MichiganDad3 Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Just an observation: This season we have 5 losses by a total of 13 points In 2014 we lost 4 games by a total of 47 points including a 35 point blowout In 2013 we lost 4 games by a total of 68 points In 2012 we lost 4 games by a total of 84 points including 25 point and 39 point blowouts In 2011 we lost 4 games by a total of 79 points with 31 and 28 point losses In 2010 we lost 4 games by a total of 25 points (7,3,3,12) In 2009 we lost 4 games by a total of 25 points (1, 21, by 2 to Iowa St, and 1 in the last second) In 2008 we lost 4 games by a total of 80 points with 35 point and 34 point blowouts The way I feel right now, I guess I see us as really close. We aren't getting blown out (yet), But we haven't played a team with a pulse yet. We could lose 7 or 8 games this year. I am not certain that we will beat Purdue, and that is sad. Quote Link to comment
Count 'Bility Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 You can go 6-6 and only lose those 6 by a total of 15 points. Fact of the matter: Great teams and coaches don't come up on the short end in those close games. exactly. This isnt a great team Would you consider Dantonio a great coach? http://www.fbschedules.com/ncaa-12/big-ten/2012-michigan-state-spartans-football-schedule.php 2 Quote Link to comment
Count 'Bility Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Whats closer to being reality? Riley 8-0 this year or Bo 4-8 in 2012 or 2013? Quote Link to comment
teachercd Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Just an observation: This season we have 5 losses by a total of 13 points In 2014 we lost 4 games by a total of 47 points including a 35 point blowout In 2013 we lost 4 games by a total of 68 points In 2012 we lost 4 games by a total of 84 points including 25 point and 39 point blowouts In 2011 we lost 4 games by a total of 79 points with 31 and 28 point losses In 2010 we lost 4 games by a total of 25 points (7,3,3,12) In 2009 we lost 4 games by a total of 25 points (1, 21, by 2 to Iowa St, and 1 in the last second) In 2008 we lost 4 games by a total of 80 points with 35 point and 34 point blowouts The way I feel right now, I guess I see us as really close. We aren't getting blown out (yet), But we haven't played a team with a pulse yet. We could lose 7 or 8 games this year. I am not certain that we will beat Purdue, and that is sad. Nor is Vegas... Quote Link to comment
It'sNotAFakeID Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Just an observation: This season we have 5 losses by a total of 13 points In 2014 we lost 4 games by a total of 47 points including a 35 point blowout In 2013 we lost 4 games by a total of 68 points In 2012 we lost 4 games by a total of 84 points including 25 point and 39 point blowouts In 2011 we lost 4 games by a total of 79 points with 31 and 28 point losses In 2010 we lost 4 games by a total of 25 points (7,3,3,12) In 2009 we lost 4 games by a total of 25 points (1, 21, by 2 to Iowa St, and 1 in the last second) In 2008 we lost 4 games by a total of 80 points with 35 point and 34 point blowouts The way I feel right now, I guess I see us as really close. We aren't getting blown out (yet), But we haven't played a team with a pulse yet. We could lose 7 or 8 games this year. I am not certain that we will beat Purdue, and that is sad. Every team we've played has been made up of living players who indeed have pulses. This statement is false. In other news, wasn't the Big Ten West rated better than the SEC East and a few other divisions? So we're playing tough teams (even if they don't look like it record-wise). Illinois? Shouldn't have lost to them. Northwestern/BYU/Miami? Should've probably went 2-1 in those games. Yeah, there's work to be done. But we should really cut down on the sky is falling nonsense. Quote Link to comment
Sargon Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Nor is Vegas... Vegas understands perfectly that NU has a 22% chance of losing to Purdue this week. And understood perfectly that NU had a 30-60% chance of losing each of the games they lost and Minn was nowhere near a lock. There are some posters here that either do NOT understand AT ALL that being favored by 3, or 7.5, is VERY different from a lock. No fan should ever be surprised if his team, favored by less than 15, loses (odds of losing at -15 spread are 12%) Quote Link to comment
teachercd Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Nor is Vegas...Vegas understands perfectly that NU has a 22% chance of losing to Purdue this week. And understood perfectly that NU had a 30-60% chance of losing each of the games they lost and Minn was nowhere near a lock.There are some posters here that either do NOT understand AT ALL that being favored by 3, or 7.5, is VERY different from a lock. No fan should ever be surprised if his team, favored by less than 15, loses (odds of losing at -15 spread are 12%) Quote Link to comment
teachercd Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Nor is Vegas...Vegas understands perfectly that NU has a 22% chance of losing to Purdue this week. And understood perfectly that NU had a 30-60% chance of losing each of the games they lost and Minn was nowhere near a lock.There are some posters here that either do NOT understand AT ALL that being favored by 3, or 7.5, is VERY different from a lock. No fan should ever be surprised if his team, favored by less than 15, loses (odds of losing at -15 spread are 12%) 30-60%...I love it! Keep posting! Quote Link to comment
Sho'nuff Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 7. Every single loss has been due to player execution and the defense being unable to stop the winning score. This is not debatable. All the play calls were the right calls. They have to execute the call. Ifs and buts candy and nuts. Seems like Saunders45 already said it better than I could. However, I just love it when somebody throws out an "opinion" and tries to shut everybody else up by telling us "this is not debatable". I wish the Huskerboard rules would be more clear about when somebody is or is not allowed to "debate" because I apparently missed reading that rule that says "When certain people say so, all debate is closed." Quote Link to comment
Sargon Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Nor is Vegas...Vegas understands perfectly that NU has a 22% chance of losing to Purdue this week. And understood perfectly that NU had a 30-60% chance of losing each of the games they lost and Minn was nowhere near a lock.There are some posters here that either do NOT understand AT ALL that being favored by 3, or 7.5, is VERY different from a lock. No fan should ever be surprised if his team, favored by less than 15, loses (odds of losing at -15 spread are 12%) 30-60%...I love it! Keep posting! Yes sir! Here ya go http://www.bettingtalk.com/win-probability-percentage-point-spread-nfl-nba/ Quote Link to comment
teachercd Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Nor is Vegas...Vegas understands perfectly that NU has a 22% chance of losing to Purdue this week. And understood perfectly that NU had a 30-60% chance of losing each of the games they lost and Minn was nowhere near a lock.There are some posters here that either do NOT understand AT ALL that being favored by 3, or 7.5, is VERY different from a lock. No fan should ever be surprised if his team, favored by less than 15, loses (odds of losing at -15 spread are 12%) 30-60%...I love it! Keep posting!Yes sir! Here ya gohttp://www.bettingtalk.com/win-probability-percentage-point-spread-nfl-nba/ Love that site..spread.com too. Do you bet a lot or just like looking? Quote Link to comment
Count 'Bility Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Hes not perfect but watching the nw game over i found numerous plays that shoulda went for six if a guy woulda just got a block. I really got a kick out of my 7 year old son making the comment on Cethan carters truck play that "dad, if that lineman woulda blocked him we woukda scored". Quote Link to comment
rasputzen Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 7. Every single loss has been due to player execution and the defense being unable to stop the winning score. This is not debatable because there is no possible way I can defend my point of view. All the play calls were the right calls. They have to execute the call. Ifs and buts candy and nuts. Fixed that for ya Quote Link to comment
Sargon Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 @teach....In my past, 2 different periods. I enjoyed it and won. Alas it's very difficult (lots of work...worse now since awesome analytics are available to anyone) to get a good enough edge to make it worth my (anyone's) time, IMO.More about how smart Vegas is ladies and gentlemen....NU is 4-4 vs. spread which means...ta-da...NU game results are as predicted!! And... 4 NU losses have been very close to the spread (byu game missed by 11ish) therefore NONE of those losses are in any way whatsoever a surprise to line setters. Miami and Wisc spreads were each 0.5 from the actual!! All 3 NU wins deviated more from the spread....twice NU played to well (lol) and once NU underperformed yet still won the game. DATE VS. SCORE LINE O/U09/05/15 BYU L 28-33 L -5.5 O 57.509/12/15 USA W 48-9 W -27.5 O 5409/19/15 @MIA L 33-36 x W 3.5 O 59.509/26/15 SOMIS W 36-28 L -20.5 U 64.510/03/15 @ILL L 13-14 L -3 U 5710/10/15 WIS L 21-23 W 2.5 U 5210/17/15 @MINN W 48-25 W PK O 4710/24/15 NW L 28-30 L -7 O 50 Quote Link to comment
teachercd Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 @teach....In my past, 2 different periods. I enjoyed it and won. Alas it's very difficult (lots of work...worse now since awesome analytics are available to anyone) to get a good enough edge to make it worth my (anyone's) time, IMO. More about how smart Vegas is ladies and gentlemen....NU is 4-4 vs. spread which means...ta-da...NU game results are as predicted!! And... 4 NU losses have been very close to the spread (byu game missed by 11ish) therefore NONE of those losses are in any way whatsoever a surprise to line setters. Miami and Wisc spreads were each 0.5 from the actual!! All 3 NU wins deviated more from the spread....twice NU played to well (lol) and once NU underperformed yet still won the game. DATE VS. SCORE LINE O/U 09/05/15 BYU L 28-33 L -5.5 O 57.5 09/12/15 USA W 48-9 W -27.5 O 54 09/19/15 @MIA L 33-36 x W 3.5 O 59.5 09/26/15 SOMIS W 36-28 L -20.5 U 64.5 10/03/15 @ILL L 13-14 L -3 U 57 10/10/15 WIS L 21-23 W 2.5 U 52 10/17/15 @MINN W 48-25 W PK O 47 10/24/15 NW L 28-30 L -7 O 50 In your past? Does that mean you got married and you can't bet anymore (even money bet haha) What was or how did you make your picks? I am a volume better...so...the worst kind of better you can be basically Quote Link to comment
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