Let's talk football: MU game matchups

[DocNice]

So far I've talked about generalities around who's done more against their schedule, who has more talent, but now let's dig into what we can really expect in the game.

 

NU Passing game vs Mizzou Secondary:

Nebraska: 32nd in the country at 256 yards passing per game

Mizzou: 68th in the country at 218 yards per game allowed

 

Nebraska had a very nice passing game last year in the top 15 in the nation. They started the year very nicely, and Lee has put up good numbers until the VT game. The VT game was really a pretty bad showing even if we account for dropped balls. 136 yards and 2 int's is hard to justify even if you tack on some yards for dropped balls. Prognosis: Nebraska's passing attack probably lies somewhere between competent and good. It depends on how much better Lee and the receivers can play, and how much they learned.

 

From what I've seen on here, Nebraska has some nice possession receivers and a good deep threat, but nobody is likely to make all conference.

 

Mizzou's pass defense was much maligned last year, and was particularly bad at giving up big pass plays. The problem last year was less about athletes than playing assignments, as evidenced by stretches of domination mixed with stretches of incompetence. What a difference a year makes. Under new defensive coordinator Steckel, the Tigers lead the conference in fewest big plays allowed. They faced two dangerous dual threat QBs in Juice Williams and Kapernick, and limited both nicely, but neither is a chip away sort of QB. BG's QB was that kind of player, but it's still BG, so you can only put so much stock in that.

 

Long story short, Mizzou will try to keep NU from hitting the home run. If they can execute with 5-10 yard passes in between runs consistently enough to move the chains., they'll score 28 or more points. If not, your run game better dominate.

 

Keys to this phase: Nebraska must execute short to mid range passing game consistently. Odds 45%.

Mizzou must get some pressure on the QB. Odds 65%.

 

Advantage: Push

 

Nebraska Running Game vs Mizzou rush defense

Nebraska: 41st rushing attack at 184 ypg

Mizzou: 64th rush defense at 133 ypg

 

Nebraska's biggest claim to success here is consistency, even against a good defense. The numbers aren't eye popping, but they are good. It remains to be seen how good VT's rush defense is, considering they haven't dominated any opponent in rush except Miami, which has 1 game with over 100 yards rushing. But nonetheless, this is no cupcake you ran on, and it would seem that your offensive line and running backs are to be taken seriously.

 

Mizzou's run defense was exposed a little bit last week against Nevada, particularly up the middle. They were actually quite stout outside the tackles, but in between, they got 6 yards pretty much every time they ran it until the latter half of the 4th quarter. Not sure why they went away from it really. But credit Mizzou for being able to stall Nevada drives without stacking the box. Or credit Ault for bad playcalling, one of the two.

 

One thing that gives me hope is that Illinois has a pretty decent rush game, and we held them in check. This combined with the fact that Nevada has a fairly unique rushing attack and some talent in the rushing game lifts some of the sense of doom in this matchup. But it's clear Nebraska has the edge here, the question is how much.

 

Assuming Nebraska's passing offense is moderately effective, I expect the Nebraska rushing offense to get about 150 yards and 5 yards per carry. If you get a lot more than that then you can probably win with only a weak passing game, but with 150-200 yards, you'll need help to win unless your D dominates. The real danger here for Nebraska is that if you need to rely on the run to win, you can't afford to get behind in the score and panic.

 

Keys to this phase: Missouri would greatly help its cause to stop NU up the gut. They tend to have good sideline to sideline speed, so it's important to go right at Mizzou. Odds: 35%.

 

Advantage: Nebraska

 

Mizzou passing offense vs Nebraska passing defense

Mizzou: 4th, 330 ypg

Nebraska: 31st, 168 ypg allowed

 

This really the biggest key to the game. Mizzou has had pretty good success passing the ball against a variety of defenses. I've listed the stats before, but to summarize, Gabbert is easily the most successful first time starter out there, and has some of the best stats of any QB not getting Heisman attention. The biggest struggle was against Bowling Green, who dropped 7 and even 8 into coverage, and for a while managed to pressure the QB. Mizzou has been pretty good in pass protection outside of those 20 minutes of football or so, and they've faced some talented DE's and LB's, so I'm not especially worried about protection. You'll get to Gabbert a couple of times, and hurry a couple times more, but it won't be the difference in the game more than likely. But I digress. Mizzou has seen different kinds of coverage and been successful, but it hasn't faced a truly great defense.

 

Unfortunately for Nebraska, I'm not sure you're that defense from what I've read on the board. The pass rush has not been great or bad, and the secondary hasn't really been tested. However, you have been good in your games, so we don't know what to expect.

 

Ultimately, Mizzou has too much talent at QB and receiver not win this battle. You simply are not going to shut the passing attack down. Your best bet is to slow it, stall out the drives you can and limit Mizzou to FGs in the red zone.

 

Key to this phase: Mizzou must execute the passing attack in the red zone and get 7 points. Odds: 55%

 

Advantage: Mizzou

 

Mizzou rush offense against Nebraska rush defense

Mizzou: 62nd in nation, 143 ypg

Nebraska: 44th in nation, 113 ypg allowed

 

This seems like a no brainer for Nebraska, and that's ultimately the way I'll call it. I'm surprised given Nebraska's domination of VT that they haven't had as much success against lesser opponents. Not sure what that means. Mizzou was supposed to have a good rushing attack this year, but had weak outings against Illinois and Nevada, though they overpowered BG and Furman. The only good news here for Mizzou is: a) they have the talent to improve right away if they sort some things out, and B) Illinois and Nevada both sold out to stop the run, stacking the box and daring Mizzou to pass, which of course they did successfully.

 

Unlike past years, Mizzou has actually stuck with the run when it wasn't working, but even with all these excuses, the 3.8 yards per carry is not good. Ultimately, I think Mizzou is capable of coming out and having a respectable rushing day on Nebraska, perhaps 100 to 150 yards, but I'm not counting on it.

 

Keys to this phase: Mizzou must find some area on the line to find leverage and contain Suh, and the offensive line needs to open more holes. Odds: 25%.

 

Advantage: Significant Nebraska advantage

 

Special Teams:

Punt returns: NU 31st, MU 85th

Opponent punt returns: NU 31st, MU 19th

Kick returns: NU 49th, MU 60th

Opponent kick returns: NU 62th, MU 99th

Punting: NU 64th, MU 14th

Opponent punting: NU 100th, MU Missouri 28th

 

There doesn't seem to be a clear edge here for either team. Both have strengths and weaknesses, but you don't see any strength on weakness matchups. Both kickers are pretty automatic within 45 yards or so. NU might have 5 yards more range, but honestly how often does that matter?

 

Key to this phase: Field position. I don't see either team breaking off a huge return for a TD, but in a tight game field position could be key, especially off of kickoff returns. If Nebraska can set up around midfield a few times against Mizzou's poor coverage, that could go a long way to helping the offense. Odds: 55%.

 

Advantage: Push

 

Overall:

This looks like a classic lines vs skill players game, and could go either way. However, not all phases of the game are equal, and Mizzou's passing advantage could prove critical.

 

3 keys to the game for Mizzou:

1. Limit big plays. Make NU earn it. Odds: 60%.

2. Hold Nebraska under 200 yards rushing. Odds: 55%.

3. Keep NU honest with the rush. Just 90 yards should do it. Odds: 45%

 

3 keys to the game for Nebraska:

1. Get the passing game going. 250 yards passing should be enough. Odds: 40%.

2. Pressure Gabbert without blitzing too often. Odds: 40%.

3. Control the clock. Keep at least 38 minutes of possession: Odds: 50%.

 

Prediction: Nebraska will control, but not dominate, the lines of scrimmage, and control the clock. They will get 150 to 200 yards rushing and add another 200 passing. Mizzou will force enough 3rd and longs to stall out most drives. Mizzou will move the ball heavily through the air. Nebraska will force negative plays on enough drives to stall them, but not consistently. Mizzou will struggle in the red zone, relying on big plays to score at least half their TDs, and settle for FGs on at least half their trips inside the 20. It will be a close game until the early 4th quarter when Mizzou will pull away.

 

Factor most likely to sway this prediction in NU's favor: NU DOMINATES the LOS and rushes at will, pressures Gabbert and shuts down the run game.

Factor most likely to sway this prediction in MU's favor: MU minimizes NU's rushing game and gets a rushing game of its own going.

 

Score: 31-21 Mizzou.

[California Husker]

Score: 31-21 Mizzou.

 

Probably not.

[CENTEXHUSKER]

Factor most likely to sway this prediction in MU's favor: MU minimizes NU's rushing game and gets a rushing game of its own going.

 

MU will find out that they are probably not very effective at stopping the run, especially the B12's leading rusher.

 

38-23 'skers

[Shadow_Husker]

Factor most likely to sway this prediction in MU's favor: MU minimizes NU's rushing game and gets a rushing game of its own going.

 

MU will find out that they are probably not very effective at stopping the run, especially the B12's leading rusher.

 

38-23 'skers

 

I would say 38-23 is a fair asessment If Nu come's out and get's thing's rolling early we will be tough to stop. I wonder If Suh has A gps System installed for Gabbert?

[Cali Sker (in Boston)]

I can't find too much to disagree with. Except...there's no way we don't absolutely dominate in special teams. Henery and Kunalic are easily the best kick/punt combo in the country.

[DocNice]

I can't find too much to disagree with. Except...there's no way we don't absolutely dominate in special teams. Henery and Kunalic are easily the best kick/punt combo in the country.

 

If you gain a significant advantage on special teams it will be on kickoff returns most likely. If your punter is so much more superior, why do we rank 14th and you 64th. And our punter is pretty good at pinning teams deep too. Lastly, let's say your kicker is really good, what evidence do you have? It's hard to do much better than 100% as our kicker is.

[DocNice]

Factor most likely to sway this prediction in MU's favor: MU minimizes NU's rushing game and gets a rushing game of its own going.

 

MU will find out that they are probably not very effective at stopping the run, especially the B12's leading rusher.

 

38-23 'skers

 

I would say 38-23 is a fair asessment If Nu come's out and get's thing's rolling early we will be tough to stop. I wonder If Suh has A gps System installed for Gabbert?

 

I think 38-23 equates to total and complete domination in the trenches by Nebraska and/or a passing game equivalent to the success you had in your cupcake games. I don't imagine that will happen, but I could be wrong.

 

If Mizzou gets is "factor most likely to sway" then it will be a Mizzou blowout IMHO. The score prediction was without that happening.

[Bayside76]

Having Missouri win 31 to 21 would be a complete shock. Three touchdowns for Nebraska with no contributions from Alex Henry is just something I don't see happening. Nebraska will get the TDs but you have to figure that some of the stops that you are talking about on 3rd down will result in Pelini sending in Henry for two to three field goals. The kid has ice in his veins. I see Nebraska taking this one 30 - 24.

[dizzturbedNUfan]

I can't find too much to disagree with. Except...there's no way we don't absolutely dominate in special teams. Henery and Kunalic are easily the best kick/punt combo in the country.

 

If you gain a significant advantage on special teams it will be on kickoff returns most likely. If your punter is so much more superior, why do we rank 14th and you 64th. And our punter is pretty good at pinning teams deep too. Lastly, let's say your kicker is really good, what evidence do you have? It's hard to do much better than 100% as our kicker is.

I'm pretty sure ours is 100% this year also. How many of your field goal kickers are +50?

[DocNice]

I can't find too much to disagree with. Except...there's no way we don't absolutely dominate in special teams. Henery and Kunalic are easily the best kick/punt combo in the country.

 

If you gain a significant advantage on special teams it will be on kickoff returns most likely. If your punter is so much more superior, why do we rank 14th and you 64th. And our punter is pretty good at pinning teams deep too. Lastly, let's say your kicker is really good, what evidence do you have? It's hard to do much better than 100% as our kicker is.

I'm pretty sure ours is 100% this year also. How many of your field goal kickers are +50?

 

You've missed one long one, but honestly, how much advantage is that extra 5 yards of range?

[hskrfan4life]

pretty big advantage if it's a game winning kick. the reason why we rank badly in punts is they don't take the yards of pinning opponents in their own 20 which over half of Henrey's punts have been. And have good luck trying to return kickoffs when adi is booting touchbacks left and right.

[Twodocs]

The talk is Zac can not hit the long ball

 

watch this video

 

http://video.tigerboard.com/tbtv/view/inde...92909/segment/2

 

Once we return to beating MU every year like what happened for the last 50 years there are goping to be some real nasty MU fans cause they really think that they are very good!!!!

[carlfense]

I can't find too much to disagree with. Except...there's no way we don't absolutely dominate in special teams. Henery and Kunalic are easily the best kick/punt combo in the country.

 

If you gain a significant advantage on special teams it will be on kickoff returns most likely. If your punter is so much more superior, why do we rank 14th and you 64th. And our punter is pretty good at pinning teams deep too. Lastly, let's say your kicker is really good, what evidence do you have? It's hard to do much better than 100% as our kicker is.

 

Evidence for you courtesy of Big Willie: (notice how Henery has hit 154 of 159. No offense . . . but Ressel's numbers very likely will not look that good over his career.)

 

"Silly Tigers.

 

You bring up Wolfert, but fail to recognize that Henery has connected on 154 out of 159 career kicks. Or for you mathematicians, that is 96.9%.

 

Henery has missed 4 FG's in his career. Of that 4 FG's, 3 were kicked from 50+ yards. The ONLY FG that Henery has missed of less than 50 yards in his entire career was last year against New Mexico State. This from a junior who has started all 3 years.

 

Also, half of Henery's punt attempts have landed inside the opponents 20 this season.

 

Just sayin'."

 

Doc . . . you seem a little bit blinded.

[Rep The 402]

I can't find too much to disagree with. Except...there's no way we don't absolutely dominate in special teams. Henery and Kunalic are easily the best kick/punt combo in the country.

 

If you gain a significant advantage on special teams it will be on kickoff returns most likely. If your punter is so much more superior, why do we rank 14th and you 64th. And our punter is pretty good at pinning teams deep too. Lastly, let's say your kicker is really good, what evidence do you have? It's hard to do much better than 100% as our kicker is.

 

Evidence for you courtesy of Big Willie: (notice how Henery has hit 154 of 159. No offense . . . but Ressel's numbers very likely will not look that good over his career.)

 

"Silly Tigers.

 

You bring up Wolfert, but fail to recognize that Henery has connected on 154 out of 159 career kicks. Or for you mathematicians, that is 96.9%.

 

Henery has missed 4 FG's in his career. Of that 4 FG's, 3 were kicked from 50+ yards. The ONLY FG that Henery has missed of less than 50 yards in his entire career was last year against New Mexico State. This from a junior who has started all 3 years.

 

Also, half of Henery's punt attempts have landed inside the opponents 20 this season.

 

Just sayin'."

 

Doc . . . you seem a little bit blinded.

Burn

[knapplc]

Doc . . . you seem a little bit blinded.

Understatement of the year.