CFN.com's Big 12 Bold Prediction

[HuskerfaninOkieland]

CFN.com

 

GAME OF THE WEEK

 

Texas (3-2) at Nebraska (5-0) Oct. 16, 3:30, ABC

 

Here’s The Deal … 1999. Mack Brown’s second year at the helm. That’s the last time Texas has lost three games in a row, dropping its final three of that season, and it’s going to take the team’s best performance of the year to stop the suddenly ugly slide that began with a brutal home loss to UCLA and continued with a decent fight in a Red River Rivalry defeat to Oklahoma. To take a season is half full approach; the Longhorns could quickly become a factor again in the Big 12 title chase with a win this week. With five of the final six games at home, and with the lone road game at Kansas State, they could go on a big-time run if they can pull off the upset and ruin Nebraska’s dream season.

 

While all the talk and all the discussion might center around a revenge factor and a rematch of the 2009 Big 12 Championship, these are two very, very different teams than the ones battling it out in last December’s classic. Texas can’t find its offensive groove without Colt McCoy, Nebraska has an offense with Taylor Martinez suddenly on everyone’s Heisman list, and Ndamukong Suh isn’t planted on the Husker defensive front anymore. This time around, Nebraska is the favorite with everything to lose, and this time around, it’s expected to come up with the biggest win by far in the Bo Pelini era.

 

It’s all about the schedule with the Huskers. There’s no Oklahoma to deal with, Texas and Missouri come to Lincoln, and the two tough road games are at Oklahoma State and Texas A&M, which are must wins for anyone good enough to even think about playing for the national title. Nebraska has been dominant so far against mediocre competition, ruining Jake Locker’s No. 1 overall draft status in a 56-21 blowout at Washington and running all over Kansas State last week on national TV, but there’s still the wait-and-see approach with this team. If it’s really national title good, it drills a struggling Texas team and thrusts itself into the mix with Ohio State and Oregon as the BCS teams with the best chance to get to Glendale. The college football world needs something to hang its Nebraska hat on, and as wounded as the Longhorns might be, this would be it.

 

Why Texas Might Win: Taylor Martinez is still a redshirt freshman, and the Texas defense has had two weeks to prepare for him. Stopping the spread is a little like stopping the triple option; you need a defense with athletes, discipline, and the time to prepare how to handle the quirks of the attack. Fast defensive front sevens can negate a pure running offense by getting into the backfield and stopping the plays before they start, and Texas, as usual, is fantastic at getting behind the line ranking ninth in the nation in sacks, and most importantly in this game, is second in tackles for loss. Martinez isn’t going to hurt the Longhorns with his arm or the passing game, and he’s going to have to make quick decisions without the time to wait for the hole to develop before taking off. Think of this like Denard Robinson vs. Michigan State last week. The Spartans were able to force Robinson to one side and bottle him up, and then waited for him to make mistakes with the passing game. For the first time all year, Robinson faced a real defense, and he struggled. Martinez isn’t going to have room to move against a run D that stunk against UCLA, but has been fantastic against everyone else. As long as the Texas offense doesn’t make a slew of big mistakes, this game will be close throughout.

 

Why Nebraska Might Win: The Texas offense will make a slew of big mistakes. The Longhorns lost to UCLA because they gave the ball away five times, and they’ve turned it over 11 times in the first five games while the defense hasn’t always picked up the slack. Nebraska has been stingy in turnover margin, and as long as it isn’t -2, it should be fine. No, the Husker offense isn’t going to run wild on the Texas defense, but the Longhorn offense might not go anywhere against a pass defense that ranks No. 1 in America allowing just 128 yards per game with 11 interceptions and allowing just four touchdown passes, with two from Idaho. The secondary doesn’t allow anything deep, and while it’ll allow a few dinks and dunks, there aren’t any yards after the catch. Considering the Texas running game has been mediocre at best, non-existent at worst, and while this Suh-less Nebraska defensive front can be run on, it’s not going to give up the 250 yards Texas will need to move the chains.

 

What To Watch Out For: At 6-0 and 215 pounds, Lavonte Davis is built more like a safety than a bruising linebacker, but the star JUCO transfer and Miami native has been a major playmaker for the Husker defense from day one. He kicked off his career with 13 tackles against Western Kentucky and has been all over the field the last two weeks with 19 tackles against South Dakota State and 16 against Kansas State. Considering the line has been so shockingly average, he’ll need to have another double-digit stop game against the UT ground game. For Texas, it’s time for Garrett Gilbert to show that he can play. With all the focus on “T-Magic” on the other side, Gilbert has been the forgotten man in the equation. He wasn’t awful against Oklahoma, but has didn’t throw any touchdown passes and has thrown five picks in his last three games. Nebraska is going to take its chances against the Longhorn passing game and will sell out against the run, and Gilbert has to be ready to take advantage of the opportunities. He hasn’t been able to yet this year.

 

What Will Happen: It’s not exactly going to be the statement that Nebraska might be looking to make, but its defense will make life awful for Gilbert and the Texas running game won’t be able to carry its weight. Martinez will have his worst game of the season, by far, and will make a few big mistakes to keep Texas in the game, but the Longhorn offense won’t go anywhere and the Huskers will slip by with PK Alex Henery coming up with an All-America performance with a few bombs and a late kick to put the game away.

 

CFN Prediction: Nebraska 22 … Texas 16 … Line: Nebraska -9.5

 

Must See Rating: Jackass 3D – 5 … The Promise: The Making of Darkness on the Edge of Town -1 … 5

[Manhattan]

A bold prediction sort of has to have Texas winning...

[Moiraine]

he’s going to have to make quick decisions without the time to wait for the hole to develop before taking off.

 

What To Watch Out For:Lavonte Davis

 

 

When has Martinez ever "waited"? He just goes. I shouldn't nitpick but I can't help it

[Blackshirt316]

If they really think he D-Line has been average they clearly are missing the point of our defense.

[haymarkethomer]

CFN.com

 

What To Watch Out For: Lavonte Davis

 

Lavonte Who?

[GSG]

That's two weeks in a row that they called him Lavonte Davis

[papersun87]

What Will Happen: It’s not exactly going to be the statement that Nebraska might be looking to make, but its defense will make life awful for Gilbert and the Texas running game won’t be able to carry its weight. Martinez will have his worst game of the season, by far, and will make a few big mistakes to keep Texas in the game, but the Longhorn offense won’t go anywhere and the Huskers will slip by with PK Alex Henery coming up with an All-America performance with a few bombs and a late kick to put the game away. [/i]

[mnhusker]

Good read but I will not sign up to the statement that a fast D is the solution to stopping an Zone Read Attack ...... If we execute the fast D will still be fast to the wrong spot. Tom O. showed that execution will beat a fast D many times. The fast D may help beat us but is by no means is guaranteed to be a shut down.

[gobiggergoredder]

If they really think he D-Line has been average they clearly are missing the point of our defense.

 

 

I agree. This defensive line, as well as the rest of the defense, appears to be progressing like last year. They really didn't start playing lights out until mid year. The front 4 against KSUX was starting to get a good push. This is what we need to look for, not big plays. When they can get solid pressure with the 4 down lineman, it's going to get ugly for everyone.

[ESPY]

Taylor Martinez is still a redshirt freshman, and the Texas defense has had two weeks to prepare for him. Stopping the spread is a little like stopping the triple option; you need a defense with athletes, discipline, and the time to prepare how to handle the quirks of the attack. Fast defensive front sevens can negate a pure running offense by getting into the backfield and stopping the plays before they start, and Texas, as usual, is fantastic at getting behind the line ranking ninth in the nation in sacks, and most importantly in this game, is second in tackles for loss.

These are all very valid points. No doubt the success of our offense hinges just as much on the offensive line and the Huskers' overall blocking effort as it does the feet of Martinez, Helu and Rex. The O-line absolutely must execute on every down if it plans to neutralize such a dangerous Texas Dline.