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Big12 vs BigEast Fiesta bowl is pretty much 95% guarantee.

 

3. The champion of Conference USA, the Mid-American Conference, the Mountain West Conference, the Sun Belt Conference, or the Western Athletic Conference will earn an automatic berth in a BCS bowl game if either:

 

* A. Such team is ranked in the top 12 of the final BCS Standings, or,

* B. Such team is ranked in the top 16 of the final BCS Standings and its ranking in the final BCS Standings is higher than that of a champion of a conference that has an annual automatic berth in one of the BCS bowls.

 

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I don't see how the Big East gets in there without a ranked team...

 

Here's what I think:

 

NCG - Oregon vs. TCU, both undefeated

Orange - ACC champ vs. at large, no other ACC teams close to BCS bowl

Sugar - 1 loss Auburn vs. at large, LSU still high in the at large

Rose - Stanford vs. Wisconsin, Ohio and Michigan State both still high in at large

Fiesta - Big 12 champ (hopefully us) vs. at large, no other Big 12 team high in at large

 

So that leaves Boise, LSU, Ohio State, Michigan State as high at large teams. In my perfect BCS bowl outcome it would be:

 

NCG - Oregon vs. TCU (should be an awesome game)

Orange - ACC champ (no idea who wins that) vs. LSU

Sugar - Auburn vs. Boise

Rose - Stanford vs. Wisconsin

Fiesta - Nebraska vs. Michigan State (they have a better shot at winning out than OSU)

 

Isn't there any scenario where the Big East is so bad that other teams bump them off?

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A conference should lose its automatic qualifier if its not ranked in the top 20 or at least top 25.

 

But the bottom line is, the Fiesta is the last pick this year (they rotate every year; Fiesta will get first choice next season) so the Big 12 champ faces the least attractive at-large. Kinda sucks, but a BCS bowl is a BCS bowl. We could also play Syracuse, USF, or NC State. Maybe even Boise.

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Big12 vs BigEast Fiesta bowl is pretty much 95% guarantee.

 

3. The champion of Conference USA, the Mid-American Conference, the Mountain West Conference, the Sun Belt Conference, or the Western Athletic Conference will earn an automatic berth in a BCS bowl game if either:

 

* A. Such team is ranked in the top 12 of the final BCS Standings, or,

* B. Such team is ranked in the top 16 of the final BCS Standings and its ranking in the final BCS Standings is higher than that of a champion of a conference that has an annual automatic berth in one of the BCS bowls.

 

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I don't see how the Big East gets in there without a ranked team...

 

Here's what I think:

 

NCG - Oregon vs. TCU, both undefeated

Orange - ACC champ vs. at large, no other ACC teams close to BCS bowl

Sugar - 1 loss Auburn vs. at large, LSU still high in the at large

Rose - Stanford vs. Wisconsin, Ohio and Michigan State both still high in at large

Fiesta - Big 12 champ (hopefully us) vs. at large, no other Big 12 team high in at large

 

So that leaves Boise, LSU, Ohio State, Michigan State as high at large teams. In my perfect BCS bowl outcome it would be:

 

NCG - Oregon vs. TCU (should be an awesome game)

Orange - ACC champ (no idea who wins that) vs. LSU

Sugar - Auburn vs. Boise

Rose - Stanford vs. Wisconsin

Fiesta - Nebraska vs. Michigan State (they have a better shot at winning out than OSU)

 

Isn't there any scenario where the Big East is so bad that other teams bump them off?

 

No. Big East gets a spot no matter what. A Mid major only gets a AT LARGE spot if they meet those qualifications. They do not take the Big East's spot.

 

Also I see Boise possibly not making a BCS bowl in some of these scenarios. After one non-BCS team (TCU) in this example gets selected, these rules become meaningless. These roles only guaranteed the highest rated non-BCS team that meets these qualifications will make it.

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Big12 vs BigEast Fiesta bowl is pretty much 95% guarantee.

 

3. The champion of Conference USA, the Mid-American Conference, the Mountain West Conference, the Sun Belt Conference, or the Western Athletic Conference will earn an automatic berth in a BCS bowl game if either:

 

* A. Such team is ranked in the top 12 of the final BCS Standings, or,

* B. Such team is ranked in the top 16 of the final BCS Standings and its ranking in the final BCS Standings is higher than that of a champion of a conference that has an annual automatic berth in one of the BCS bowls.

 

-----------------

 

I don't see how the Big East gets in there without a ranked team...

 

Here's what I think:

 

NCG - Oregon vs. TCU, both undefeated

Orange - ACC champ vs. at large, no other ACC teams close to BCS bowl

Sugar - 1 loss Auburn vs. at large, LSU still high in the at large

Rose - Stanford vs. Wisconsin, Ohio and Michigan State both still high in at large

Fiesta - Big 12 champ (hopefully us) vs. at large, no other Big 12 team high in at large

 

So that leaves Boise, LSU, Ohio State, Michigan State as high at large teams. In my perfect BCS bowl outcome it would be:

 

NCG - Oregon vs. TCU (should be an awesome game)

Orange - ACC champ (no idea who wins that) vs. LSU

Sugar - Auburn vs. Boise

Rose - Stanford vs. Wisconsin

Fiesta - Nebraska vs. Michigan State (they have a better shot at winning out than OSU)

 

Isn't there any scenario where the Big East is so bad that other teams bump them off?

 

Big East is an AQ. They get their champion in as long as they have 6 wins.

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Big12 vs BigEast Fiesta bowl is pretty much 95% guarantee.

 

3. The champion of Conference USA, the Mid-American Conference, the Mountain West Conference, the Sun Belt Conference, or the Western Athletic Conference will earn an automatic berth in a BCS bowl game if either:

 

* A. Such team is ranked in the top 12 of the final BCS Standings, or,

* B. Such team is ranked in the top 16 of the final BCS Standings and its ranking in the final BCS Standings is higher than that of a champion of a conference that has an annual automatic berth in one of the BCS bowls.

 

-----------------

 

I don't see how the Big East gets in there without a ranked team...

 

Here's what I think:

 

NCG - Oregon vs. TCU, both undefeated

Orange - ACC champ vs. at large, no other ACC teams close to BCS bowl

Sugar - 1 loss Auburn vs. at large, LSU still high in the at large

Rose - Stanford vs. Wisconsin, Ohio and Michigan State both still high in at large

Fiesta - Big 12 champ (hopefully us) vs. at large, no other Big 12 team high in at large

 

So that leaves Boise, LSU, Ohio State, Michigan State as high at large teams. In my perfect BCS bowl outcome it would be:

 

NCG - Oregon vs. TCU (should be an awesome game)

Orange - ACC champ (no idea who wins that) vs. LSU

Sugar - Auburn vs. Boise

Rose - Stanford vs. Wisconsin

Fiesta - Nebraska vs. Michigan State (they have a better shot at winning out than OSU)

 

Isn't there any scenario where the Big East is so bad that other teams bump them off?

 

Big East is an AQ. They get their champion in as long as they have 6 wins.

Not in the case that Scenario B above is true... I don't know if that is correct but if it is it sounds to me like the Big East won't be getting a BCS Bowl.

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Also I see Boise possibly not making a BCS bowl in some of these scenarios. After one non-BCS team (TCU) in this example gets selected, these rules become meaningless. These roles only guaranteed the highest rated non-BCS team that meets these qualifications will make it.

If Boise stays in the top 4, they'll make it under the rule that #3 and then #4 make it if there is still a spot open.

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How about this scenario:

 

Pitt loses to USF AND WVU or Cincy

USF and Syracuse win out in conference play

 

All of this is very possible. That makes a three-way tie for the Big East at 5-2. As far as I can tell, the next tie-breaker after head-to-head is BCS ranking. It's anybody's guess at that point... Pitt would have the worst overall record, but also the toughest schedule. Syracuse would have the best overall, but a terrible schedule with two wins against FCS. If USF also beats Miami (unlikely) they would probably end up on top. Otherwise it's close. Either way, none of them will be in the top 25.

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Also I see Boise possibly not making a BCS bowl in some of these scenarios. After one non-BCS team (TCU) in this example gets selected, these rules become meaningless. These roles only guaranteed the highest rated non-BCS team that meets these qualifications will make it.

If Boise stays in the top 4, they'll make it under the rule that #3 and then #4 make it if there is still a spot open.

 

No, that only applies to the highest ranked non-AQ. Once TCU is in, Boise is not guaranteed anything.

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Also I see Boise possibly not making a BCS bowl in some of these scenarios. After one non-BCS team (TCU) in this example gets selected, these rules become meaningless. These roles only guaranteed the highest rated non-BCS team that meets these qualifications will make it.

If Boise stays in the top 4, they'll make it under the rule that #3 and then #4 make it if there is still a spot open.

 

No, that only applies to the highest ranked non-AQ. Once TCU is in, Boise is non guaranteed anything.

 

OK, I looked up the BCS rules and found that the provision for the #3 and #4 ranked teams applies to AQ schools. So you're right that at most only one of TCU and Boise is guaranteed a spot.

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Actually we only need to beat 2 of our last 3 unless missouri loses again then we only need to win 1 and we'd be in the ccg and have to win that for a guaranteed bcs game.

if we win the next three games, but lose the big 12 championship game (maybe to a one loss okie st.) do we still get to a bcs game?

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