AR Husker Fan Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Do those factor in the latest debate? Link to comment
carlfense Posted October 19, 2012 Author Share Posted October 19, 2012 Do those factor in the latest debate? Somewhat. They partially use 3 day tracking polls, partially use 7 day tracking polls, etc. Some of the polls include results since Tuesday. Some don't. For example: http://www.realclear...obama-1171.html Link to comment
carlfense Posted November 2, 2012 Author Share Posted November 2, 2012 RCP General Election: Obama +.3 RCP Ohio: Obama +2.3 RCP Florida: Romney +1.2 RCP Virginia: Romney +.5 RCP NC: Romney +3.8 RCP PA: Obama +4.6 Silver Chance of Winning: Obama 80.9%, Romney 19.1% Silver Electoral Votes: Obama 303.4, Romney 234.6 Link to comment
Mavric Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Current RCP No Toss Ups Map: My prediction: Wouldn't that be fun. Link to comment
carlfense Posted November 2, 2012 Author Share Posted November 2, 2012 My prediction: Wouldn't that be fun. I kind of doubt that Romney will win Nevada, Colorado, and Iowa when he trails in all three. He might pick off 1 . . . maybe even 2 . . . but all three would be quite a surprise. Link to comment
Mavric Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 My prediction: Wouldn't that be fun. I kind of doubt that Romney will win Nevada, Colorado, and Iowa when he trails in all three. He might pick off 1 . . . maybe even 2 . . . but all three would be quite a surprise. I would be surprised if he wins more than Colorado. It was just the first way I found to get a 269 tie. Link to comment
carlfense Posted November 2, 2012 Author Share Posted November 2, 2012 My prediction: Wouldn't that be fun. I kind of doubt that Romney will win Nevada, Colorado, and Iowa when he trails in all three. He might pick off 1 . . . maybe even 2 . . . but all three would be quite a surprise. I would be surprised if he wins more than Colorado. It was just the first way I found to get a 269 tie. Ah. No one really wants to see a Romney/Biden presidency. Link to comment
Mavric Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 I think it's pretty obvious that Romney will have to pick up Ohio and one of those three states to win - most likely Colorado, although he seems to have some chance in New Hampshire as well which would also be enough (barely). Doesn't really seem to be any other way he can win. Link to comment
Comish Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 I think it's pretty obvious that Romney will have to pick up Ohio and one of those three states to win - most likely Colorado, although he seems to have some chance in New Hampshire as well which would also be enough (barely). Doesn't really seem to be any other way he can win. There are multiple paths (although much tougher, I agree. Ohio is really crucial to both candidates). But, for instance, Ohio could be offset with Wisconsin (which also has a more favorable voter profile for Romney and the advantage of a built in ground game because of the ongoing Walker recalls) and a wild card surprise from a New Hampshire type pick-up. Although the electoral college heavily favors Obama so you are basically correct. It can be done without Ohio, but much, much tougher. Link to comment
Comish Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 My prediction: Wouldn't that be fun. I kind of doubt that Romney will win Nevada, Colorado, and Iowa when he trails in all three. He might pick off 1 . . . maybe even 2 . . . but all three would be quite a surprise. I would be surprised if he wins more than Colorado. It was just the first way I found to get a 269 tie. Ah. No one really wants to see a Romney/Biden presidency. Put them both on "Are you smarter than a 5th Grader" and make it winner take all............... Link to comment
carlfense Posted January 11, 2013 Author Share Posted January 11, 2013 *bump* http://www.huskerboa...ost__p__1019738 We don't have to "wait and see" about the myth of the teleprompter. Go back and look at the 2008 debates. Obama shredded McCain. The polls aren't all over the place. If you can find some from reputable sources that show Romney is in the lead, I'd love to see them. But the major, trusted pollsters have Obama in the lead, and gaining. And if all Romney tries to do is goad Obama into losing his composure, he'll have a hell of a time at it. First, the public will see right through that. Romney isn't Mr. Smooth that could just subtly pull something like that off. Second, we've witnessed four years of Republican attempts to put Obama into a loss of composure and it hasn't worked yet. Mitt isn't the guy to get that done. http://unskewedpolls.com/ If you change the dynamics of every poll they clearly show that Romney is going to win in a landslide. (I wonder what will happen when that particular echo chamber collapses in on itself. When reality and fantasy meet . . . it might not be pretty. I'm predicting widespread claims of voter fraud . . . probably perpetrated by George Soros.) That Unskewed Polls guy? Now runs this website: http://www.barackofraudo.com/ Heh. Link to comment
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