I think you're being overly pessimistic. Your assumption that Iowa will be clearly favored is a head scratcher to me. I think there is also a built in bias against your own team because you watch them closely and see every flaw while you virtually ignore the lousy play of other teams.....even when you're playing them and their own fans are commenting about how much their players are stinking it up.
The one thing I've noticed about this team is they respond to encouragement and fan support. It's one thing to say hey they need to fix this or that and completely another to act like losing is likely before they've even stepped on the field. These guys have a lot of fight to them, the defense keeps stepping up and getting tougher, the offense has the talent and ability to not get in the rut where Tommy scrambles all over and makes wild throws....some of them are already asking for the ball, others (DPE ,Morgan, Reilly) need to get in the habit. We have ways of keeping them from hounding Tommy the way Indiana did....we need to use them.
Ohio State looks pretty tough......the rest look beatable.
But first, let's not take Purdue lightly.