2011-2015 recruiting and where they are. Might be some of this 2-4

[It'sNotAFakeID]

 

 

 

But what's the average rate? Sure 38% seems like a lot but what the national average for a recruit staying for 4 or 5 years. I'm not trying to be a troll or start a fight and 38% seems like a lot but with out knowing what other teams deal with it is hard to say how much affect it really has.

General consensus is that, on average, any given recruit has about a 50/50 chance of panning out.

 

This is a nearly identical argument to the "too many walkons on the travel roster" argument from a few weeks ago that was thoroughly debunked once we started looking at the travel rosters of other schools.

 

 

Then, by all means, please post some stats that back up your claim. Obviously "general consensus"--whatever that means--would say that any given recruit has a 50/50 chance of panning out...that's just probability, he either works or he doesn't.

 

Now, if you can tell me the attrition rate at other programs and find that Nebraska's close to average, then you can say that this is debunked.

 

You want me to do your work for you? Here's one link to get you started. It just deals with SEC QBs from '05-'14. Pro-style QBs had a 37.5% success rate, while dual threats came in at 18.8%.

http://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/sec-football/last-decades-elite-qb-recruits-panned/

 

Here's one for OU showing 40% attrition. (BTW, attrition means leaves school. The 50% figure I quoted above is a rule of thumb with the recruiting services and includes players who stay 4 years but never become starters.)

https://thefootballbrainiacs.com/ou-oklahoma-sooners-football-recruiting-transfer-attrition-problem

 

Now, if you want to do your own research, go to scout.com or rivals.com and look up recruiting classes for particular schools from a few years ago and then check how many of those guys are still on the current roster. If you do it, it will be a good learning experience, but I don't expect you to post the results as they will be counter to your agenda.

 

 

You were the one purporting a claim, all I was asking was for you to back it up. Much like trials, you have to prove your claim beyond a reasonable doubt. It's not good enough to say: "general consensus is 50/50" and then ask me to provide evidence for that.

[BRV920]

Just did a little research on attrition rates. The ACC's is 37% for the whole conference. So it looks like we are right in line with everybody else. Shall we lock this thread now?

[BRV920]

Found this also. The power 5 attrition rate is 38%

[Danny Bateman]

Onus is on you to back up your own claims if you want to refute that 39% is a ridiculous number for attrition. It makes sense that QB success rate would be low because that's a very difficult position to play. OU is a start, but hardly representative of an average.

 

50% is a fuel of thumb? For who? I certainly wasn't aware. What's your sefinition of "working out?" Does that include a guy who never does anything spectacular but develops into an average starter or even a capable backup? Because that still helps the team. A lot. Something that none of those 39% can do... they're simply a black hole in the roster.

[Danny Bateman]

You gonna link that BRV?

[GBRedneck]

 

 

 

 

But what's the average rate? Sure 38% seems like a lot but what the national average for a recruit staying for 4 or 5 years. I'm not trying to be a troll or start a fight and 38% seems like a lot but with out knowing what other teams deal with it is hard to say how much affect it really has.

General consensus is that, on average, any given recruit has about a 50/50 chance of panning out.

 

This is a nearly identical argument to the "too many walkons on the travel roster" argument from a few weeks ago that was thoroughly debunked once we started looking at the travel rosters of other schools.

 

 

Then, by all means, please post some stats that back up your claim. Obviously "general consensus"--whatever that means--would say that any given recruit has a 50/50 chance of panning out...that's just probability, he either works or he doesn't.

 

Now, if you can tell me the attrition rate at other programs and find that Nebraska's close to average, then you can say that this is debunked.

 

You want me to do your work for you? Here's one link to get you started. It just deals with SEC QBs from '05-'14. Pro-style QBs had a 37.5% success rate, while dual threats came in at 18.8%.

http://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/sec-football/last-decades-elite-qb-recruits-panned/

 

Here's one for OU showing 40% attrition. (BTW, attrition means leaves school. The 50% figure I quoted above is a rule of thumb with the recruiting services and includes players who stay 4 years but never become starters.)

https://thefootballbrainiacs.com/ou-oklahoma-sooners-football-recruiting-transfer-attrition-problem

 

Now, if you want to do your own research, go to scout.com or rivals.com and look up recruiting classes for particular schools from a few years ago and then check how many of those guys are still on the current roster. If you do it, it will be a good learning experience, but I don't expect you to post the results as they will be counter to your agenda.

 

 

You were the one purporting a claim, all I was asking was for you to back it up. Much like trials, you have to prove your claim beyond a reasonable doubt. It's not good enough to say: "general consensus is 50/50" and then ask me to provide evidence for that.

 

No you (or at least the OP) were the ones making a claim that the Huskers have a bare cupboard due to some arbitrary line of attrition being crossed. People are posting half the statistical story and expecting people to swallow it hook, line and sinker.

 

It's the exact same thing that happened with the "Travel Roster Walkons" issue from a few weeks ago.

[BRV920]

http://hamptonroads.com/2015/03/attrition-rates-tell-partial-tale-hokies-swoon-last-few-years

[GBRedneck]

Onus is on you to back up your own claims if you want to refute that 39% is a ridiculous number for attrition. It makes sense that QB success rate would be low because that's a very difficult position to play. OU is a start, but hardly representative of an average.

 

50% is a fuel of thumb? For who? I certainly wasn't aware. What's your sefinition of "working out?" Does that include a guy who never does anything spectacular but develops into an average starter or even a capable backup? Because that still helps the team. A lot. Something that none of those 39% can do... they're simply a black hole in the roster.

No, the flaw in your reasoning has already been pointed out. XX% is meaningless unless we know the rate for other teams. That puts the onus back on you to show that your 38% number has any meaning.

 

I already linked to one article showing Oklahoma has a 40% attrition rate.

 

And please, stay away from magnifying glasses. All that sunshine you're pumping might start the straws you're grasping for on fire.

[GBRedneck]

http://hamptonroads.com/2015/03/attrition-rates-tell-partial-tale-hokies-swoon-last-few-years

 

And we're done. Another myth debunked.

[lo country]

So how did Bo win 9 with such horrific attrition and crappy classes...... (Not a Bo supporter)

 

I don't believe for a minute we have less talent than the teams we've faced thus far. Wisky beat us with a lb converted to a RB and a safety who was a QB, switched to WR and then to safety. With a QB who sucks...... Our "pathetic" team (per the recruiting gurus) however managed to score 21 points on a team that had only allowed 13 the previous few games.

 

It's not talent. It's coaching..............

[GBRedneck]

Here are the attrition numbers for the Big 10 from BRV's link:

 

Following information covers 2002-2013 signing classes for Big 10 schools. Research from those signing classes found the number of players that failed to complete their eligibility at that school. Failures were counted for: non-qualifiers, players getting dismissed, failing school, transfers, just quit playing football or unknown reasons. If players left school early for NFL, I do not count them as failing to complete eligibility. Updated 3/3/2015

 

Big 10 Schools

 

Illinois

 

2014 Signed 17 - 01 (06%)

2013 Signed 25 - 06 (24%)

2012 Signed 19 - 06 (32%)

2011 Signed 27 - 14 (52%)

2010 Signed 21 - 08 (38%)

2009 Signed 22 - 12 (55%)

2008 Signed 28 - 10 (36%)

2007 Signed 22 - 14 (64%)

2006 Signed 27 - 06 (22%)

2005 Signed 20 - 11 (55%)

2004 Signed 24 - 15 (63%)

2003 Signed 26 - 10 (38%)

2002 Signed 23 - 09 (39%)

 

Totals Signed 301 – 122 (41%)

 

Indiana

 

2014 Signed 26 - 01 (04%)

2013 Signed 24 - 09 (38%)

2012 Signed 25 - 09 (36%)

2011 Signed 21 - 04 (19%)

2010 Signed 25 - 23 (92%)

2009 Signed 19 - 12 (63%)

2008 Signed 20 - 14 (70%)

2007 Signed 20 - 10 (50%)

2006 Signed 21 - 06 (29%)

2005 Signed 24 - 10 (42%)

2004 Signed 26 - 14 (54%)

2003 Signed 25 - 09 (36%)

2002 Signed 21 - 10 (48%)

 

Totals Signed 297 – 131 (44%)

 

Iowa

 

2014 Signed 19 - 02 (11%)

2013 Signed 21 - 05 (24%)

2012 Signed 24 - 07 (29%)

2011 Signed 24 - 09 (28%)

2010 Signed 21 - 08 (38%)

2009 Signed 20 - 13 (65%)

2008 Signed 25 - 12 (48%)

2007 Signed 22 - 09 (41%)

2006 Signed 21 - 07 (33%)

2005 Signed 23 - 13 (57%)

2004 Signed 21 - 07 (33%)

2003 Signed 22 - 11 (50%)

2002 Signed 22 - 10 (45%)

 

Totals Signed 285 – 113 (40%)

 

Maryland

 

2014 Signed 17 - 01 (06%)

2013 Signed 22 - 01 (05%)

2012 Signed 23 - 04 (17%)

2011 Signed 21 - 09 (43%)

2010 Signed 21 - 13 (62%)

2009 Signed 26 - 15 (58%)

2008 Signed 17 - 07 (41%)

2007 Signed 26 - 15 (58%)

2006 Signed 22 - 11 (50%)

2005 Signed 24 - 07 (29%)

2004 Signed 22 - 03 (14%)

2003 Signed 21 - 10 (48%)

2002 Signed 22 - 09 (41%)

 

Totals Signed 284 – 105 (37%)

 

Michigan

 

2014 Signed 16 - 01 (06%)

2013 Signed 27 - 02 (07%)

2012 Signed 25 - 01 (04%)

2011 Signed 20 - 11 (55%)

2010 Signed 27 - 20 (74%)

2009 Signed 22 - 09 (41%)

2008 Signed 25 - 12 (48%)

2007 Signed 20 - 08 (40%)

2006 Signed 19 - 07 (37%)

2005 Signed 23 - 12 (52%)

2004 Signed 22 - 09 (41%)

2003 Signed 17 - 07 (41%)

2002 Signed 20 - 07 (35%)

 

Totals Signed 283 – 106 (37%)

 

Michigan St

 

2014 Signed 22 - 00 (00%)

2013 Signed 18 - 02 (11%)

2012 Signed 18 - 03 (17%)

2011 Signed 22 - 04 (18%)

2010 Signed 21 - 06 (29%)

2009 Signed 23 - 07 (30%)

2008 Signed 21 - 13 (62%)

2007 Signed 23 - 10 (43%)

2006 Signed 25 - 12 (48%)

2005 Signed 26 - 06 (23%)

2004 Signed 31 - 19 (61%)

2003 Signed 21 - 12 (57%)

2002 Signed 22 - 09 (41%)

 

Totals Signed 293 – 103 (35%)

 

Minnesota

 

2014 Signed 20 - 02 (10%)

2013 Signed 19 - 03 (16%)

2012 Signed 27 - 04 (15%)

2011 Signed 23 - 06 (26%)

2010 Signed 25 - 15 (60%)

2009 Signed 20 - 11 (55%)

2008 Signed 29 - 11 (38%)

2007 Signed 24 - 14 (58%)

2006 Signed 22 - 12 (55%)

2005 Signed 20 - 12 (60%)

2004 Signed 24 - 15 (63%)

2003 Signed 27 - 11 (41%)

2002 Signed 24 - 11 (46%)

 

Totals Signed 304 – 127 (42%)

 

Nebraska

 

2014 Signed 24 - 04 (17%)

2013 Signed 25 - 07 (28%)

2012 Signed 17 - 04 (24%)

2011 Signed 19 - 06 (32%)

2010 Signed 22 - 11 (50%)

2009 Signed 20 - 08 (40%)

2008 Signed 28 - 12 (43%)

2007 Signed 27 - 12 (44%)

2006 Signed 22 - 06 (27%)

2005 Signed 30 - 11 (37%)

2004 Signed 20 - 05 (25%)

2003 Signed 19 - 09 (47%)

2002 Signed 21 - 11 (52%)

 

Totals Signed 294 – 106 (36%)

 

Northwestern

 

2014 Signed 15 - 00 (00%)

2013 Signed 19 - 01 (05%)

2012 Signed 21 - 03 (14%)

2011 Signed 17 - 00 (00%)

2010 Signed 17 - 04 (24%)

2009 Signed 18 - 12 (67%)

2008 Signed 20 - 08 (40%)

2007 Signed 19 - 02 (11%)

2006 Signed 17 - 04 (15%)

2005 Signed 20 - 04 (20%)

2004 Signed 14 - 05 (36%)

2003 Signed 22 - 05 (23%)

2002 Signed 22 - 09 (41%)

 

Totals Signed 241 – 57 (24%)

 

Ohio St

 

2014 Signed 23 - 01 (04%)

2013 Signed 24 - 03 (13%)

2012 Signed 25 - 09 (36%)

2011 Signed 24 - 07 (29%)

2010 Signed 19 - 11 (58%)

2009 Signed 25 - 11 (44%)

2008 Signed 20 - 07 (35%)

2007 Signed 15 - 04 (27%)

2006 Signed 20 - 04 (20%)

2005 Signed 18 - 03 (17%)

2004 Signed 24 - 08 (33%)

2003 Signed 15 - 09 (60%)

2002 Signed 25 - 06 (24%)

 

Totals Signed 277 – 83 (30%)

 

Penn St

 

2014 Signed 25 - 01 (04%)

2013 Signed 17 - 05 (29%)

2012 Signed 20 - 05 (25%)

2011 Signed 16 - 05 (31%)

2010 Signed 20 - 14 (70%)

2009 Signed 27 - 15 (56%)

2008 Signed 14 - 04 (29%)

2007 Signed 21 - 06 (29%)

2006 Signed 24 - 10 (42%)

2005 Signed 19 - 08 (42%)

2004 Signed 25 - 11 (44%)

2003 Signed 11 - 04 (36%)

2002 Signed 22 - 08 (36%)

 

Totals Signed 261 – 96 (37%)

 

Purdue

 

2014 Signed 17 - 02 (12%)

2013 Signed 23 - 03 (13%)

2012 Signed 26 - 05 (19%)

2011 Signed 15 - 04 (27%)

2010 Signed 23 - 09 (39%)

2009 Signed 20 - 07 (35%)

2008 Signed 26 - 09 (35%)

2007 Signed 19 - 09 (47%)

2006 Signed 27 - 09 (33%)

2005 Signed 21 - 10 (48%)

2004 Signed 27 - 10 (37%)

2003 Signed 25 - 15 (60%)

2002 Signed 25 - 09 (36%)

 

Totals Signed 294 – 100 (34%)

 

Rutgers

 

2014 Signed 25 - 01 (04%)

2013 Signed 22 - 05 (23%)

2012 Signed 19 - 04 (21%)

2011 Signed 24 - 12 (50%)

2010 Signed 24 - 10 (42%)

2009 Signed 23 - 10 (43%)

2008 Signed 20 - 08 (40%)

2007 Signed 23 - 10 (43%)

2006 Signed 25 - 11 (44%)

2005 Signed 26 - 12 (46%)

2004 Signed 23 - 11 (48%)

2003 Signed 25 - 12 (48%)

2002 Signed 24 - 07 (29%)

 

Totals Signed 303 – 113 (37%)

 

Wisconsin

 

2014 Signed 25 - 03 (12%)

2013 Signed 17 - 05 (29%)

2012 Signed 12 - 05 (42%)

2011 Signed 20 - 03 (15%)

2010 Signed 24 - 13 (54%)

2009 Signed 21 - 09 (43%)

2008 Signed 24 - 10 (42%)

2007 Signed 19 - 09 (50%)

2006 Signed 23 - 11 (48%)

2005 Signed 23 - 08 (35%)

2004 Signed 23 - 10 (43%)

2003 Signed 22 - 08 (36%)

2002 Signed 25 - 10 (40%)

 

Totals Signed 278 – 104 (37%)

 

Big 10 Totals Signed 3,995 – 1,466 (37%)

[MichiganDad3]

Every team in college football deals with attrition as well as injuries. The bottom line is that Nebraska has enough talent currently to beat every team that we've played. It's the decision making and personnel decisions that and the overall 'coaching' of this team that has been this teams true downfall. Enough with the excuses....

Exactly. Nebraska must be ranked in the bottom 25% now. There is no excuse for 2-4. We have not even played a decent team yet.

[lo country]

 

http://hamptonroads.com/2015/03/attrition-rates-tell-partial-tale-hokies-swoon-last-few-years

 

And we're done. Another myth debunked.

How dare you use facts on this board........ But, Riley is experienced.... He does more with less....... Once he gets better facilities........... One fact that is true. He currently sits at .498

 

In his defense, much like Frank, Cally and Bo, Riley has saddled himself with dead weight that are not helping him IMO. Might be a case that with better talent, facilities and staff, his managerial style can make a go of things....... For the program's sake, I hope he makes dome change and can get things going. My far is that as losses pile up, the already fragile psyche of the team gets worse and guys don't buy in at all to his system.....

[Danny Bateman]

If you wanna "debunk the myth," it's on you to do so.

 

The author was complaining about VaTech attrition, which over the span from '02-13 being discussed, was 39%. Same as NU.

 

Also, if you want me to just examine the upperclassmen only (ignoring the last two classes), which is what the author was doing, our attrition rate becomes 29/62 or 47%.

[AFhusker]

Every team in college football deals with attrition as well as injuries. The bottom line is that Nebraska has enough talent currently to beat every team that we've played. It's the decision making and personnel decisions that and the overall 'coaching' of this team that has been this teams true downfall. Enough with the excuses....

You are so wrong IDK why I even responded to your post. It's fans like you that are hurting this school. If you don't believe me go look up Keyson Jr's comments about how much he loved it here except for the ignorant fans in the stands that were bitching about MR and how he should be fired. That kid is more knowledgeable about how to build a college program than a lot of the supposed "greatest fans in college football."