2012 Presidential Election Polls

[carlfense]

How many are following these daily? Anyways, these are the most comprehensive sources, IMO.

 

Average of Polls - http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

Electoral College Map - http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

Nate Silver - http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

 

Currently:

Nationally - Obama +1.4

Ohio - Obama +2.0

Florida - Tie

[JJ Husker]

Looks to be good sites to keep up with the polls but, all the Obama ads on the realclear site lead me to think there may be some bias there.

[carlfense]

Looks to be good sites to keep up with the polls but, all the Obama ads on the realclear site lead me to think there may be some bias there.

There's ads on that site? If you use Firefox or Chrome you should use AdBlock Plus.

http://adblockplus.org/en/

 

I don't know if RCP can be biased per se . . . they just average the available polls. I don't think that they conduct any polling themselves or do any commentary. It's just the numbers.

[bhamHusker]

RCP was founded by a couple of conservatives who were frustrated with other aggregators for being too biased to the left. Their own content tends to skew rightward as do many of the stories they link. That said, they do a relatively good effort to represent both sides of the American spectrum: far-right (Republicans) and slightly less right-wing (Democrats).

 

As for the ads, I had to turn on ads for that site to see them. The ad service they use, doubleclick, is pushing ads for candidates and causes across the narrow US ideological spectrum. In the last few minutes on RCP, I've gotten no ads for Obama, but I've gotten plenty for Michele Bachmann, for a group that wants to bomb the snot out of Iran, the Sierra Club, and encouraged to "Join Billy Graham in declaring, 'I have hope for America because of Jesus'", an allegedly non-partisan (I always become suspicious when that's a group's first claim) citizens group, and some random right-wing political groups and websites.

[JJ Husker]

Well it's kind of funny (or scary) but, I clicked the links again, quite a few times, and not once did I get anything approaching conservative or what bham described. Still got Obama victory fund most everytime with some classmates or non- political stuff sprinkled in.

 

I don't think firefox or chrome will help me on my droid but I might breakdown and try something other than ie on my PC so I can try out those ad blockers.

[Moiraine]

I use

 

http://Http://electoral-vote.com and have been for about 8 years.

[carlfense]

RCP General Election Average (post-convention bump for Romney): Tie

 

Nate Silver: 76% chance that Obama is re-elected. (Up 12.8 points since August 28.)

Nate Siver, Ohio: 72% chance of Obama win.

Nate Silver, Florida: 62% chance of Obama win.

 

Those numbers (if they match Romney's own numbers) probably have Romney losing sleep.

[sd'sker]

I use

 

Http://electoral-vote.com and have been for about 8 years.

i like that site as well. looks like they updated from angelfire to geocities.

[carlfense]

I use

 

Http://electoral-vote.com and have been for about 8 years.

i like that site as well. looks like they updated from angelfire to geocities.

at the "Rasmussen Free Maps" button.

[JJ Husker]

Interesting analysis; look at the electoral map and then compare the solidly Obama states to the solidly Romney states. If you're for Obama, are these really the states that speak to your values? I think looking at it that way says a whole bunch about Obama and his type of supporters. Maybe it's just me.

[carlfense]

Interesting analysis; look at the electoral map and then compare the solidly Obama states to the solidly Romney states. If you're for Obama, are these really the states that speak to your values? I think looking at it that way says a whole bunch about Obama and his type of supporters. Maybe it's just me.

I don't think that any state really represents my values. Does any state represent your values?

[JJ Husker]

 

I don't think that any state really represents my values. Does any state represent your values?

 

It's not that any state represents our values. Rather that our values tend to mirror the predominate values found in certain states. Take California for example, a solidly Obama state. Would you not agree that an Obama supporters values would more closely align with the majority of people there, more so than with those found in a state such as Nebraska, a solidly Romney state? It doesn't seem like an observation that can even attempt to be challenged. Of course no one single persons values would align with all the predominate values found in any single state. That would be a silly proposition. It just strikes me that, if you're an Obama supporter, then you should look at solidly Obama states to determine where that general direction leads. Like I said, maybe it's just me over thinking it or presenting a self serving view. I don't know for sure.

[Landlord]

Makes a lot of sense that Nebraska, in the Bible belt, is a solidly Romney (Mormon) state. A lottttttt of sense.

[Moiraine]

 

 

It is an observation that can be challenged because most people don't have opinions that follow one particular party's philosophy exactly. And there are lots of people close to the center.

[carlfense]

I don't think that any state really represents my values. Does any state represent your values?

 

It's not that any state represents our values. Rather that our values tend to mirror the predominate values found in certain states. Take California for example, a solidly Obama state. Would you not agree that an Obama supporters values would more closely align with the majority of people there, more so than with those found in a state such as Nebraska, a solidly Romney state? It doesn't seem like an observation that can even attempt to be challenged. Of course no one single persons values would align with all the predominate values found in any single state. That would be a silly proposition. It just strikes me that, if you're an Obama supporter, then you should look at solidly Obama states to determine where that general direction leads. Like I said, maybe it's just me over thinking it or presenting a self serving view. I don't know for sure.

It depends on which values you are talking about.

 

If you'd like to single out California stereotypes as an example:

Celebration of diversity - sure

Environmental protection - sure

Healthy lifestyle - sure

Reckless deficit spending - nope

Hippies - nope

Blonde beach babes - nope (just in case my wife is reading. )

 

If you want to single out Nebraska stereotypes as an example:

Fiscal responsibility - sure

Refusing to learn lessons from the legislative mistakes of other states - no

Obesity - no

Cornfields - sure

 

It's always going to be a mixed bag. I think looking at the legislative proposals and party platforms will give you a much better feel for the goals of the parties than cherry picking a few states.