B.B. Hemingway

Why take a crap offer when it doesn't matter who they schedule?  Their conference is not strong enough, that's been proven.  They could schedule 2 SEC teams and they'd still get left out.  Smartest thing to do is schedule however you want and hope you get an invite to a better league.

If UCF plays and beats a playoff worthy team in their non-con they’ll get in. The problem is their best non-con wins the last 2 years were 8-5 FIU and 7-6 Pitt. Throw in an FCS team both years and the fact that both years they’ve only played 11 regular season games, both of their cancelled games being against (admittedly poor) P5 opponents and I don’t know how you can reasonably argue they’ve played a playoff worthy schedule.

UCF doesn’t have a win against a top 25 team this year and their highest rated opponent according to Sagarin is Cincy at 39. Heck 3 AAC opponents they’ve beaten are ahead of Pitt in the Sagarin.

No they wouldn't.  The playoff is huge money.  Sexy name will always trump scrappy underdog and they will always have a way to justify it.