Tim Donaghy and official bias

[JTrain]

A lot of you probably know the Tim Donaghy story. He was an NBA ref who was caught betting on NBA games. The FBI investigated and concluded that his gambling winning percentage was around 75%. Anyone who is familiar with sports betting knows that 55% is a good bettor, 60% is a great bettor. Anything above that, in the long term at least, is almost unheard of.

 

So how did he do it? He swears never to have fixed a game. His method was simple. He would call other officials that he knew and was friends with prior to games they (not Donaghy) were officiating and simply have a friendly discussion about the game. He would get a sense for players that they personally didn't like and players they did like. Just from this information, he was able to have frighteningly high success rates betting against the spread.

 

Keep in mind that NBA refs are some of the most highly paid sports officials in the world. Almost all of them make over $100K and many of the veterans earn $200K or more. They are expected to perform at an extremely high level, and of course removing bias is a requirement of any official at any level of sports. If these officials' performances can be so significantly clouded by personal bias, what does that say about refs at lower levels?

 

I don't have any official numbers, but I don't imagine FBS officials make much more than $35-40K a year. It would be expected that they let bias slip in as much or more as the supposedly elite NBA refs. Now consider that the NBA refs allowed bias based on petty personality issues they had with players. Big 12 refs have much deeper reasons to dislike Nebraska. Nebraska's bolting for the Big 10 started a domino effect which very nearly led to the collapse of the Big 12. Most of these refs would be forced to find jobs in other conferences, lower levels of football, or look for another line of work altogether.

 

So even if you don't buy into any outright conspiracy theory, you would be silly to deny that some very significant bias is at play here (the numbers show this), and it cost us the game last night.

[Sparker]

Good riddance, Big XII refs.

[WYHusk]

Astute analysis and likely true.

[Count 'Bility]

Astute analysis and likely true.

There's no likely to it, it's a fact

The whole country now knows what we've known for weeks, tho many still do not want to admit it.

[DJR313]

Most referees have a regular job and pick this up over the weekend. I had a professor at UNO that is an NFL referee. I am not sure how you tie Tim Donaghy to your point here. Are you insinuating that Big 12 refs are betting on games, and that they are betting against Nebraska? I don't see that point, considering the Huskers have hit the spread almost 50% of the games this year, either 6-5 or 5-6.

[HuskerNMO]

Most referees have a regular job and pick this up over the weekend. I had a professor at UNO that is an NFL referee. I am not sure how you tie Tim Donaghy to your point here. Are you insinuating that Big 12 refs are betting on games, and that they are betting against Nebraska? I don't see that point, considering the Huskers have hit the spread almost 50% of the games this year, either 6-5 or 5-6.

 

He's saying that all refs are biased in a certain way and other refs know that will affect the outcome of some games. Donaghy used that inside information that he got from talking to other refs to make lots of $$.

[mmmtodd]

no, he's insinuating that human nature is human nature. the refs arent robots.

[DJR313]

Most referees have a regular job and pick this up over the weekend. I had a professor at UNO that is an NFL referee. I am not sure how you tie Tim Donaghy to your point here. Are you insinuating that Big 12 refs are betting on games, and that they are betting against Nebraska? I don't see that point, considering the Huskers have hit the spread almost 50% of the games this year, either 6-5 or 5-6.

 

He's saying that all refs are biased in a certain way and other refs know that will affect the outcome of some games. Donaghy used that inside information that he got from talking to other refs to make lots of $$.

 

If anything, Pelini's tantrums are well known and no one likes him which is causing official bias.

[Cina]

This does bring up some good points. The Donaghy story does put a good perspective on it, that knowing the bias of the referrees (towards players, in that instance; not teams) can be shown to directly effect the outcome of a game. I have no doubt that bias exists in officiating; Even umpiring for ten-year-olds kickball games, I know how bias can creep in.

However, I'm still hesitant toward the idea that the bias of the big XII refs is caused by our leaving. While there are undoubtedly people who are left with a bad taste in their mouths over our joining the B10, is it that strong among refs? Are the reasons stated in the OP enough to cause pointed widespread bias among officials?

[HuskerNMO]

This does bring up some good points. The Donaghy story does put a good perspective on it, that knowing the bias of the referrees (towards players, in that instance; not teams) can be shown to directly effect the outcome of a game. I have no doubt that bias exists in officiating; Even umpiring for ten-year-olds kickball games, I know how bias can creep in.

However, I'm still hesitant toward the idea that the bias of the big XII refs is caused by our leaving. While there are undoubtedly people who are left with a bad taste in their mouths over our joining the B10, is it that strong among refs? Are the reasons stated in the OP enough to cause pointed widespread bias among officials?

 

No, it's not because we're leaving for the Big 12, it's because Bo is always all over the refs.

[irafreak]

Most referees have a regular job and pick this up over the weekend. I had a professor at UNO that is an NFL referee. I am not sure how you tie Tim Donaghy to your point here. Are you insinuating that Big 12 refs are betting on games, and that they are betting against Nebraska? I don't see that point, considering the Huskers have hit the spread almost 50% of the games this year, either 6-5 or 5-6.

 

He's saying that all refs are biased in a certain way and other refs know that will affect the outcome of some games. Donaghy used that inside information that he got from talking to other refs to make lots of $$.

 

If anything, Pelini's tantrums are well known and no one likes him which is causing official bias.

Which is EXACTLY what he's saying. I too believe that the refs had it out for Pelini. Don't think the conference was involved (yet...did for about a day this weekend but gave it some thought)