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It's not purposefully ambiguous or ambiguous at all. It's tricky, but it's not meant to deceive. It's just a conditional probability, and the fact that it's easy to mix up conditional probabilities with probabilities is a big reason people have a hard time understanding "luck" or how random events work.

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I'm still mulling giving NUance a warning for using "stochastic" in the OP. I don't know what that word means, but it sounds vaguely dirty.

Stochastic is an adjective that refers to systems whose behavior is intrinsically non-deterministic, sporadic, and categorically not intermittent (i.e. random). :lol:

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Hot or cold streaks do exist. "Luck" is simply a word we choose to describe certain events that may seem to buck statistical probablility but, luck in and of itself is not any kind of real force in the world which helps to determine actual outcomes. If a guy goes on a 30 roll hot streak at the craps table, it may be described as luck, and it sure seems lucky but, it is simply a streak not controlled by any of the previous rolls. Interesting topic :thumbs

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