Any chance we shock the Nation as Auburn did?

[VA Husker Fan]

Let's say we have a 50/50 chance in each game against Michigan, Penn State and the B1G champ game. A 70/30 chance against Sparty and UCLA. And a 50/50 chance we run the table against the rest of them. Then a 25% chance we get into the Rose Bowl (BCS champ bowl this year) and win it:

 

0.5 x 0.5 x 0.7 x 0.7 x 0.5 x0.25 = 1.53% chance. So our chances are about 1 in 65. Give or take.

Don't you want to leave that last 25% off of your calculation, as the preceding calculation should provide you with your chance of getting to the game, then take that times what you believe your chance of winning the championship game alone?

 

Edit: should have added a smart ass emoticon, but failed

Well, he missed a 0.5 in his calculation anyway (Mich, PSU, B1G, rest of field), plus the idea was to win it all, not just get there.

 

Lots of teams have some parallels to Auburn every year, most years none of them make it. The parallels aren't even that close. They had Cam Newton, I doubt TMart can have that kind of season. I don't see a Nick Fairley on our defense either. They didn't get whipped like we did in a couple of losses, and we didn't play the national champ to within 5 points. I think it's a real stretch to compare us to Auburn going into the season, much less project us to have the year that they had.

 

But yes, it's possible. For us, and for a number of teams out there. Less than 1% for us as NUance showed, correcting his formula.

I realize there's no accuracy to this whatsoever. Just spittballing to see what ballpark our odds are. So it would be 1/130 with the extra 0.5, not 1/65. (To win.) What's an extra coin-flip among friends?

I think that's actually a pretty fair way to look at it. You can argue that some games are not 50/50, and you could break out the "other" games as being 98%, 95%, 85%, whatever, but they probably come out somewhere in the 50% ballpark. The point is fair that you'd have to win them all, and every game has some chance of a loss, so you factoring them all in this way is reasonable. An optimist might come up with a better number, but I don't see how anyone could reasonably get over 2%.

[VA Husker Fan]

As far as Fairley goes, sure, we've got guys who's stats compare to his from the year before (I say without really looking), but do you really see anyone making the jump this year like he did? He wasn't Suh, but we sure don't have a Suh on our roster.

[HuskerMoon]

Yes there is a chance. IF

 

Nebraska runs a flawless offense.

Nebraska never or close to never turns the ball over.

Nebraska puts up 45-50 PPG consistently

Nebraska never or close to never commits offensive penalties.

 

OR

 

If Pelini can make a young defense perform like he's never made a young defense perform before.

[BigRedBuster]

We have just as much of a chance or more than any other team last year with 4 losses.

[jmfb]

100-1

You dont win National Titles without having a very solid- if not dominating defense

We are also very ordinary special teams wise

You dont win national titles with our turnover ratio combined with a sub par defense

Offensively- we have what it takes

1/3 of the puzzle- only offense, isnt enough to make a serious title run

The turnovers and defense arent some fluke- its not a 1 year crazy bad luck thing

BUT, the season should be entertaining, GBR

 

This is who we are companions with in turnover margin futility- see a correlation ?

You dont win national titles keeping company with teams like this.

 

 

101. Washington St. 12 6 15 21 9 21 30 -.75

 

104. Maryland 12 16 4 20 18 12 30 -.83

 

105. Nebraska 14 10 13 23 22 13 35 -.86

 

106. Air Force 13 8 8 16 21 8 29 -1.00

 

106. Auburn 12 11 2 13 10 15 25 -1.00

 

106. Illinois 12 11 7 18 16 14 30 -1.00

 

106. Texas Tech 13 3 8 11 8 16 24 -1.00

 

110. Akron 12 8 5 13 9 18 27 -1.17

 

110. Connecticut 12 6 6 12 8 18 26 -1.17

 

110. Hawaii 12 10 9 19 20 13 33 -1.17

 

110. Virginia 12 8 4 12 11 15 26 -1.17

 

110. Western Mich. 12 9 8 17 10 21 31 -1.17

 

115. Southern Miss. 12 7 5 12 15 13 28 -1.33

 

116. Idaho 12 13 9 22 17 22 39 -1.42

 

117. New Mexico St. 12 5 4 9 16 11 27 -1.50

 

118. Arkansas 12 6 6 12 15 16 31 -1.58

 

118. Colorado 12 12 3 15 15 19 34 -1.58

 

118. South Fla. 12 7 2 9 13 15 28 -1.58

[QMany]

Vegas says 30:1 so I'll go with that.

[BOJ]

Let's say we have a 50/50 chance in each game against Michigan, Penn State and the B1G champ game. A 70/30 chance against Sparty and UCLA. And a 50/50 chance we run the table against the rest of them. Then a 25% chance we get into the Rose Bowl (BCS champ bowl this year) and win it:

 

0.5 x 0.5 x 0.7 x 0.7 x 0.5 x0.25 = 1.53% chance. So our chances are about 1 in 65. Give or take.

Don't you want to leave that last 25% off of your calculation, as the preceding calculation should provide you with your chance of getting to the game, then take that times what you believe your chance of winning the championship game alone?

 

Edit: should have added a smart ass emoticon, but failed

Well, he missed a 0.5 in his calculation anyway (Mich, PSU, B1G, rest of field), plus the idea was to win it all, not just get there.

 

Lots of teams have some parallels to Auburn every year, most years none of them make it. The parallels aren't even that close. They had Cam Newton, I doubt TMart can have that kind of season. I don't see a Nick Fairley on our defense either. They didn't get whipped like we did in a couple of losses, and we didn't play the national champ to within 5 points. I think it's a real stretch to compare us to Auburn going into the season, much less project us to have the year that they had.

 

But yes, it's possible. For us, and for a number of teams out there. Less than 1% for us as NUance showed, correcting his formula.

Right, we may need Nuance to get in there and explain the math. I saw "get there AND win it" at 25%, so I was thinking that the preceding calculation (the calculated regular season winning chance) should take care of the "get there part" [x-whatever that is, I didn't go to math school so I can't do the math] then multiply that by what Nuance actually thinks the chances are of winning the championship game, independently of getting there and you should have your chances of wining the game (it may very well still end up at around the same %).