Wistrom Disciple

My hunch would be no, but maybe they would convince him to try a Taysom Hill role where he's placed all over the field and only QB part time.

Should Luke not get an opportunity he wants and decides that he doesn't want to play at Northern Colorado with his Dad, do we open the door for him to return?

Thank you! Great insights

@Mavric any ulterior motives for the shuffle beyond our desire to get Iowa on Black Friday again? Also, any rumors on opponent swaps or just rearranging dates?

I know how probabilities work, it was meant to lighten the chat with Mav by playing devils advocate with the pure numbers. The point was that an average of more than 3 yards per attempt was statistically enough for a first down, no outside factors or other strategic considerations. As for Mills' impact... the three games we got him most involved in 2020 were two wins and the NW loss. Although rushing against NW produced meh results, he was a positive factor in the passing game. Northwestern also happened to turn out to be a top five defense in the country so, with that consideration, not bad. His injuries were certainly a factor throughout the year but when he was given a good amount of work, positive results tended to follow. Personally, it was more concerning that the coaches failed to use him more. For example, take the Minnesota game when 1/3 of their team was out and they had an awful defense. Instead of a healthy dose of Mills/Scott/Johnson (natural RBs), we tried to force passes and handed the ball to Wandale eight times. Yes, Wandale had one great 47 yard run. But those other seven attempts? 2 total yards. I really hope that game was the turning point for Scott to realize he needed to rely on Lubick and the staff more because that was a terrible performance offensively. I think we're in for a big step forward next year.

Please pass that note along to the coaches. Those screen passes sure seemed to work out well instead ... Oh I understand how averages work and also how the math checks out. [10 yards to get a first down, four plays to get a first down. Averaging three-plus yards each play will statistically get you a first down every time]. I know what you're getting at... but of all the problems with our offense this year, Mills' play would be one of the least concerning issues. Considering all the hoopla surrounding the QB play, merry-go-round at receivers, penalties, inconsistent blocking, the early season snapping issues and of course, I'd be remiss to ignore the Wandale touch quota as well. Mills doesn't crack the top five of the headaches. TLDR; Mills did a decent job for us this year and was a solid contributor.

I can appreciate that. I do think the younger players have higher ceilings. I agree, must also consider the defenses Stepp was facing in the Pac-12. Really hoping a return to the Midwest will bring out his best talents. Expectations play a part. He was never intended to be a homerun back and regrettably, the coaches rarely asked him to be a workhorse back for us (15+ carries). So I'm confused as to what you're expecting from him in Frost's strategy. And yes, three-plus yards a play will get you a first down over four plays. Not pretty but the math checks out.

I agree chunk plays were needed but Mills wasn't expected to be that kind of back. His even his JUCO experience indicated that this plodding style of play was how he plays so I'm not sure what others were expecting. It was much more akin to Frank Gore than it was ever supposed to be Derrick Henry. Therefore, I thought Mills did a solid job based on what was expected from him. Not a great level but a back who could be fed the ball and help the offense control the game. @Mavric pointed out some good stats and I can see the argument there. Then again, 3+ yards every play gets you a first down each drive and we often abandoned RB runs for QB scrambles or screen passes which often made first downs even more elusive. I am curious about what makes you think the backs we have now are better fits... Rahmir Johnson - 30 career carries for 94 yards (3.24 YPC) Marvin Scott - 24 carries for 62 yards (2.6 YPC) Ronald Thompkins - 5 carries for 24 yards (4.8 YPC) **Markese Stepp - 100 carries at USC for 505 yards (5.05 YPC) - did not face a Top 60 defense this past season and only averaged 3.7 YPC I am optimistic that these guys will prove to be valuable players for us in the future but nothing so far has proven that they are better players than Mills.

Good point, and yes YPC isn't the only indication of a good or bad player. The stats were intended to show that he was not "mediocre to bad" as a skewed statistic was initially stated. I was trying to make a point that stats can be twisted to fit a narrative if desired. I will disagree with the boom or bust assessment. Might just be semantics but I consider a bust to be a player who severely dropped below the average. Since Mills only had three games under 3.0 yards/carry, I thought he was decent for us. Blocking was certainly suspect during his two years but I thought he did a solid job overall. Thank you for the insights, pretty interesting stuff! As for the quoted portion above, I don't believe anyone had the expectation for Mills to be a home-run type of back when we got him. Maybe it's just revisionist history on my end, I was under the impression that he would be a workhorse back similar to how he was used at JUCO. The intention being to have him eat up a handful of yards and help us control the clock/tempo. Johnson & Morrsion would be our speed backs with Mills as the power/short yardage guy.

To be fair, I think the point @CFHusker tried to make was that you shouldn't subjectively jump to a conclusion by removing the best or worst games as it skews the stats towards one side or the other. For instance, pulling out the three best games (1/6 of his career games for us) indicates Mills is a 3.71 YPC back. On the other end, pulling out the three worst games would push his average to 5.42 YPC. Instead, take an objective approach in considering the totality of his career as the means for judging whether the player is good or bad. In this case, 1,141 yards over 227 carries = 5.03 YPC career average indicate that Mills was a solid player for us (when healthy) even though he did not produce a ton of highlight plays or games. Hopefully we can once again have a dominant running game with a feature back coming soon.

I think we simply have different expectations of what the RB position is supposed to do in the offense. My impression from your answers is that you're expecting tons of yards and explosive plays from the position which is great when it happens. Typically these backs have a speed element which was not a strong attribute for Mills. However, we also need backs to grind out first downs and control the clock and tempo. Mills was exceptional at this when he was healthy. The stats you're pointing out and removing the outliers from are not actually that bad for a Big Ten runningback as the Big Ten tends to have better defenses than most of college football. @CFHuskeris correct that you can't pull out the best games and make the jump to a conclusion. You wouldn't want me to flip the argument and remove the games against the best defenses as that would pad his stats in my favor. @ZRod, my thoughts exactly. The Rutgers game was the game you're thinking of here. Mills had a big run to the 2 yard line and then was subbed out. Took us four tries but Wandale got in on fourth down from the one.

Thank you for the stats, they don't scream dominant but it does point out consistency. I'm not sure what sort of stats you're expecting but a RB average over 4.5 yards per carry on the season is pretty solid... especially when the back is more power than speed. Mills was a better short yardage back than Wandale. I went back through the six games Mills played, he had three TDs from inside the five on his six chances. Two of the three non-scoring chances were due to NW and OSU blowing up the play for a one and two yard loss. He also had a three yard gain at Purdue to take us from the 4 to the 1-yard line before Adrian scored the next play. Whereas Wandale scored one TD inside the five on his eight chances during the season. It took until the final game of the season to make it work and Wandale got a pretty big knock from a defender as he scored. Fair point. I would still prefer to have the bigger back (and actual RB) take the carries versus the small WR. The hesitancy to use Thompkins & Johnson all year is concerning.

As a previous poster pointed out though, Wandale routinely fell after first contact wherever he was at on the field. That is especially troublesome near the goaline where contact is inevitable. Unfortunately, the staff regularly tried to have Wandale be a power back in those short yardage or goal to go situations which almost always failed. I think most would agree that given how dominant Mills had been running the few games he was healthy, it was a head scratcher that we didn't give him the ball more often inside the five. Also a wonder how little the coaches thought about the other backs by only giving a combined 37 carries to Scott, Johnson & Thompkins on the year (hard to develop depth without giving more opportunities). I'd like to believe this will improve now that the coaches don't have to worry about keeping Wandale's dad & trainer happy with the touch quota.

Arrowhead? If you're referring to Solider Field, it's pretty solid. I'm pretty sure that the field stays in good shape because it isn't used after Week 17 except for once or twice a decade

Without starting up another dialogue on snapping, they made some adjustments after the Iowa game and snapping didn't appear to be an issue the rest of the season. Given that the top two backups at center left this offseason, Jurgens will be the starter. Any groaning over that will fall on deaf ears until the season starts.

Forgot Austin Allen who was pretty solid for us when healthy this season. Vokolek showed some promise too. Could be a formidable group next year... Manning (6'4) Betts (6'2) Toure (6'3) Allen (6'8) Vokolek (6'6) Mix in: Fidone (6'5) Hickman (6'6) Martin (6'1) Grimes (6'3) Hardy (6'3) Neville (6'4) Speedy slot guys: Nixon (5'11) Houston (6'0) Brown (5'11) Nance (6'0) Obviously a lot to prove but they should at least be bigger targets for Adrian and they should have more success blocking on the perimeter again based on size alone. Hopefully the effort to block will match.

Anybody watching the flight tracker out of Bozeman to see if there's fire to this smoke?

Agreed, hopefully he gets the space he needs to operate. Hoping for the best but I'm looking forward to seeing our offense evolve now with a larger receiving core. Good points @uberism, I thought that was the case too but hadn't looked deeper into it. Hopefull the bigger receivers will help alleviate some of that problem.

Tyreek Hill has elite level speed to outrun a secondary and get open quite often as a receiver. Wandale does not. Therefore, the coaches tried to get him the ball however they could within the offense. This unfortunately did lead to poor decisions to think he had the running abilities of a Darren Sproles or Danny Woodhead. I agree that it was a bad idea to think the small guy could handle running the ball so often. They did try Wandale on the perimeter but he often failed to get separation or get first downs. If you're not the fastest guy on the field at that size, you better be able to be shifty and elusive consistently. Again, Wandale is a good player but he did not prove that he could be that kind of special player unless there were other studs in the offense to take attention and heat off of him.

@Hilltop's response above was right in line with what I was thinking about Martinez. He was throwing to Stanley Morgan, JD and had Ozigbo in the backfield along with a veteran o-line his first year. 2019 he had the mighty mites for receivers after an expected starter at receiver and his backup (also among the biggest receivers in the program at that time) were kicked off the team before the season. This past year he consistently had walk-ons at the receiver spots who more or less became space fillers and blockers. Yes, he's made some bad plays and missed on some passes but given the revolving door at receiver he's had, I don't blame Adrian too much. In regards to Wandale... if you are to be great at 5'8, you must be lightning fast or deceptively elusive in order to excel. WR had flashes of being elusive but never seemed to show elite-level speed or quickness to out run a defense. Add in the cloud of needing touch quotas to keep his trainer & Dad happy and we get WR in the runningback more often than anyone would like. I recall a few times he appeared open downfield and Luke & Adrian couldn't get him the ball but I also remember several other times a play would be designed specifically for WR on a screen or slant and he would rarely help us move the chains. He is a good player but did little to prove that he would become an all-conference player for us based on his talent alone. I feel the only way he would have reached that level is if we had a bunch of other threats around him and the defense essentially slacked off WR which would allow him to be elusive despite his B+/A- speed.

The more I look at it, the more I think Robinson leaving will end up being a blessing in disguise. Good player, nice kid. Limited our offense in requiring a touch quota to keep his dad and trainer happy. Now with a receiving core averaging 6’2, our downfield threats should be much more impressive to opposing defenses.

Your figures are presumably correct but I think the point was that fans complained about Pelini struggling on the recruiting trail during his final few years and it turned out that Pelini was an excellent talent evaluator regardless of stars/ratings. Whereas Riley may have been great at the stars/ratings but was poor in the talent evaluation of players. You also cannot summarize a coach simply by his recruiting ranking. Pelini had a dark cloud from the NU Administration (specifically Perlman & Eichorst) that was used to hurt our recruiting efforts for several years. Despite that, he brought in a lot of talent and coached them up well to win consistently. Frost has been restocking the talent in the program which has taken longer than any of us had hope but I believe is improving and will hopefully show next season.

Well Kentucky is bringing in the QB coach from the LA Rams as their new OC so that probably drew some of the attention. But it is probably true that the trainer and family had been putting pressure (in some capacity) on him to return closer to home. I recall those two being particularly involved in his initial recruitment a few years ago that seemed to be a little excessive which was why Frost was ready to walk away after his initial commitment to Kentucky.

Agreed in hindsight, but he was building the program so I can't fault him for wanting to preserve their redshirts. I also have to wonder how much different the outcome would have been. Probably still get smoked but could've been a 1-2 score loss instead of a whooping. They left after their junior years because of Mike Riley and the defensive guys he brought on. I firmly believe they would have been back for their senior years if Bo and Kaz would have stayed. Would've been a special group too... seniors Armstrong, Westerkamp, Collins, Valentine, Newby, Reilly & Gerry.

No, it was Farniok. (10:40 in video). Whoever his replacement is, I expect to be a lateral move or improvement in talent at the spot. Farniok, like Kade Warner & Dismuke, may be great leaders and team guys but were limited in talent unfortunately.