Herron coming back, and now the balloon is popped and it’s Braxton Miller or bust – at least until he falls flat. Nebraska’s offense isn’t going to blow up, but Martinez won’t make the mistakes he made last week, the defense will be dominant, and Brett Maher will hit just enough bombs to give the Huskers their first Big Ten win.

 

CFN Prediction:
Nebraska 19
-
Ohio State 13

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ESPN Bloggers -

 

Brian Bennett: Finally a cure for the Blackshirts' defense: the sputtering Ohio State offense. I think the Buckeyes move the ball a little better this week with Mike Adams helping the run game, and they get help from another costly
turnover. But it's still not enough to win in Lincoln against a team that can actually, you know, score.

Nebraska 24
-
Ohio State 16

 

Adam Rittenberg: Martinez is mad and Bo Pelini was embarrassed by the Nebraska defense's performance at Wisconsin. This isn't a good situation for a reeling Ohio State team to enter. The Buckeyes' defense keeps this close for a while, but the offensive struggles continue as the Huskers lock it down.

Nebraska 27
-
Ohio State 14

 

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