xkcd: Earth Temperature Timeline

[zoogs]

http://xkcd.com/1732/

 

Because this is, unfortunately, a bit of a political topic. Randall Munroe does some phenomenal work. This is an important visualization.

 

 

 

[cm husker]

That is an interesting table, even just from an historical timeline perspective.

 

It does beg the question: what happens if we stay on the current path?

 

That's important because "massive action to limit emissions" will cost human lives in developing (and even developed) nations.

[BigRedBuster]

The timeline tells me there is a very small chance we stay on current path.

[Mavric]

So we're warmer now than we were during the last ice age? Is that supposed to be a bad thing?

 

And I'm pretty sure most reading have show slower/leveled warming over the last 15 years or so. Why does his graph have a spike?

[zoogs]

No, everything's fine.

[huskerfan2000]

The timeline tells me there is a very small chance we stay on current path.

 

yeah, that damn climate, always changing

[ZRod]

That is an interesting table, even just from an historical timeline perspective.

 

It does beg the question: what happens if we stay on the current path?

 

That's important because "massive action to limit emissions" will cost human lives in developing (and even developed) nations.

Every decision made on any topic costs lives at some level. That is a red herring.

 

 

 

So we're warmer now than we were during the last ice age? Is that supposed to be a bad thing?And I'm pretty sure most reading have show slower/leveled warming over the last 15 years or so. Why does his graph have a spike?

NASA Study Finds There Was No "Pause" In Climate Change

The study, published in Science, observed two decades of data and found that the Earths extra heat was being redistributed by the worlds largest oceans. Researchers found that cooling in the top 100-meter layer of the Pacific Ocean was mainly compensated by warming in the 100- to 300-meter layer of the Indian and Pacific Oceans.

 

Our findings support the idea that the Indo-Pacific interaction in the upper-level water (0300 m depth) regulated global surface temperature over the past two decades and can fully account for the recently observed hiatus, researchers wrote in the paper.

 

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/blogs/earthmatters/2015/06/05/parsing-the-details-of-the-warming-hiatus/

[cm husker]

 

That is an interesting table, even just from an historical timeline perspective.

 

It does beg the question: what happens if we stay on the current path?

 

That's important because "massive action to limit emissions" will cost human lives in developing (and even developed) nations.

Every decision made on any topic costs lives at some level. That is a red herring.

 

 

 

It's not a red herring. It's the core issue when assessing whether we should sacrifice current improvements and global progress to stave off future risks.

 

The problem with some is that they stop their analysis at "is the world warming" and never ask "what is the actual consequence of a warming trend."

[ZRod]

 

 

That is an interesting table, even just from an historical timeline perspective.

 

It does beg the question: what happens if we stay on the current path?

 

That's important because "massive action to limit emissions" will cost human lives in developing (and even developed) nations.

 

Every decision made on any topic costs lives at some level. That is a red herring.

 

It's not a red herring. It's the core issue when assessing whether we should sacrifice current improvements and global progress to stave off future risks.

 

The problem with some is that they stop their analysis at "is the world warming" and never ask "what is the actual consequence of a warming trend."

It is a red herring when it distracts from the issue. People will die either way.

[cm husker]

 

 

 

That is an interesting table, even just from an historical timeline perspective.

 

It does beg the question: what happens if we stay on the current path?

 

That's important because "massive action to limit emissions" will cost human lives in developing (and even developed) nations.

Every decision made on any topic costs lives at some level. That is a red herring.

 

It's not a red herring. It's the core issue when assessing whether we should sacrifice current improvements and global progress to stave off future risks.

 

The problem with some is that they stop their analysis at "is the world warming" and never ask "what is the actual consequence of a warming trend."

It is a red herring when it distracts from the issue. People will die either way.

 

 

 

Will people die either way? What is the evidence that people will die if there's a 2 deg increase in temp versus the historic average?

 

Number of people dying is the issue, and I think a "massive action to limit emissions" will absolutely cost lives in developing US communities and foreign nations.

 

Then again, it's hard to even envision what such an initiative means in real terms. Meaningful enforcement of such restrictions seems like fantasy.

[cm husker]

Here's an article that claims 500k per year world wide could die due to global warming's impact on food production.

 

My question is, how many will die if they can't get access to food due to restriction on energy use? Based on history in Ethiopia and China, I think many more than 500k.

 

That calculation is anything but a red herring.

 

And I find the 500k estimate suspect, as it's pretty tangential... it's not saying that global warming will cause starvation, but rather that a change in nutrients may lead to earlier death by other disease.

 

Here's another article, which contains conclusions that suffer from the same lack of perspective: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2009/may/29/1

[ZRod]

I am utterly confused at what you are trying to argue. You link does not follow youe logic.

[cm husker]

My links are based on me trying to figure out the risks associated with global warming. When I read them, I see some tenuous conclusions and no examination, or even mention of, the lives put at risk by cutting emissions back.

 

I also have seen no credible argument about how such restrictions could be effectively enforced.

[ZRod]

My links are based on me trying to figure out the risks associated with global warming. When I read them, I see some tenuous conclusions and no examination, or even mention of, the lives put at risk by cutting emissions back.

I also have seen no credible argument about how such restrictions could be effectively enforced.

Probably because engineers are capable of developing new technologies that are more efficient with out major sacrifices. We enforce clean air and water acts now, I'm sure we could find a way to enforce green house gas regulations.

[Mavric]

 

That is an interesting table, even just from an historical timeline perspective.

 

It does beg the question: what happens if we stay on the current path?

 

That's important because "massive action to limit emissions" will cost human lives in developing (and even developed) nations.

Every decision made on any topic costs lives at some level. That is a red herring.

 

 

 

So we're warmer now than we were during the last ice age? Is that supposed to be a bad thing?And I'm pretty sure most reading have show slower/leveled warming over the last 15 years or so. Why does his graph have a spike?

NASA Study Finds There Was No "Pause" In Climate Change

The study, published in Science, observed two decades of data and found that the Earths extra heat was being redistributed by the worlds largest oceans. Researchers found that cooling in the top 100-meter layer of the Pacific Ocean was mainly compensated by warming in the 100- to 300-meter layer of the Indian and Pacific Oceans.

 

Our findings support the idea that the Indo-Pacific interaction in the upper-level water (0300 m depth) regulated global surface temperature over the past two decades and can fully account for the recently observed hiatus, researchers wrote in the paper.

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/blogs/earthmatters/2015/06/05/parsing-the-details-of-the-warming-hiatus/

 

 

Or not

 

The cold waters of Earth’s deep ocean have not warmed measurably since 2005, according to a new NASA study, leaving unsolved the mystery of why global warming appears to have slowed in recent years.

Scientists at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in Pasadena, California, analyzed satellite and direct ocean temperature data from 2005 to 2013 and found the ocean abyss below 1.24 miles (1,995 meters) has not warmed measurably.

 

Link