Mizzou Analysis of NE

[TrumanBD]

Below is some analysis of Nebraska from a Mizzou columnist. I am curious as to what you guys think of his analysis:

 

http://blogs.columbiatribune.com/football/

 

 

Inside the Huskers' Numbers

 

It’s time to dig into the stats and get familiar with the Nebraska Cornhuskers, as always with the help of cfbstats.com. On paper, the Huskers look much like Missouri — all offense, not much D. Here’s a closer look.

 

RUSHING OFFENSE

The Huskers aren’t the smashmouth option Huskers of old, but neither are they the 2005 Huskers that ranked among the least productive running teams in the country. Featured I-back Marlon Lucky — the I-back title is about all Bill Callahan kept intact from the Osborne/Solich offense — leads the Big 12 in rushing attempts and rushing average, posting 113 yards per game. At 6-foot, 210 pounds, Lucky’s a workhorse back for a pro-style offense.

 

“They run three running plays and run them really well,” Missouri nose tackle Lorenzo Williams said.

 

Here’s how Lucky has produced this season:

vs. Nevada: 30 carries-223 yards-3 TDs

at Wake Forest: 24-90-1

vs. USC: 17-33-0

vs. Ball State: 21-102-1

vs. Iowa State: 16-107-1

 

As you can see, almost half his yardage came in the season opener. Those numbers don’t reflect his value in the passing game, which we’ll get to later.

 

Lucky run behinds an offensive line that’s about the standard size for a Big 12 front five with the starters averaging almost 6-foot-5 and 310 pounds. Left guard Jacob Hickman is the least experienced of the bunch having replaced injured Andy Christensen two weeks ago.

 

The Huskers have run the ball an equal number of times in the first half and second half (99 each) but have been more effective after halftime, averaging 4.8 yards per carry compared to 3.3 in the first half. NU runs the ball on first down only about 55 percent of the time and averages about 4.0 yards per carry on first down. The Huskers have been most effective running in the third quarter, averaging almost 7 yards a pop.

 

 

PASSING OFFENSE

Here’s where the Huskers have gotten explosive, thanks mostly to the NFL arm of senior quarterback Sam Keller. The transfer from Arizona State has completed 65 percent of his passes and averages 299 passing yards per game, though his touchdown-to-interception ratio is nothing spectacular at 9-to-7. His passer rating (141.9) ranks fifth among starting QBs in the Big 12, which is pretty good company considering the corps of passers in the conference.

 

Here’s how Keller has done in each game this season:

vs. Nevada: 14 of 25-1 INT-193 yards-1 TD, 126.0 rating

at Wake Forest: 24-41-2-258-1, 109.7

vs. USC: 36-54-2-389-2, 132.0

vs. Ball State: 29-37-1-438-3, 199.2

vs. Iowa State: 18-29-1-219-2, 146.4

 

If you watched the USC bludgeoning, you’ll remember Keller was under a fierce pass-rush all night while the Huskers played catch-up from the second quarter on. Most of his yardage came in the second half when the Trojans started pulling their starters. The next week, though, Keller was forced to pass the Huskers back into the Ball State game, and he answered with a school-record yardage total. If he keeps his completion percentage up, he’ll set NU’s single-season record, which stands at 63.0 percent. At 6-4, 230, Keller looks like an NFL quarterback, though he throws with an unorthodox delivery, somewhat similar to San Diego Chargers QB Philip Rivers. Here’s the most impressive split stat for Keller: His best completion percentage (68.8) and quarterback rating (155.5) both come in the fourth quarter.

 

Consider Nebraska’s receiver corps Missouri Lite. In NU’s five games, Keller has distributed the ball to 10, seven, nine, eight and seven different receivers. Four different Huskers have led the team in receiving yards in the five games. Wideout Maurice Purify is probably the most gifted of the bunch, while Terrence Nunn is the most experienced and reliable. Nate Swift, Todd Peterson and Frantz Hardy have been productive backups, while tight end Sean Hill and fullback Thomas Lawson have combined for five touchdown catches. The Huskers might not spread the field quite like Missouri, but they spread the passes around much like the Tigers.

 

Lucky is especially vital to the passing game. He leads the Huskers with 28 receptions. Against Ball State, he posted more (11) than any Husker has had in a game this season. He’s close to surpassing last year’s reception total (32), which ranked third in the Big 12 among running backs behind Texas Tech’s Shannon Woods and Husker teammate Brandon Jackson.

 

“When he leaves the backfield, he ain’t leaving for no reason,” MU linebacker Sean Weatherspoon said. “Whenever he leaves, the defensive line has to be aware of where he is because on the screens, he tries to act like he’s avoiding you.”

 

 

 

 

 

 

University of Nebraska photo

Huskers DE Zach Potter

 

 

 

 

RUSHING DEFENSE

The Huskers’ red and white uniforms might still have a touch of garnet and gold from the thumping USC applied three weeks ago. The Huskers’ D ranks last in the Big 12 against the run, thanks especially to USC’s 313-yard day in Lincoln. Remove that game from the ledger, though, and Nebraska’s 159-yard run D average would still rank 10th in the conference. Ball State averaged 5 yards a pop against the Huskers, while Wake Forest and Iowa State logged 50 runs apiece, though with less success.

 

Opponents have been especially productive on first down, averaging 5.5 yards a carry, and in the third quarter, averaging 5.7 yards a carry. Here’s what each opponent’s feature backs have done against the Huskers:

Brandon Fragger, Nevada: 7 carries-16 yards-0 TDs

Micah Andrews, Wake Forest: 14-49-0

Josh Adams, Wake Forest: 8-31-0

Stafon Johnson, USC: 11-144, 1

C.J. Gable, USC: 4-69

Chauncey Washington, USC: 12-43

MiQuale Lewis, Ball State: 19-122-1

Jason Scales, Iowa State: 31-115-2

 

It should be noted that the Cyclones played without leading rusher J.J. Bass, the fifth-leading rusher in the Big 12. Scales is a career backup who had never posted more than 67 yards in a game.

 

 

PASSING DEFENSE

The skies were fairly clear until Ball State came to Lincoln. BSU quarterback Nate Davis scorched the Blackshirts for 422 yards and three touchdowns, completing 60 percent of his passes and posting an individual game rating of 161.3. Against Nebraska, USC’s Heisman candidate John David Booty had the least prolific game of his career as a starter, but he didn’t need to throw much with all those yards coming from the running backs.

 

Here’s what each opponent’s quarterback has done against the Huskers:

Nick Graziano, Nevada: 8-24-1-109-0, 63.2

Brett Hodges, Wake Forest: 12-24-2-140-0, 82.3

Booty, USC: 19-30-0-144-2, 1125.7

Davis, Ball State: 26-43-1-422-3, 161.3

Bret Meyer, Iowa State: 26-51-3-281-0, 85.5

 

 

Defensive statistics can be misleading, but the Huskers rank 10th and 11th in the Big 12 in tackles for loss and sacks, respectively. They hadn’t registered double-digit sacks until last week’s game against Iowa State when they posted three. To the Huskers’ credit, they’ve played against a mobile quarterback every week other than the USC game.

 

On other note: Much has been made lately of Nebraska playing a three-man front against Missouri last year with seldom-used linebacker Major Culbert assigned to “spy” on QB Chase Daniel for most of the game. The latter is true, but the three-man front talk is slightly overstated, so says Missouri offensive coordinator Dave Christensen.

 

“Not really. They played a little bit of three-man at the end of the game, which they blitzed out of,” Christensen said. “But they mostly played Cover 4, sat on us and tried to jump our shorter, underneath routes.”

[HuskerfaninOkieland]

Seems fairly accurate.

[DJR313]

Good assessment of the team at this point. Still lots of unknown variables.

[melscott62]

while Terrence Nunn is the most experienced and reliable

 

[Blackshirt316]

Most of that is accurate and rather good info, but it's more like Missouri is Nebraska Lite as far as the receiving corps as NU has actually done well against proven talent, Missouri has yet to do so.

 

Nate Swift is easily the best wide out on the team and Purify is BY FAR the most physically talented. As far as reliability I'd go Swift, Peterson, Purify, Hill, Nunn, Lucky... and than about 10 players later we hit Hardy.

[BIGREDIOWAN]

He has a pretty accurate assesment of our team there. I also think Swift is the most reliable receiver we have. He makes some really crazy catches, but he doesn't have the athleticism of Purify.

[TrumanBD]

Most of that is accurate and rather good info, but it's more like Missouri is Nebraska Lite as far as the receiving corps as NU has actually done well against proven talent, Missouri has yet to do so.

 

Nate Swift is easily the best wide out on the team and Purify is BY FAR the most physically talented. As far as reliability I'd go Swift, Peterson, Purify, Hill, Nunn, Lucky... and than about 10 players later we hit Hardy.

 

 

The one thing I keep hearing from Husker fans is that you guys have proved yourself against proven talent and that Mizzou is yet to do so. I honestly just don't understand that. I don't think anything was proven against USC other than late in the game when their 3rd and 4th teams were in. Other than that game, I think that the Mizzou and Nebraska schedules have been pretty comparable. I think Illinois is a better team than Wake Forest. Ole Miss may not be great, but we did beat and SEC school on the road. What proven talent has Nebraska played other than USC?

[BIGREDIOWAN]

Most of that is accurate and rather good info, but it's more like Missouri is Nebraska Lite as far as the receiving corps as NU has actually done well against proven talent, Missouri has yet to do so.

 

Nate Swift is easily the best wide out on the team and Purify is BY FAR the most physically talented. As far as reliability I'd go Swift, Peterson, Purify, Hill, Nunn, Lucky... and than about 10 players later we hit Hardy.

 

 

The one thing I keep hearing from Husker fans is that you guys have proved yourself against proven talent and that Mizzou is yet to do so. I honestly just don't understand that. I don't think anything was proven against USC other than late in the game when their 3rd and 4th teams were in. Other than that game, I think that the Mizzou and Nebraska schedules have been pretty comparable. I think Illinois is a better team than Wake Forest. Ole Miss may not be great, but we did beat and SEC school on the road. What proven talent has Nebraska played other than USC?

I honestly don't think we have proven anything yet, but my blindness from my scarlet colored glasses will not let me say anything else, but we're going to win on Saturday. I'm sure you feel the same about your Tigers as you should. It's obvious to me thats it's going to come down to who's defense shows up on Saturday. The offenses are the keys to this game.

[TrumanBD]

Most of that is accurate and rather good info, but it's more like Missouri is Nebraska Lite as far as the receiving corps as NU has actually done well against proven talent, Missouri has yet to do so.

 

Nate Swift is easily the best wide out on the team and Purify is BY FAR the most physically talented. As far as reliability I'd go Swift, Peterson, Purify, Hill, Nunn, Lucky... and than about 10 players later we hit Hardy.

 

 

The one thing I keep hearing from Husker fans is that you guys have proved yourself against proven talent and that Mizzou is yet to do so. I honestly just don't understand that. I don't think anything was proven against USC other than late in the game when their 3rd and 4th teams were in. Other than that game, I think that the Mizzou and Nebraska schedules have been pretty comparable. I think Illinois is a better team than Wake Forest. Ole Miss may not be great, but we did beat and SEC school on the road. What proven talent has Nebraska played other than USC?

I honestly don't think we have proven anything yet, but my blindness from my scarlet colored glasses will not let me say anything else, but we're going to win on Saturday. I'm sure you feel the same about your Tigers as you should. It's obvious to me thats it's going to come down to who's defense shows up on Saturday. The offenses are the keys to this game.

 

I agree, I think some key turnovers or key special teams play will be the deciding factor on who wins. That being said, I don't think it is all that unreasonable for either team to win by 2 touchdowns.

[BIGREDIOWAN]

Most of that is accurate and rather good info, but it's more like Missouri is Nebraska Lite as far as the receiving corps as NU has actually done well against proven talent, Missouri has yet to do so.

 

Nate Swift is easily the best wide out on the team and Purify is BY FAR the most physically talented. As far as reliability I'd go Swift, Peterson, Purify, Hill, Nunn, Lucky... and than about 10 players later we hit Hardy.

 

 

The one thing I keep hearing from Husker fans is that you guys have proved yourself against proven talent and that Mizzou is yet to do so. I honestly just don't understand that. I don't think anything was proven against USC other than late in the game when their 3rd and 4th teams were in. Other than that game, I think that the Mizzou and Nebraska schedules have been pretty comparable. I think Illinois is a better team than Wake Forest. Ole Miss may not be great, but we did beat and SEC school on the road. What proven talent has Nebraska played other than USC?

I honestly don't think we have proven anything yet, but my blindness from my scarlet colored glasses will not let me say anything else, but we're going to win on Saturday. I'm sure you feel the same about your Tigers as you should. It's obvious to me thats it's going to come down to who's defense shows up on Saturday. The offenses are the keys to this game.

 

I agree, I think some key turnovers or key special teams play will be the deciding factor on who wins. That being said, I don't think it is all that unreasonable for either team to win by 2 touchdowns.

I disagree about the 2 touchdowns only because it's probably going to come down to whomever has the ball last. It's going to be a I score you score type of game IMO.

[TrumanBD]

Most of that is accurate and rather good info, but it's more like Missouri is Nebraska Lite as far as the receiving corps as NU has actually done well against proven talent, Missouri has yet to do so.

 

Nate Swift is easily the best wide out on the team and Purify is BY FAR the most physically talented. As far as reliability I'd go Swift, Peterson, Purify, Hill, Nunn, Lucky... and than about 10 players later we hit Hardy.

 

 

The one thing I keep hearing from Husker fans is that you guys have proved yourself against proven talent and that Mizzou is yet to do so. I honestly just don't understand that. I don't think anything was proven against USC other than late in the game when their 3rd and 4th teams were in. Other than that game, I think that the Mizzou and Nebraska schedules have been pretty comparable. I think Illinois is a better team than Wake Forest. Ole Miss may not be great, but we did beat and SEC school on the road. What proven talent has Nebraska played other than USC?

I honestly don't think we have proven anything yet, but my blindness from my scarlet colored glasses will not let me say anything else, but we're going to win on Saturday. I'm sure you feel the same about your Tigers as you should. It's obvious to me thats it's going to come down to who's defense shows up on Saturday. The offenses are the keys to this game.

 

I agree, I think some key turnovers or key special teams play will be the deciding factor on who wins. That being said, I don't think it is all that unreasonable for either team to win by 2 touchdowns.

I disagree about the 2 touchdowns only because it's probably going to come down to whomever has the ball last. It's going to be a I score you score type of game IMO.

 

 

The thing that gives me hope about that not being true is that our defense has actually shown some promise in the red zone. In fact, prior to last weeks games we were 2nd in the Big 12 in Red Zone Defense. Our DC has a bend don't break philosophy. I personally don't like it, but I have witnessed our team make some stops when we needed it. If we can hold you to some field goals early and even come away with some stops I think it won't quite be the shootout everyone is predicting. Still a high scoring game on both sides, but possibly with a 2 touchdown spread.

[BIGREDIOWAN]

Most of that is accurate and rather good info, but it's more like Missouri is Nebraska Lite as far as the receiving corps as NU has actually done well against proven talent, Missouri has yet to do so.

 

Nate Swift is easily the best wide out on the team and Purify is BY FAR the most physically talented. As far as reliability I'd go Swift, Peterson, Purify, Hill, Nunn, Lucky... and than about 10 players later we hit Hardy.

 

 

The one thing I keep hearing from Husker fans is that you guys have proved yourself against proven talent and that Mizzou is yet to do so. I honestly just don't understand that. I don't think anything was proven against USC other than late in the game when their 3rd and 4th teams were in. Other than that game, I think that the Mizzou and Nebraska schedules have been pretty comparable. I think Illinois is a better team than Wake Forest. Ole Miss may not be great, but we did beat and SEC school on the road. What proven talent has Nebraska played other than USC?

I honestly don't think we have proven anything yet, but my blindness from my scarlet colored glasses will not let me say anything else, but we're going to win on Saturday. I'm sure you feel the same about your Tigers as you should. It's obvious to me thats it's going to come down to who's defense shows up on Saturday. The offenses are the keys to this game.

 

I agree, I think some key turnovers or key special teams play will be the deciding factor on who wins. That being said, I don't think it is all that unreasonable for either team to win by 2 touchdowns.

I disagree about the 2 touchdowns only because it's probably going to come down to whomever has the ball last. It's going to be a I score you score type of game IMO.

 

 

The thing that gives me hope about that not being true is that our defense has actually shown some promise in the red zone. In fact, prior to last weeks games we were 2nd in the Big 12 in Red Zone Defense. Our DC has a bend don't break philosophy. I personally don't like it, but I have witnessed our team make some stops when we needed it. If we can hold you to some field goals early and even come away with some stops I think it won't quite be the shootout everyone is predicting. Still a high scoring game on both sides, but possibly with a 2 touchdown spread.

 

I can see what you are saying there. Our defense looked better against ISU because they were sworming to the ball and tackling better. I know that ISU had 400 yards of defense, but they looked a helluva lot better than they did against Ball State. I'm hoping that they improve for this game because they are going to need to. Wouldn't it be funny if this turned into a defensive game?

[melscott62]

Most of that is accurate and rather good info, but it's more like Missouri is Nebraska Lite as far as the receiving corps as NU has actually done well against proven talent, Missouri has yet to do so.

 

Nate Swift is easily the best wide out on the team and Purify is BY FAR the most physically talented. As far as reliability I'd go Swift, Peterson, Purify, Hill, Nunn, Lucky... and than about 10 players later we hit Hardy.

 

 

The one thing I keep hearing from Husker fans is that you guys have proved yourself against proven talent and that Mizzou is yet to do so. I honestly just don't understand that. I don't think anything was proven against USC other than late in the game when their 3rd and 4th teams were in. Other than that game, I think that the Mizzou and Nebraska schedules have been pretty comparable. I think Illinois is a better team than Wake Forest. Ole Miss may not be great, but we did beat and SEC school on the road. What proven talent has Nebraska played other than USC?

 

so you are just going to throw out the fact that we played the best team in the country.....ok.

[junior4949]

Our DC has a philosophy as well, "we may bleed and we may puncture an artery, but if all goes well we just won't quite bleed to death"!

[HSKRNOKC]

Our DC has a philosophy as well, "we may bleed and we may puncture an artery, but if all goes well we just won't quite bleed to death"!

pitiful but true.