Relative Talent on Husker's Schedule (graphs, graphs, and more graphs)

[Kiyoat Husker]

I have created a spreadsheet with Nebraska and all the teams on our 2015 Schedule. I have also generated some graphs based on the data, hoping to quantify how relatively talented our opponents are.

 

I looked at recruiting rankings from Scout, Rivals, and 247Sports, and averaged the rankings for each year. Then I created a 4-year recruiting average to establish current Talent on the roster.

 

I looked at final season poll rankings on the AP, Coaches, and CCR128 polls. I added the Congrove Computer Rankings (CCR128) in order to get rankings on all teams, and the top 25 rankings match up pretty well, too, so it is a 3-way average.

 

I know these numbers, especially the recruiting rankings are highly subjective, and this is not a highly scientific published study. The purpose of this thread is not to start one more arguement about how much recruiting really matters, or how star ratings are junk science, etc. So please do not bring that crap in here.

 

I just wanted to understand our opponents better from a recent history, and talent perspective. Hopefully you guys will get something out of it.

 

I'll try to post these graphs in separate posts, to break up the post size. Also please don't quote the images, as I think they are relatively large.

 

[Kiyoat Husker]

Here is the Relative talent for our 4 toughest opponents:

 

[Kiyoat Husker]

My quick takes:

 

Miami is in a downturn in talent (by Miami standards) but is still far more talented than Nebraska. Al Golden should have this team competing at a higher level not sure if he will, though.

 

Michigan State is on a gradual upswing in roster talent, but is currently right on-par with Nebraska. The difference is coaching stability, defense, and excelent QB play.

 

Wisconsin is Wisconsin. Their talent is lower, but they consistently over-perform. System stability?

 

BYU? Holy crap. There must be some kind of Mormon black magic that is preventing Bronco from leaving. Simply amazing what they have consistently done with less talent.

[Kiyoat Husker]

Here are Nebraska's Middle of the road teams:

 

[Kiyoat Husker]

My takes:

 

Rutgers could be better than they are. We should still beat them.

 

Iowa's talent is at a decade low. Maybe two decades. Has Ferrents just given up? Their defense is still decent, but I wonder how long they can keep it up.

 

Northwestern has been sneaky good in recruiting. On a serious upswing there. We have learned to never underestimate them, and now there is just one more reason. If they spent some money on facilities, Coach Fitz could build something special there. I don't think they will, though.

 

Minnesota. Just bad talent-wise. Kill is an amazing coach, but I think the bubble will burst this year with results on-field. He needs to recruit better.

[Kiyoat Husker]

Nebraka's worst teams on schedule:

 

[Kiyoat Husker]

My takes:

 

Illinois and Purdue had decent talent on their rosters just 6 to 10 years ago. Both are in a long free-fall, and need some better recruiting from staffs. They both seem to have recruiting potential, but are very bad right now.

 

Southern Miss also was relatively talented about 5 years ago, but no longer. Not a bright future, and we are catching them at the right time.

 

Southern Alabama is better on talent, I think, than this graph shows due to transfers. I think they have a bright future, but obviously seriously overmatched by Nebraska.

[Kiyoat Husker]

A closer look at Tomorrow's opponent:

 

[knapplc]

The final number is "where they currently are" relative to class recruiting rankings and last year's final poll positions?

[Kiyoat Husker]

My take on Southern Miss.

 

Jeff Bower and Larry Fedora seem to have both recruited well, and over-utilized their talent. Johnson and Monken have been the opposite. There seems to have been a gradual drop in recruiting begining in the last half of the Fedora Era, so maybe he got a little lazy in that department towards the end. The drop has been stunning, though. Monken has a tough job ahead, but he needs to at least start getting results somewhere near the talent level. IMO

[Kiyoat Husker]

The final number is "where they currently are" relative to class recruiting rankings and last year's final poll positions?

yes. There is no 2015 number for poll position, but the 2015 recruiting class obviously affects our 2015 season's talent.

 

I had considered averaging 4.5 years instead of 4 years, but that would have been difficult to calculate with excel. Not impossible.

[Red Five]

I looked at recruiting rankings from Scout, Rivals, and 247Sports, and averaged the rankings for each year. Then I created a 4-year recruiting average to establish current Talent on the roster.

 

 

Thanks for the work.

 

You can just use the 247 Composite Rankings as the take into account Rivals, Scout, 247, and ESPN. That would take out an extra few steps of work.

 

And chances are the 247 Rank you grabbed is probably already the composite as I think that is what they use to rank teams. Weighting the 247 Composite with the Scout and Rivals would add extra weight to them. Probably doesn't change things to much, but just FYI.

[Kiyoat Husker]

 

I looked at recruiting rankings from Scout, Rivals, and 247Sports, and averaged the rankings for each year. Then I created a 4-year recruiting average to establish current Talent on the roster.

 

 

Thanks for the work.

 

You can just use the 247 Composite Rankings as the take into account Rivals, Scout, 247, and ESPN. That would take out an extra few steps of work.

 

And chances are the 247 Rank you grabbed is probably already the composite as I think that is what they use to rank teams. Weighting the 247 Composite with the Scout and Rivals would add extra weight to them. Probably doesn't change things to much, but just FYI.

 

Thanks! yes it would have taken a lot of work out, but now that the spreadsheet is done, oh well. I was going to use ESPN, but couldn't find numbers all the way back to 2002, like the other polls.

 

I also included Oregon State in the spreadsheet, for my own curiosity. If you guys want to see similar data on other teams, it would be a snap now that the spreadsheet is set up.

[Dagerow]

Thanks OP. Very useful.

[BigRedBuster]

 

I looked at recruiting rankings from Scout, Rivals, and 247Sports, and averaged the rankings for each year. Then I created a 4-year recruiting average to establish current Talent on the roster.

 

 

Thanks for the work.

 

You can just use the 247 Composite Rankings as the take into account Rivals, Scout, 247, and ESPN. That would take out an extra few steps of work.

 

And chances are the 247 Rank you grabbed is probably already the composite as I think that is what they use to rank teams. Weighting the 247 Composite with the Scout and Rivals would add extra weight to them. Probably doesn't change things to much, but just FYI.

 

I always thought 247 uses their own rankings and no the composite for the team rankings.