Taking a Swipe at the Big Games in 2013

[It'sNotAFakeID]

I compiled (as most of you are familiar with) an end of the season rankings for the 2012-2013 season. Alabama finished on top, much like they did in real life and the rankings did a pretty good job explaining the anomalous results of the 2012-2013 season (for example, Florida struggling against UL-Lafayette or South Carolina struggling against Vanderbilt)

 

Well, let's see how useful doing the same thing will be for this upcoming season. What I'll do is, for the first two weeks, I'll use the information from last season to make my predictions. After the first two games I'll compile the stats again (because I have all the time in the world : ) and use those rankings and stats for the remaining games.

 

Here we go:

 

The BIG games of Week 1

 

Northwestern vs California: Big Ten teams have historically struggled when traveling out to the west coast. I think this time it'll be different. Northwestern has only been improving and they finished last season miles ahead of California. I'd say Northwestern wins the game without much problem, more than likely by 13 points or more.

 

Northwestern 31 California 14

 

Boise State vs Washington: I haven't realized that Sarkisian has struggled in trying to take the next step forward with the Huskies. Boise State, on the other hand, has been a major fixture in the mid-major BCS buster talk. Whereas Boise State appears to be on the decline, Washington is looking ready to take the next step forward. Washington wins this game, but it'll be a close one.

 

Washington 27 Boise State 21

 

LSU vs TCU: One of the neutral site openers that have become the norm, the Tigers take on the Horned Frogs in a game that should be a defensive battle. Quarterback Casey Pachall returns from his time at Dr. Drew's Celebrity Rehab in time to take on an elite Tiger defense. I see LSU falling behind a little in comparison to their previous seasons. Whether TCU improved enough during the offseason to overcome LSU is the major question. I see it happening--TCU pulls the first upset of the year.

 

TCU 21 LSU 17

 

Georgia vs. Clemson: Georgia faces an absolutely brutal opening two games, first traveling to Clemson before facing the Gamecocks. It wouldn't be a surprise to see the Bulldogs winless after two weeks. Clemson didn't exactly finish high in my rankings last season, but I think they were one of the anomalies. Georgia loses a lot of talent on defense. Both offenses should have their ways and this game could be a high scoring affair. But in the end, I think Heisman hopeful Tahj Boyd and Clemson use the home field advantage to take an opening season win from the Bulldogs.

 

Clemson 38 Georgia 34

 

Alabama vs Virginia Tech: In another neutral site battle, defending national champs Alabama take on a Virginia Tech team looking to rebound from a terrible season. Unfortunately, I don't think Virginia Tech improves enough and Alabama doesn't look to have dropped off any the past two seasons. This ends in a blowout.

 

Alabama 35 Virginia Tech 13

 

Penn State vs Syracuse: Penn State really hadn't felt the effects of the sanctions last year, which is why they finished a "successful" season at 8-4 last year. Syracuse also managed a solid season last year, but they lose starting quarterback Ryan Nassib. It could be a dog fight, but it might be painful to watch. In the end, I think Penn State out coaches Syracuse and gets their first victory of what will be a long season.

 

Penn State 23 Syracuse 13

 

Mississippi State vs Oklahoma State: Oklahoma State, the past couple seasons has boasted a tremendous offense. Mississippi State wasn't exactly the epitome of "SEC defense" last season. Oklahoma State is being underrated by most people whereas Mississippi State's conference affiliation has people salivating over their potential. You can squash those expectations. Oklahoma State will roll the Bulldogs.

 

Oklahoma State 41 Mississippi State 24

 

BYU vs Virginia: A successful year last year for BYU and a not so good year for Virginia last year should make this game an easy one to predict. But I don't think that will be the case. Virginia should be vastly improved whereas the Cougars might struggle slightly. A low scoring affair, I think the Cavaliers start the year off on the right foot.

 

BYU 14 Virginia 21

 

Northern Illinois vs Iowa: Everyone here despises the Hawkeyes; they aren't good even though they pretend to be. They failed miserably last year and, if it weren't for the wind, would've lost by 20+ to the Huskers in Iowa City. Northern Illinois returns after a 11-1 season, their only loss to Iowa during the regular season. There wasn't much of a dip in quality of players on the Huskies from last season to this season. They get the win this year, and Iowa looks to next season.

 

Northern Illinois 31 Iowa 16

 

Purdue vs Cincinnati: Cincinnati was a stronger team than most people thought last year. Purdue starts a new era with former Kent State head coach Darrell Hazell (?). Whether that brings new results for the Boilermakers is yet to be seen, and Cincinnati will test the new head coach. It will be interesting to watch, but at the end of the game I think the Bearcats get the win.

 

Purdue 23 Cincinnati 30

[KJ.]

To compare to what BBBBBBBBBXIIIII predicts, here's what Vegas says:

 

Northwestern 32, California 26

Washington 28, Boise 25

LSU 27, TCU 23

Georgia 38, Clemson 36

Alabama 32, Virginia Tech 14

Penn St. 29, Syracuse 22

Oklahoma St. 36, Mississippi St. 24

BYU 27, Virginia 24

Iowa 28, Northern Illinois 25

Cincinnati 30, Purdue 20

[It'sNotAFakeID]

Those are pretty good--hope it turns out like I predicted. Will give the model some credibility.

[It'sNotAFakeID]

Week 2 is here and, using the rankings I compiled from last season, I did pretty good with picking the winners (9/10, 52 points--leading the Huskerboard group). Anyways, here is a breakdown of the results from Week 1:

 

Northwestern 44 @ California 30

 

Predicted Result: Northwestern 31 California 14

Predicted Spread Difference: -3

Predicted Point Total Difference: +29

 

Boise State 6 @ Washington 38

 

Predicted Result: Washington 27 Boise State 21

Predicted Spread Difference: +26

Predicted Point Total Difference: -4

 

TCU 27 vs. LSU 37

 

Predicted Result: TCU 21 LSU 17

Predicted Spread Difference: +6

Predicted Point Total Difference: +26

 

Georgia 35 @ Clemson 38

 

Predicted Result: Clemson 38 Georgia 34

Predicted Spread Difference: -1

Predicted Point Total Difference: +1

 

Alabama 35 vs. Virginia Tech 10

 

Predicted Result: Alabama 35 Virginia Tech 13

Predicted Spread Difference: +3

Predicted Point Total Difference: -3

 

Penn State 23 vs. Syracuse 17

 

Predicted Result: Penn State 23 Syracuse 13

Predicted Spread Difference: -4

Predicted Point Total Difference: +4

 

Mississippi State 3 @ Oklahoma State 21

 

Predicted Result: Oklahoma State 41 Mississippi State 24

Predicted Spread Difference: +1

Predicted Point Total Difference: -41

 

BYU 16 @ Virginia 19

 

Predicted Result: Virginia 21 BYU 14

Predicted Spread Difference: -4

Predicted Point Total Difference: 0

 

Northern Illinois 30 @ Iowa 27

 

Predicted Result: Northern Illinois 31 Iowa 16

Predicted Spread Difference: -12

Predicted Point Total Difference: +10

 

Purdue 7 @ Cincinnati 40

 

Predicted Result: Cincinnati 30 Purdue 20

Predicted Spread Difference: +23

Predicted Point Total Difference: -3

 

TOTAL

 

Predicted Spread Difference: +35

Predicted Point Total Difference: +19

 

Not too bad, in my estimation. I miss some games wildly, but so did Vegas. I also called some upsets that Vegas didn't call.

[It'sNotAFakeID]

The BIG Games of Week 2

 

#14 Notre Dame (1-0) @ #17 Michigan (1-0): Both teams are coming off easy wins against Temple and Central Michigan, respectively. At my end of the year college rankings, Michigan finished #4, whereas Notre Dame finished #11. Not a big disparity between those teams and neither team looks to have fallen off any from last season. Both these teams are stylistically similar, they both like to ground and pound the ball. Both defenses are stingy, but Notre Dame on average forces more turnovers than Michigan. However, Michigan on average completes bigger pass plays than Notre Dame. That's where this game will be decided. Will Notre Dame force interceptions on the deep ball that Gardner is going to eventually throw? Or will Michigan convert those long pass plays?

 

GameDay picked another great game to visit.

 

Notre Dame 21 Michigan 27

 

#15 Texas (1-0) @ Brigham Young (0-1): For a while against New Mexico State, Texas looked incredibly anemic. Then they hit their stride and eventually pulled away. BYU lost a hard fought battle against Virginia. Defensively, both teams looked very good. BYU finished #23 in the rankings last season and Texas finished #29. BYU looks like they may have fallen off a little bit, while Texas looks pretty good. I think the home crowd keeps the Cougars tight with the Longhorns for a half and maybe half of the third quarter, before Bevo [unfortunately] pulls away.

 

Texas 28 BYU 19

 

Syracuse (0-1) @ #22 Northwestern (1-0) Pat Fitzgerald accomplished a rarity last week, taking a B1G team into Pac 12 territory and winning a thriller. Next up for the Wildcats is a Syracuse team that looked okay against Penn State. Northwestern finished #42 in my rankings last year and looks better; Syracuse finished #65 in my rankings last year and looks to have fallen off slightly--losing Nassib really hurts the Orange. Without a quarterback to make the Wildcats less than stellar pass defense pay, Syracuse doesn't stand much of a chance of pulling the upset in Evanston.

 

Syracuse 23 Northwestern 38

 

#6 South Carolina (1-0) @ #5 Georgia (0-1): The Gamecock's D was good, but not in the way expected by everyone and their grandmothers. Their offensive line looked really good against North Carolina. Georgia lost a tough contest against a Clemson team that will be a contender come November. With a lot of talent to replace on defense, this one could be a tough one for the Bulldogs to win. South Carolina finished #32 last year and has gotten better. Georgia finished #3 last year and has fallen off a little bit. An improved Gamecock secondary will give Aaron Murray and his slightly depleted WR group a tough test, and it will be up to Gurshall to help open up the passing lanes. It's tough to imagine Georgia starting the year 0-2.

 

South Carolina 26 Georgia 31

 

Duke (1-0) @ Memphis (0-0): Had to do a little extra research on these two teams before I could even hope to make a sound prediction. Duke finished #69 last year in my rankings and with a win figures to be at least the same. Memphis finished #90, and without a game it's hard to make a judgment as to where they are now. Duke should win this one going away, but then again, this is such a obscure game that nothing would surprise me.

 

Duke 37 Memphis 17

 

Utah State (0-1) @ Air Force (1-0): Again with the obscure match up. Utah State lost a tight battle with in-state rival Utah and Air Force beat somebody. Last year, Utah State finished #14 in my ranks, whereas Air Force finished #70. I don't think Utah State is playing up to that caliber and Air Force is probably a little better. A tough, close game. In the end, Chuckie Keaton will make more plays than the Air Force rushing attack.

 

Utah State 34 Air Force 27

 

#3 Oregon (1-0) @ Virginia (1-0): On paper, this should be a blow out. Oregon should out class Virginia with their athleticism. Oregon was #5 last year and hasn't slowed down at all. Virginia was #101 and while they may have improved from last year, it's not going to be enough to beat the Ducks. Oregon won't score as much as they usually do, but they'll score enough.

 

Oregon 48 Virginia 20

 

#10 Florida (1-0) @ Miami [FL] (1-0): The potential upset game of the week, Florida travels to Miami to take on the Hurricanes. Florida looked it's usual self, dominating defense but anemic offense against Toledo. Miami did what they had to do against Florida Atlantic. Florida finished #13 in my rankings last season, and is probably right there or a little lower. Miami finished #84 in my rankings last season and is definitely a much better team than that. Watch out, this one could get tense, especially if the Hurricane offense is able to put up some points against the Gators.

 

Florida 24 Miami 20

 

Cincinnati (1-0) @ Illinois (1-0): Another B1G steps up to take on the Bearcats, will the outcome be the same? Signs point to yes, Cincinnati looked really good under Tommy Tuberville and Illinois had their hands full with Southern Illinois. The gap between these two teams is too big for the home field to help Illinois.

 

Cincinnati 34 Illinois 16

 

Houston (1-0) @ Temple (0-1): Don't let the record fool you, Temple played pretty well against Notre Dame, and Houston may not be the better team here just because they field the better record. Houston is #62 and is probably no worse than #70 nor better than #55. Temple is #99 and with their experience against Notre Dame should be around #80 if I compiled the similar stats. It's going to be an interesting match up. But I think Houston will manage the game enough to get the win.

 

Houston 29 Temple 26 [OT]

[killer cacti]

Georgia 35 @ Clemson 38

 

Predicted Result: Clemson 38 Georgia 34

Predicted Spread Difference: -1

Predicted Point Total Difference: +1

Nice!

[It'sNotAFakeID]

The BIG Games Week 3

 

#20 Wisconsin @ Arizona State: Nobody has scored on Wisconsin this year, but it would be far more impressive if the Badgers could hold the Sun Devils to no points than the fact that they held Massachusetts and Tennessee Tech off the board, combined. It looks like Gary Andersen might be the real deal and a coach that Badgers fans will like. He's kept a lot of the Wisconsin elements in place and the Badgers could be looking at a 4th consecutive Big Ten championship if they keep this up. However, I think the Sun Devils will expose Wisconsin a little bit. The Big Ten historically struggles when traveling out west.

 

Wisconsin 26 Arizona State 19

 

#25 Ole Miss @ Texas: Holy crap, Texas delightfully looked TERRIBLE against BYU last week. Ole Miss appears to be the better team and they'll probably play like it in Austin, causing Longhorn fans to leave early. But this is one of those trap games for you College Pick'em players--Texas will have a lot to prove and Ole Miss has been given the title of being the surprise team this year. What better way to assert yourself back into the national picture by looking good against a ranked team?

 

Ole Miss 28 Texas 33

 

Vanderbilt @ #13 South Carolina : Will Jadeveon Clowney not be tired this week and actually play like he's been hyped up to play? Clowney doesn't have to play well this week, he's not going against an elite offensive line. But Vanderbilt will ask some questions of South Carolina. The home crowd will be enough for the Gamecocks this time.

 

Vanderbilt 17 South Carolina 31

 

Mississippi State @ Auburn : Eh, neither team figures to be impressive this year. Auburn has looked better, but Mississippi State has played the harder schedule. I might as well just give this game to Auburn because of the home field. But I won't, because Auburn will be that bad again this year.

 

Mississippi State 31 Auburn 20

 

Central Florida @ Penn State : These two teams are pretty even, and it is good to see Penn State playing well again, but this will be there toughest test to date. Hackenberg will have to continue his level of play, and I think Penn State manages to just scrap by the Knights.

 

Central Florida 23 Penn State 27

 

Iowa @ Iowa State : Ugh, just give me the HIV now. I don't know who's the better team in this match up and quite frankly, I don't care. Iowa State struggled against Northern Iowa, Iowa struggled against Missouri State. I think Iowa State wins, but really this game could end 3-3 in 17OT.

 

Iowa 16 Iowa State 21

 

#1 Alabama @ #6 Texas A&M: The most hyped game of the year since the Aggies shocked the Tide in Tuscaloosa. Saban is said to be really good in revenge games, but we'll see if the young Tide offensive line can mount an offense against a struggling front seven of Texas A&M. This game will come down to if Manziel can generate enough of an offense against Alabama's always stingy defense. I think he does. But Alabama's offense comes alive against a not very good Aggie defense. Bama wins, thankfully.

 

Alabama 34 Texas A&M 30

 

Tennessee @ #2 Oregon: Bama's win means that Oregon will have to stay at number despite throttling Tennessee. The Ducks made easy and quick work of the Cavaliers and I'm not sure Tennessee is that much better.

 

Tennessee 23 Oregon 48

 

#7 Louisville @ Kentucky: Teddy Bridgewater is winning the Heisman this year. He has looked like a player determined to take it all and take his team all the way to the title. Kentucky sucks, we all know that.

 

Louisville 45 Kentucky 17

 

#16 UCLA @ #23 Nebraska: A lot is riding on this game for Nebraska. Lose, and there is no reason to be placed in the Top 25 until November. Win and they'll more than likely be a Top 10 team heading into November. Brett Hundley is an amazing quarterback, but I don't think he has the athleticism to maneuver around the pocket like Brett Smith. Nebraska will get to him, probably twice. The Husker defense is young, and it will show at times during the game. But the UCLA defense is also young, and it will show at times during the game. The game will come down to turnovers, who forces more and who makes the most out of their turnovers. I'll give the nod to Nebraska and that will be enough for the Huskers to make a statement come Saturday.

 

UCLA 23 Nebraska 34

[AgMarauder04]

Bama wins, thankfully

 

I THOUGHT WE WERE FRIENDS!!!!

[It'sNotAFakeID]

Bama wins, thankfully

 

I THOUGHT WE WERE FRIENDS!!!!

 

No.

[AgMarauder04]

I thought Huskere were nice

[Notre Dame Joe]

I think Shaggy just melted down. But Huskerboard is still open for business?

[KJ.]

Did this stop? How are we supposed to analyze your sum of non-squared errors stat if you don't post picks?

[Mavric]

Did this stop? How are we supposed to analyze your sum of non-squared errors stat if you don't post picks?

Maybe there aren't any "big games" today?

[ObamaRocks91]

Did this stop? How are we supposed to analyze your sum of non-squared errors stat if you don't post picks?

 

lol