KJ. Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 I get a kick out of when guys with journalism degrees, in absolute terms, say things like "the actuarial death spiral won't transpire for several reasons" and "thus preventing a death spiral" like it's some sort of done deal and they are the leading technical experts on projecting that. About the only thing you can say for certain right now is that the health system has not yet self destructed, and also not yet become as efficient and awesome as anyone could ever dream. Both those futures exist with non-zero probabilities, but acting like we have any idea which path we are more likely on after 15 days of 2014 makes no sense whatsoever. Link to comment
carlfense Posted January 16, 2014 Author Share Posted January 16, 2014 I get a kick out of when guys with journalism degrees, in absolute terms, say things like "the actuarial death spiral won't transpire for several reasons" and "thus preventing a death spiral" like it's some sort of done deal and they are the leading technical experts on projecting that. It's not just guys with journalism degrees. It's also groups with quite a bit of health care knowledge like the Kaiser Family Foundation: . . . But, if this more extreme assumption of low enrollment among young adults holds, overall costs in individual market plans would be about 2.4% higher than premium revenues. http://kff.org/health-reform/perspective/the-numbers-behind-young-invincibles-and-the-affordable-care-act/ Keep in mind that this is using a number of 18-34 enrollees that is overtly pessimistic. Not quite the death spiral that had been hyped, eh? Are you just as amused by the doom sayers who refuse to even entertain the idea that this might work? About the only thing you can say for certain right now is that the health system has not yet self destructed, and also not yet become as efficient and awesome as anyone could ever dream. Both those futures exist with non-zero probabilities, but acting like we have any idea which path we are more likely on after 15 days of 2014 makes no sense whatsoever. The latter isn't going to happen under the ACA. No one of any intelligence has even tried to claim otherwise. It's an incremental step . . . and a hell of a compromise at that. I did chuckle at the phrasing of "the health system has not yet self destructed." You should write headlines for certain TV networks. Link to comment
KJ. Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 I get a kick out of when guys with journalism degrees, in absolute terms, say things like "the actuarial death spiral won't transpire for several reasons" and "thus preventing a death spiral" like it's some sort of done deal and they are the leading technical experts on projecting that. It's not just guys with journalism degrees. It's also groups with quite a bit of health care knowledge like the Kaiser Family Foundation: . . . But, if this more extreme assumption of low enrollment among young adults holds, overall costs in individual market plans would be about 2.4% higher than premium revenues. http://kff.org/healt...dable-care-act/ Keep in mind that this is using a number of 18-34 enrollees that is overtly pessimistic. Not quite the death spiral that had been hyped, eh? Are you just as amused by the doom sayers who refuse to even entertain the idea that this might work? About the only thing you can say for certain right now is that the health system has not yet self destructed, and also not yet become as efficient and awesome as anyone could ever dream. Both those futures exist with non-zero probabilities, but acting like we have any idea which path we are more likely on after 15 days of 2014 makes no sense whatsoever. The latter isn't going to happen under the ACA. No one of any intelligence has even tried to claim otherwise. It's an incremental step . . . and a hell of a compromise at that. I did chuckle at the phrasing of "the health system has not yet self destructed." You should write headlines for certain TV networks. I think you're assuming my post was taking some sort of stance on the matter, which it wasn't. Just that it's funny that a journalist is critizing politicans' viewpoints, like anyone should be listening to them in the first place on a subject like that. In all the projections that have been put out there by either the Society of Actuaries or American Academy of Actuaries (you know, the people who actually know what they're talking about when it comes to things like this) I don't think that's ever been a serious concern. Saying "Look guys, the conservatives were WRONG!" is fine and dandy to appeal to a liberal audience, but at the end of the day it's like cheering that you won an argument with a toddler who told you that 2+2=Banana. Link to comment
tschu Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Well you're right...but somebody has to tell the conservatives that they were wrong so that they shut up with the moronic dead-horse-beating of every single aspect of this law. Maybe if they shut up they'll use their time productively and start researching how we'd benefit from single-payer? Ah I can dream 1 Link to comment
HUSKER 37 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 The Obama administration is spending $52M on Obamacare advertisements by former NBA players Magic Johnson and Alonzo Mourning to make an appeal to young people to sign up. In total, the American taxpayer has forked over $684M for Obamacare advertisements. Methinks we could have used those dollars to keep Tricare service centers open for our military, veterans, and retirees. Then again, I realize the importance of leaving a lasting memory of ANY sort of legacy. Why is this not on snoopes yet? Link to comment
carlfense Posted January 17, 2014 Author Share Posted January 17, 2014 Just that it's funny that a journalist is critizing politicans' viewpoints, like anyone should be listening to them in the first place on a subject like that. Who are you saying should be ignored? Politicians or journalists? Or both? We do need to listen to politicians and hold them accountable . . . which is exactly what real journalism seeks to accomplish. In all the projections that have been put out there by either the Society of Actuaries or American Academy of Actuaries (you know, the people who actually know what they're talking about when it comes to things like this) I don't think that's ever been a serious concern. And how often have you seen or heard people talking about a "death spiral"? If you follow the news at all the honest answer would be virtually every day. I think that it's worth the effort to try to combat the disinformation campaign because roughly half of the country believes the BS and they vote. . . . it's like cheering that you won an argument with a toddler who told you that 2+2=Banana. First day on the internet? Link to comment
KJ. Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 And how often have you seen or heard people talking about a "death spiral"? If you follow the news at all the honest answer would be virtually every day. I think that it's worth the effort to try to combat the disinformation campaign because roughly half of the country believes the BS and they vote. 75% of people probably think the term has something to do with death, too, as opposed to how a probability distribution changes as one end is slowly truncated. Combating disinformation is fine and dandy so long as you don't imply "their opinion is wrong, so our opinion is right". Most people probably think those events are complements, and they're not. Especially when it comes to something as pointless as "will the ACA work/fail/etc". . . . it's like cheering that you won an argument with a toddler who told you that 2+2=Banana. First day on the internet? Seventh, still adjusting though. 1 Link to comment
carlfense Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 CBO report I've seen that wildly spun already as "Obamacare kills 2 million jobs!!!!!" Hopefully people are smart enough to read beyond the false headlines Link to comment
rawhide Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 less incentive to keep working. Hmmmm I think there's a sign in Yosemite that is similar to that. Link to comment
carlfense Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 less incentive to keep working. Hmmmm I think there's a sign in Yosemite that is similar to that. Do you think that this must be a bad thing? Link to comment
rawhide Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Who supports these people then? People that can work, able to work, just not making millions rappin'/swingin' on wreckin' balls; Yeah, if they can work they should. Link to comment
carlfense Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 Who supports these people then? People that can work, able to work, just not making millions rappin'/swingin' on wreckin' balls; Yeah, if they can work they should. These people? Link to comment
carlfense Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 John is 59, has had a good career as a mechanical engineer, has saved pretty diligently his whole life, and also has a chronic heart condition. He's got the cash to retire early, but he's not yet eligible for Medicare. So he needs to keep working more than he wants to for a few more years. Or at least he would have if not for the Affordable Care Act, which makes it feasible for him to buy insurance on the private market and get a jump start on his fishing plans. Mary is 27 and pregnant. She'd like to start working part time once the baby is born. But even though her husband's company is doing OK it's too small to provide health insurance to its employees. So the family really needs Mary to put in enough hours to qualify for benefits at her office. That is, they would need her to work full time if not for the Affordable Care Act, whose small-business tax credits are going to let her husband's boss start offering insurance. Those are good stories, right? http://www.slate.com...it_ll_work.html Link to comment
rawhide Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 What are those percentages related to SNAP. My point being that the government has created a whole infrastructure of incentives so people don't have to work. Even when they can. Link to comment
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