A Few Sobering Statistics

[knapplc]

 

Ok, how does my quote of your post have UCLA in it, but your original post does not?

 

That would be because you were correct, my original post didn't have UCLA in there, so I edited it. Apparently I was doing that as you were quoting me.

 

Regardless, we didn't have three FCS opponents in our last 11 games, which was actually what I was pointing out. I'm not sure at all what that stat Callahan was trying to point out was, or what it meant.

[Count 'Bility]

Bo Pelini was 20-5 during a time from the Iowa St game in '09 until the Wisconsin game in '11. How's that for spin.

[grandpasknee]

I had a little time this morning and, admittedly, I'm still a little upset about Saturday's loss, so I started looking at some stats during Pelini's tenure. The general consensus among husker fans seems to be that the hallmark of the Pelini regime is self destruction when it really matters. During Pelini's tenure, we have played 19 games against ranked opponents (winning 7 of the contests, 58% of the games) and have turned the ball over 38 times, while our opponents have turned the ball over 21 times. So, over the course of 19 ranked games, we average 2 turnovers/game, while our opponents average 1.1/game. Through contests with those 19 ranked foes, Pelini's Huskers have accrued 164 penalties for 1347 yards, averaging 8.6 penalties/game and 70.9 penalty yards/game and have outgained ranked opponents in penalty yards 14 out of 19 times. Ranked opponents have amassed 106 penalties for 950 yards, averaging 5.6 penalties/game for 50 penalty yards/game. So, in games against ranked foes, Pelini's Huskers have averaged 3 more penalites and almost 21 more penalty yards, while turning the ball over almost twice as much. That's no recipe for success.

 

Nextly, I examined every other game during Pelini's tenure (excluding the 2003 Alamo Bowl, when he was interim coach). In the 41 other games that Pelini has coached, we have turned the ball over 71 times (1.73/game), while opponents have turned it over 72 times (1.76/game). So, in games against unranked opponents, we are only +1 in the turnover margin. IMO, that's unacceptable when you consider the unranked teams that we have played over the last 4 1/2 years:

 

2008

Western Michigan, MAC, (9-4)

San Jose State, WAC, (6-6)

New Mexico State, WAC, (3-9)

Iowa State, Big XII, (2-10)

Baylor, Big XII, (4-8)

KU, Big XII, (8-5)

KSU, Big XII, (5-7)

Colorado, Big XII, (5-7)

Clemson, ACC, (7-6)

 

2009

Florida Atlantic, Sun Belt, (5-7)

Arkansas State, Sun Belt, (4-8)

Louisiana Lafayette, Sun Belt, (6-6)

Texas Tech, Big XII, (9-4)

Iowa State, Big XII, (7-6)

Baylor, Big XII, (4-8)

KU, Big XII, (5-7)

KSU, Big XII, (6-6)

Colorado, Big XII, (3-9)

 

2010

Western Kentucky, Sun Belt, (2-10)

Idaho, WAC, (6-7)

Washington, PAC 12, (7-6)

South Dakota State, MVC (FCS), (5-6)

KSU, Big XII, (7-6)

Texas, Big XII, (5-7)

Iowa State, Big XII, (5-7)

KU, Big XII, (3-9)

Colorado, Big XII, (5-7)

Washington, PAC 12, (7-6)

 

2011

Tennessee Chattanooga, Southern (FCS), (5-6)

Fresno St, MWC, (4-9)

Washington, PAC 12, (7-6)

Wyoming, MWC, (8-5)

Ohio State, B1G, (6-7)

Minnesota, B1G, (3-9)

Northwestern, B1G, (6-7)

Iowa, B1G, (7-6)

 

2012

Southern Miss, Conference USA, (0-5)*

UCLA, PAC 12, (4-2)*

Arkansas State, Sun Belt, (3-3)*

Idaho State, Big Sky (FCS), (1-4)*

Wisconsin, B1G, (4-2)*

 

* = records aren't final

• 23/41 of those unranked teams had/have losing records, while the win pct of the entire group is a pedestrian 44% and we are only +1 in the turnover margin. During the entirety of Pelini's tenure (again, excluding the 03 Alamo Bowl), we're -16 in turnovers.
  
• In the 41 games we have played against unranked opponents, NU has accrued 2,401 penalty yards, which averages out to 58.6 penalty yards/game. Conversely, our opponents in the same 41 games accrued 1,844 yards, which averages out to be 45 penalty yards/game.
  
• In the 41 contests against unranked foes, NU has amassed more penalty yards than the opponent 27 times (66% of the time)
  

TOTAL

• Through 60 games at Nebraska, Pelini's Huskers have turned the ball over 109 times (1.82 turnovers/game), while opponents have turned it over 93 times (1.55 turnovers/game)
  
• Through 60 games at Nebraska, Pelini's Huskers are -16 in turnover margin
  
• Through 60 games at Nebraska, Pelini's Huskers have accrued 3,748 penalty yards, averaging 62.5 penalty yards/game.
  
• Through 60 games at Nebraska, Pelini's Huskers are +954 in penalty yards
  
• Through 60 games at Nebraska, Pelini's Huskers have amassed more penalty yards than the opponent 41 times(68% of the time)
  

Whoa....Pelini dominates in several categories then! Sweet!!!

 

[H2h]

 

Ok, how does my quote of your post have UCLA in it, but your original post does not?

 

That would be because you were correct, my original post didn't have UCLA in there, so I edited it. Apparently I was doing that as you were quoting me.

 

Regardless, we didn't have three FCS opponents in our last 11 games, which was actually what I was pointing out. I'm not sure at all what that stat Callahan was trying to point out was, or what it meant.

 

I believe it was non-BCS or FCS. I take that to mean not a BCS conference team.

[strigori]

Since our embarrassing loss to CU in 2001, we are 58-51 against BCS opponents. NOt just Pelini, for some reason since that fateful day in November we have been truly average at best. Our W-L record has been pumped up by playing non BCS opponents or Div II schools.

Since our embarrassing loss to CU in 2001, we are 58-51 against BCS opponents. NOt just Pelini, for some reason since that fateful day in November we have been truly average at best. Our W-L record has been pumped up by playing non BCS opponents or Div II schools.

 

That is a truly great post. You have placed into perspective what we all need to know --- for a decade now (plus a few years) NU has been barely over .500 against BCS teams --- the fluff games are irrelevant.

 

58-51. That should be enough to mellow those whose expectations are that NU is going to compete at any meaningful level. He have not for years. We are not competing now at a level that makes us legitimate a threat to win anything (MNC, conference... or even conference division title). There is NO. NONE. ZERO objective reason to see NU competing at a level whereby the seroiusly challenge for any title of any sort in the foreseeable future.

 

Temper your expectations and enjoy it whenever we do do well. Otherwise you guys will just elevate your blood pressure needlessly because your expectations for this program are not even remotely realistic. We do not have a top 25 program in football any more. We do not have a top 25 caliber head coach or coaching staff. We probably have fringe top 25 talent. But overall... if NU goes above .500 in conference play... that is about all that can be realistically expected.

Is this supposed to be snarky? Or have you given up and thrown in the towel and become like an Iowa fan?

 

Numbers like that show me that we need to keep looking for a head coach that get the frickin job done.

[BartonHusker]

Pretty sobering stats but it is pretty much what many have already knew with common sense. If you know football and watch enough you can tell what a well coached team is and one that is not. Pentalies and turn-overs are the #1 tell tale sign of bad football. You can have good talent and still come up short if your not doing the little things right.

 

I would love to see the stats for Bill Snyder and KSU when it comes to pentalies and turn-overs. I'm sure you could tell right away from his many good years compared to his few bad years. During a typical Snyder/KSU team that averages 10+ wins, they hardly ever turn-over the ball or commit stupid pentalies. Also look at how many turn-overs they force and what wonderful work they do on special teams. Football in the grand scheme of things isn't a difficult sport if you just play smart and don't play like a idiot... Tom Osborne and Bill Snyder has proven that.