VA Husker Fan Posted December 14, 2009 Share Posted December 14, 2009 Then I hope someone will take me up on the bet. I'll even let them take 25 ** players to my 20. If stars don't matter, that's a huge advantage, even the casinos don't take this big of an edge in most of their games. I don't think anybody here is opinionated on this topic enough to bet on it. On the contrary, I think anyone who believes that stars matter would bet on my side. Getting anyone to bet the other side is a different story. That says a lot right there. Quote Link to comment
EZ-E Posted December 14, 2009 Share Posted December 14, 2009 A few of the things that stars dont take into account are: character, work ethic, heart, drive, and ability to learn a new system quickly. Under that criteria there Rex Burkhead would have been a 5 star kid. Quote Link to comment
typ3kal Posted December 14, 2009 Share Posted December 14, 2009 Then I hope someone will take me up on the bet. I'll even let them take 25 ** players to my 20. If stars don't matter, that's a huge advantage, even the casinos don't take this big of an edge in most of their games. I don't think anybody here is opinionated on this topic enough to bet on it. On the contrary, I think anyone who believes that stars matter would bet on my side. Getting anyone to bet the other side is a different story. That says a lot right there. In this year's rivals class there are 22 5 star players, The probability of a 5 star player based on last years top 10 in the draft being drafted is, 18.2%. In this year's rivals class there are 978 2 star players per rivals in 2010. The probability of a 5 star player based on last years top 10 in the draft being drafted is, 0.5% For being an all American in 2010, it's a 13.6% Chance for 5 Stars. 3.6% Chance for 4 Stars. 1.1% Chance for 3 Stars. 0.5% Chance for 2 Stars. Yup rankings don't matter. Hopefully this ends the ranking/stars debate. Quote Link to comment
epocSoN Posted December 14, 2009 Share Posted December 14, 2009 My point in the whole thing was that people shouldn't be upset because are taking 3 star kids. Many of them can become great athletes under the right coaching staff. Quote Link to comment
typ3kal Posted December 14, 2009 Share Posted December 14, 2009 My point in the whole thing was that people shouldn't be upset because are taking 3 star kids. Many of them can become great athletes under the right coaching staff. Exactly, many kids are under recruited / under hyped. 5 Star players on average are better than 4 stars, 4 stars are on average better than 3 and so on. There are tons and tons of exceptions. Quote Link to comment
epocSoN Posted December 14, 2009 Share Posted December 14, 2009 I don't care either way on this debate, but I'm trying to put off studying for a final so I looked at Husker Rivals ratings since 2002, and here are some of the notables I saw. Lived up to the hype: DeMorrio Williams :star :star Jay Moore :star :star Fabian Washington :star :star Bo Ruud :star :star Lydon Murtha :star :star Zachary Bowman :star :star (I guess) Zach Potter :star :star Steve Octavien :star :star Maurice Purify :star :star Larry Asante :star :star Overhyped: David Horne :star :star Mark LeFlore :star :star Josh Mueller :star :star Cortney Grixby :star :star Marlon Lucky :star :star Herrison Beck :star :star Chris Brooks :star :star Rodney Picou :star :star Andrew Jones :star :star Zac Lee :star :star Underhyped Adam Carriker :star Matt Herian :star Andrew Shanle Brandon Jackson :star Nate Swift :star Terrence Nunn :star (He should have gotten at least another star for dating a playmate) Ty Steinkuhler :star Joe Ganz :star Ndamukong Suh :star :star Barry Turner :star Cody Glenn :star Pierre Allen :star Mike McNeill :star Prince Amukamara :star Jared Crick :star Quote Link to comment
VA Husker Fan Posted December 14, 2009 Share Posted December 14, 2009 I don't care that much either, but if you're going to list the 4 & 5 * players that didn't live up to the hype, you ought to list the 2 & 3 * players who rarely sniffed the field. There are a lot of them. Quote Link to comment
VA Husker Fan Posted December 14, 2009 Share Posted December 14, 2009 One more thing...you have Brandon Jackson as an underhyped 3*, and Marlon Lucky as an overhyped 5*. So even an underachieving 5* can be better than overachieving 3*. Quote Link to comment
teachercd Posted December 14, 2009 Share Posted December 14, 2009 Then I hope someone will take me up on the bet. I'll even let them take 25 ** players to my 20. If stars don't matter, that's a huge advantage, even the casinos don't take this big of an edge in most of their games. I don't think anybody here is opinionated on this topic enough to bet on it. On the contrary, I think anyone who believes that stars matter would bet on my side. Getting anyone to bet the other side is a different story. That says a lot right there. In this year's rivals class there are 22 5 star players, The probability of a 5 star player based on last years top 10 in the draft being drafted is, 18.2%. In this year's rivals class there are 978 2 star players per rivals in 2010. The probability of a 5 star player based on last years top 10 in the draft being drafted is, 0.5% For being an all American in 2010, it's a 13.6% Chance for 5 Stars. 3.6% Chance for 4 Stars. 1.1% Chance for 3 Stars. 0.5% Chance for 2 Stars. Yup rankings don't matter. Hopefully this ends the ranking/stars debate. Huh? There are so many less 5 star guys that if one makes the team of course the % goes way up. You do know that you can make stats show almost anything you want right? Look, 5 star guys are great, dont get me wrong but you are acting like if you dont have 22 of them you wont win. Quote Link to comment
teachercd Posted December 14, 2009 Share Posted December 14, 2009 OK, so randomly pick 20 ** players out of this years graduating high school seniors, and randomly pick 20 ***** players for me. In 4 years, I pay you $100 for every one of yours that makes all american or gets drafted, and you do the same for me. Is there anyone who truly believes that stars don't matter enough to take that bet? I will take it if you give me 3 star guys, which I think is fair. Quote Link to comment
teachercd Posted December 14, 2009 Share Posted December 14, 2009 Last Years NFL Draft and their Rivals Rankings... 1. Detroit: QB Matthew Stafford College: Georgia Rating: No. 2 QB … 5 stars Offers: Michigan and Texas Comment: Was ranked behind Mitch Mustain, who started at Arkansas and is now on USC’s bench, and one spot ahead of … Tim Tebow. Also in that ‘06 QB class: Jake Locker (7th), Josh Freeman (15th) and Sam Bradford (17th). 2. St. Louis: OT Jason Smith College: Baylor Rating: Not rated … 2 stars Offers: No schools listed. Comment: That doesn’t necessarily mean Smith’s only offer was from Baylor, but it might mean that — and it sure means that a bunch of elite programs missed out. 3. Kansas City: DE Tyson Jackson College: LSU Rating: No. 120 … 2 stars Offers: Oklahoma State Comment: Was an offensive lineman in high school and projected to play there in college (and rated as such). 4. Seattle: OLB Aaron Curry College: Wake Forest Rating: Not rated … 2 stars Offers: East Carolina and Mississippi State Comment: Someone on the Wake staff made a brilliant evaluation. 5. NY Jets: QB Mark Sanchez College: USC Rating: No. 1 … 5 stars Offers: Notre Dame, Ohio State and Texas Comment: Tough for a gifted QB to fly under the radar, especially a gifted QB from Southern California. 6. Cincinnati: OT Andre Smith College: Alabama Rating: No. 1 … 5 stars Offers: Florida, LSU and USC Comment: If Urban Meyer and Pete Carroll are after the same kid, chances are that he’s the real deal. 7. Oakland: WR Darrius Heyward-Bey College: Maryland Rating: No. 39 … 3 stars Offers: Virginia Tech, Pitt, Penn State and Boston College (plus others). Comment: Might turn out to be the 39th best player in this draft, too. 8. Jacksonville: OT Eugene Monroe College: Virginia Rating: No. 1 … 5 stars Offers: Florida State, Miami, Ohio State and USC Comment: Education must have really, really mattered to Monroe. 9. Green Bay: DT B.J. Raji College: Boston College Rating: Not rated … 2 stars Offers: Nobody but BC. Comment: A Jersey kid, he visited Rutgers but didn’t get an offer. 10. San Francisco: WR Michael Crabtree College: Texas Tech Rating: Not rated … 2 stars Offers: Illinois, Iowa and Kansas Comment: The Dallas native played QB in high school but was projected as a receiver in college. Didn’t have Texas on his short list. ------------ Not to fuel the fire or anything... Well if this doenst sum it up then I dont know what will! Nice work! Quote Link to comment
teachercd Posted December 14, 2009 Share Posted December 14, 2009 Last Years NFL Draft and their Rivals Rankings... 1. Detroit: QB Matthew Stafford College: Georgia Rating: No. 2 QB … 5 stars Offers: Michigan and Texas Comment: Was ranked behind Mitch Mustain, who started at Arkansas and is now on USC’s bench, and one spot ahead of … Tim Tebow. Also in that ‘06 QB class: Jake Locker (7th), Josh Freeman (15th) and Sam Bradford (17th). 2. St. Louis: OT Jason Smith College: Baylor Rating: Not rated … 2 stars Offers: No schools listed. Comment: That doesn’t necessarily mean Smith’s only offer was from Baylor, but it might mean that — and it sure means that a bunch of elite programs missed out. 3. Kansas City: DE Tyson Jackson College: LSU Rating: No. 120 … 2 stars Offers: Oklahoma State Comment: Was an offensive lineman in high school and projected to play there in college (and rated as such). 4. Seattle: OLB Aaron Curry College: Wake Forest Rating: Not rated … 2 stars Offers: East Carolina and Mississippi State Comment: Someone on the Wake staff made a brilliant evaluation. 5. NY Jets: QB Mark Sanchez College: USC Rating: No. 1 … 5 stars Offers: Notre Dame, Ohio State and Texas Comment: Tough for a gifted QB to fly under the radar, especially a gifted QB from Southern California. 6. Cincinnati: OT Andre Smith College: Alabama Rating: No. 1 … 5 stars Offers: Florida, LSU and USC Comment: If Urban Meyer and Pete Carroll are after the same kid, chances are that he’s the real deal. 7. Oakland: WR Darrius Heyward-Bey College: Maryland Rating: No. 39 … 3 stars Offers: Virginia Tech, Pitt, Penn State and Boston College (plus others). Comment: Might turn out to be the 39th best player in this draft, too. 8. Jacksonville: OT Eugene Monroe College: Virginia Rating: No. 1 … 5 stars Offers: Florida State, Miami, Ohio State and USC Comment: Education must have really, really mattered to Monroe. 9. Green Bay: DT B.J. Raji College: Boston College Rating: Not rated … 2 stars Offers: Nobody but BC. Comment: A Jersey kid, he visited Rutgers but didn’t get an offer. 10. San Francisco: WR Michael Crabtree College: Texas Tech Rating: Not rated … 2 stars Offers: Illinois, Iowa and Kansas Comment: The Dallas native played QB in high school but was projected as a receiver in college. Didn’t have Texas on his short list. ------------ Not to fuel the fire or anything... Well if this doenst sum it up then I dont know what will! Nice work! Quote Link to comment
typ3kal Posted December 14, 2009 Share Posted December 14, 2009 Then I hope someone will take me up on the bet. I'll even let them take 25 ** players to my 20. If stars don't matter, that's a huge advantage, even the casinos don't take this big of an edge in most of their games. I don't think anybody here is opinionated on this topic enough to bet on it. On the contrary, I think anyone who believes that stars matter would bet on my side. Getting anyone to bet the other side is a different story. That says a lot right there. In this year's rivals class there are 22 5 star players, The probability of a 5 star player based on last years top 10 in the draft being drafted is, 18.2%. In this year's rivals class there are 978 2 star players per rivals in 2010. The probability of a 5 star player based on last years top 10 in the draft being drafted is, 0.5% For being an all American in 2010, it's a 13.6% Chance for 5 Stars. 3.6% Chance for 4 Stars. 1.1% Chance for 3 Stars. 0.5% Chance for 2 Stars. Yup rankings don't matter. Hopefully this ends the ranking/stars debate. Huh? There are so many less 5 star guys that if one makes the team of course the % goes way up. You do know that you can make stats show almost anything you want right? Look, 5 star guys are great, dont get me wrong but you are acting like if you dont have 22 of them you wont win. I never said a team needs all 22 5 star players, or even one of them. Saying the ranking system is worthless is a an ignorant comment. Yes there are less 5 star players therefore making the all-american team raises the percentage, but that only proves my point more. Accuracy ratings of highschool players isn't a science, but the fact that you can take 20 some players annually and say with certainty that 20-10% of them will become all-americans is pretty damn good. Considering there are nearly 14,000 division 1 players at any time in the nation, I'll take my odds with a 5 star over any joe schmoe, but the fact is any 4 star, 3 star or even 2 star can be molded into excellent football players; it is merely less likely the lower you go down the list because it is harder to rank the intangibles. Quote Link to comment
VA Husker Fan Posted December 14, 2009 Share Posted December 14, 2009 OK, so randomly pick 20 ** players out of this years graduating high school seniors, and randomly pick 20 ***** players for me. In 4 years, I pay you $100 for every one of yours that makes all american or gets drafted, and you do the same for me. Is there anyone who truly believes that stars don't matter enough to take that bet? I will take it if you give me 3 star guys, which I think is fair. Oh, you are on. In fact since you thought last years NFL draft sums it up so well, let's figure out a way to do random picks of the recruiting class from 4 years before and see how it turns out, so we don't have to wait for 4 years. Or take the year of your choice. All we need is a list of all of the 3 and 5 star recruits from then and some fair way of randomly picking them, like using the last digits of the future stock market indices or something else that is unpredictable. For example, the Dow closed on Friday at 10,471.50. If there were 1000 in your pool to look at we'd use the last 3 digits and pick number 150 off your list. If there are 100 in my pool we'd use the last 2 digists and pick number 50. Choose the number of indices to use and for how many days in the future to pick your 25 and my 20, and we'd have our random lists. Then see how many off of each list got drafted. Quote Link to comment
AndyDufresne Posted December 14, 2009 Share Posted December 14, 2009 OK, so randomly pick 20 ** players out of this years graduating high school seniors, and randomly pick 20 ***** players for me. In 4 years, I pay you $100 for every one of yours that makes all american or gets drafted, and you do the same for me. Is there anyone who truly believes that stars don't matter enough to take that bet? I will take it if you give me 3 star guys, which I think is fair. Oh, you are on. In fact since you thought last years NFL draft sums it up so well, let's figure out a way to do random picks of the recruiting class from 4 years before and see how it turns out, so we don't have to wait for 4 years. Or take the year of your choice. All we need is a list of all of the 3 and 5 star recruits from then and some fair way of randomly picking them, like using the last digits of the future stock market indices or something else that is unpredictable. For example, the Dow closed on Friday at 10,471.50. If there were 1000 in your pool to look at we'd use the last 3 digits and pick number 150 off your list. If there are 100 in my pool we'd use the last 2 digists and pick number 50. Choose the number of indices to use and for how many days in the future to pick your 25 and my 20, and we'd have our random lists. Then see how many off of each list got drafted. It sure is a good thing that our coaches don't just pick random 2-star and 3-star players to offer instead of doing research and evaluations. Quote Link to comment
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.