Scarlet Overkill Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Because I was seriously bored, and kind of geeky.... I used Sagarin as a predictor of how each division would finish. (commentary below it) Leaders Team Conf Record non-div record Wisconsin 8-0 3-0 Penn State 6-2 3-0 Ohio State 4-4 0-3 Illinois 4-4 2-1 Purdue 2-6 0-3 Indiana 0-8 0-3 Legends Team Conf Record non-div record Michigan St 7-1 2-1 Michigan 7-1 3-0 Nebraska 4-4 1-2 Iowa 4-4 2-1 Northw'tern 1-7 1-2 Minnesota 0-8 0-3 And that is why they play the games because the computer doesn't take into account anything other than some numbers. Using the predictor, Michigan State is favored by less than a point, and Penn State is favored by about 2 points. I like the fact that MSU plays Wisconsin the week before us, and we're at home for that game as well. Quote Link to comment
NUance Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Nebraska 4-4 1-2 So Sagarin has us going 2-3 in the rest of our schedule??? Wow, that code really hates us. I suppose Sagarin only has us beating NW and the Idiots. Quote Link to comment
Scarlet Overkill Posted October 16, 2011 Author Share Posted October 16, 2011 3-3, but close enough margin to also be 5-1 the rest of the way. If either scenario holds true, we'll need some outside help to get to Indy. Quote Link to comment
NUance Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 3-3, but close enough margin to also be 5-1 the rest of the way. If either scenario holds true, we'll need some outside help to get to Indy. Which games does it having us lose the worst? I'm guessing Michigan worst, then Mich St, followed by Penn State. Quote Link to comment
Excel Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 How do you do this? I'm very interested Quote Link to comment
Scarlet Overkill Posted October 16, 2011 Author Share Posted October 16, 2011 Big wins vs Iowa (13) , Minn (26), NW (19) Fairly large loss vs Michigan (-9) very close losses vs MSU (-0.4), PSU (-2). Quote Link to comment
sd'sker Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Big wins vs Iowa (13) , Minn (26), NW (19) Fairly large loss vs Michigan (-9) very close losses vs MSU (-0.4), PSU (-2). if we don't improve, that is probably generous. if we improve, we should definitely beat psu, probably michigan, and maybe michigan st. Quote Link to comment
Scarlet Overkill Posted October 16, 2011 Author Share Posted October 16, 2011 How do you do this? I'm very interested I reviewed the future Big Ten conference schedules and used the 2nd to last column, 'Predictor' , from the Sagarin ratings on http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbc11.htm, and then adding/subtracting 3 depending on if it was a home/away game. Quote Link to comment
HuskerFanChuck Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Sagarin is also the first to say that his predictor column can vary widely earlier in the season, and the more games you have factored in, the more accurate it becomes. Quote Link to comment
Scarlet Overkill Posted October 16, 2011 Author Share Posted October 16, 2011 Right, because the teams haven't been connected fully. At this point of the season, it's now supposedly more accurate. Quote Link to comment
HuskerFanChuck Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Aye... more accurate now than two or three weeks in, but not as accurate as it is when you get to mid-November. But you're right GC, it should be getting to the point of decent accuracy. Just wanted to clarify that Sagarin also says the more data to input, the better the output with his predictors. Quote Link to comment
Scarlet Overkill Posted October 16, 2011 Author Share Posted October 16, 2011 Of course - by the end of the season it'll be fairly accurate, but then what's the point of predictions, and did I mention I was bored? Quote Link to comment
HuskerFanChuck Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 ROFL I know the feeling, GC. I know the feeling. Quote Link to comment
sd'sker Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Geeks... i'm just glad someone is lame enough to do the research. Quote Link to comment
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