2012 Presidential Election Polls

[Ziggy]

Free market....that is a novel idea.

[sd'sker]

you could put a pineapple in the white house and it wouldn't make any difference. Our country is controlled by the very rich who pay people lobbyists to get things that only benefit them. Unless there is some huge fundamental change in how laws are made or not made, the president is just someone for late night talk shows to make fun of.

 

Your statement is fairly correct if you take out the part I crossed out or at best add to it. Yes, the rich have the ability to affect politics with their money through donations and lobbyists. I'm not arguing that point. However, so do many other groups that I wouldn't call..."the very rich".

 

Look at Unions, NAACP, NOW, farmers, AARP and the list goes on and on and on.

 

Take money out of elections, and this country would be VERY different.

 

so special interest groups that represent the will of their individual members is the threat to democracy and not

Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission?

[krill]

Poll related, the two big Republican super-PAC's have pulled ads from PA and MI...Romney now needs to win every battleground state to win...OH, FL, WI, VA, CO, NV, IA, NC. If Obama wins a single one of those states, along with NH which is not really a battleground, it's over.

 

According to my math, that would put Obama at 241 electoral votes making Florida the only state Romney can't afford to lose.

 

252..small miscalculation, my fault. I had WI and NV marked Obama because Nate Silver has projected an 80%+ chance of victory for Obama in both states, which is close to where Rove decided to pull out of MI and PA. Statistically Romney needs a miracle.

 

[sd'sker]

Free market....that is a novel idea.

unregulated markets, that is an old idea of predictable disastrous results.

[Ziggy]

If only real life followed projections, we would always know where the hurricane was going to hit and at what strength. We would all be billionaires. Thankfully projections are only as good as the vacuum they are created in. Just like economics, you can never know how every variable is going to play out, or most likely what every variable even is. Sure its pretty safe to bet that Cal and most eastern states will be blue, and most southern and middle American states will be red, but it doesn't take much to swing a state like PA, IN, ill, or WI. It would be kind of interesting if Romney wins the popular vote but fails to win the Electoral college to see how the people who want to get rid of the EC react and vice versa.

[Ziggy]

Free market....that is a novel idea.

unregulated markets, that is an old idea of predictable disastrous results.

 

Did I say that it was a good idea? Let me check, nope I didn't. But over regulated markets are empire killers. USSR, Rome, the UK to name a few. Our economy needs to have some regulation, but I would argue over regulation is more harmful than under regulation to a nation's economic longevity.

[sd'sker]

Free market....that is a novel idea.

unregulated markets, that is an old idea of predictable disastrous results.

 

Did I say that it was a good idea? Let me check, nope I didn't. But over regulated markets are empire killers. USSR, Rome, the UK to name a few. Our economy needs to have some regulation, but I would argue over regulation is more harmful than under regulation to a nation's economic longevity.

then how do we not have a free market? where is the over-regulation?

[carlfense]

If only real life followed projections, we would always know where the hurricane was going to hit and at what strength. We would all be billionaires. Thankfully projections are only as good as the vacuum they are created in. Just like economics, you can never know how every variable is going to play out, or most likely what every variable even is. Sure its pretty safe to bet that Cal and most eastern states will be blue, and most southern and middle American states will be red, but it doesn't take much to swing a state like PA, IN, ill, or WI. It would be kind of interesting if Romney wins the popular vote but fails to win the Electoral college to see how the people who want to get rid of the EC react and vice versa.

I, for one, will want the EC gone regardless of the outcome of this election.

 

That said, the likelihood of either candidate winning the popular vote and losing the EC is very slim this cycle.

[Ziggy]

Carl, if it happens it would be Obama losing the EC. The likely hood of a Republican winning the popular vote and losing the EC is almost as unlikely as winning the lottery.

 

'sker....Over regulation, ethanol requirements, sugar subsidizes, bail out of GM, and energy subsidizes and regulation. To name a few.

[Lil' Red]

Poll related, the two big Republican super-PAC's have pulled ads from PA and MI...Romney now needs to win every battleground state to win...OH, FL, WI, VA, CO, NV, IA, NC. If Obama wins a single one of those states, along with NH which is not really a battleground, it's over.

 

According to my math, that would put Obama at 241 electoral votes making Florida the only state Romney can't afford to lose.

 

252..small miscalculation, my fault. I had WI and NV marked Obama because Nate Silver has projected an 80%+ chance of victory for Obama in both states, which is close to where Rove decided to pull out of MI and PA. Statistically Romney needs a miracle.

 

 

That makes sense. However, why is Indiana blue? Most of the electoral maps I've viewed have it leaning Romney.

[carlfense]

Carl, if it happens it would be Obama losing the EC. The likely hood of a Republican winning the popular vote and losing the EC is almost as unlikely as winning the lottery.

Any particular reason that you say that?

 

Silver says that the likelihood of Romney winning the popular vote and losing the EC is almost identical to Obama's chances.

[BigRedBuster]

Free market....that is a novel idea.

unregulated markets, that is an old idea of predictable disastrous results.

 

Did I say that it was a good idea? Let me check, nope I didn't. But over regulated markets are empire killers. USSR, Rome, the UK to name a few. Our economy needs to have some regulation, but I would argue over regulation is more harmful than under regulation to a nation's economic longevity.

 

Over regulation kills an economy when you are in a world market and the rest of the world don't have those regulations that drive up costs.

[carlfense]

Over regulation kills an economy when you are in a world market and the rest of the world don't have those regulations that drive up costs.

You want America to be like the rest of the world? What about American Exceptionalism? Rabble rabble.

[krill]

That makes sense. However, why is Indiana blue? Most of the electoral maps I've viewed have it leaning Romney.

 

257-191...at some point I will learn how to run the map.

 

Here are the statistical win chances from 538-

 

Battleground states-

 

FL (29) - Obama 63%

OH (18) - Obama 72%

NC (15) - Romney 60%

VI - (13) - Obama 73%

CO (9) - Obama 72%

IA (6) - Obama 72%

 

Contested (?) states-

 

AZ - Romney 87%

IN - Romney 89%

MO - Romney 85%

MT - Romney 87%

WI - Obama 81%

NV - Obama 82%

NH - Obama 83%

[carlfense]

That makes sense. However, why is Indiana blue? Most of the electoral maps I've viewed have it leaning Romney.

 

257-191...at some point I will learn how to run the map.

 

Here are the statistical win chances from 538-

 

Battleground states-

 

FL (29) - Obama 63%

OH (18) - Obama 72%

NC (15) - Romney 60%

VI - (13) - Obama 73%

CO (9) - Obama 72%

IA (6) - Obama 72%

Wow . . . I hadn't seen the numbers listed in a single place. Looks like quite the uphill battle for Mr. Romney. We'll see if his hundreds of millions of dollars in Super PAC ads change the dynamics.