Sagarin

[FrankWheeler]

There are certain posters around here that throw around the Sagarin ratings a lot during game week. I'm wondering if anybody has actually take a long look at these?

 

A two lose Wisconsin team ranked ahead of Ohio State?

4-7 Utah ranked at number 26 (25 if you take out the FCS team)?

 

Link: http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/

[QMany]

For BCS purposes, the Pure ELO is used.

 

With this metric, Wisconsin is #12. Northern Illinois is #3!

[FrankWheeler]

Right which makes the entire ranking process silly - is NIU #3 or are they #37?

[knapplc]

I'm a big Sagarin proponent. I remember reading something about a controversy with his rankings this year, but I don't recall what it was or where I read it. Something about the numbers being off due to... something.

 

Sagarin is good to use because more often than not his numbers are good, and they're unbiased by personal feelings. You can also go back through the entire BCS era and have a constant, 240-something team ranking to go from.

[QMany]

I agree, Knapp. It is nice to have some metric for comparisons. However, it gets tough to defend the metric when there are such confusing anomalies. NIU has not played a Top-30 team and has #110 SOS. Ohio State is 1-0 against the Top-30 and has the #67 SOS. NIU is ahead of Ohio State in the computer ranking that is used to determine who goes to the MNC.

[deedsker]

Wisconsin is still predicted to beat Ohio State on a neutral field. What?

 

 

 

[tschu]

Wisconsin is still predicted to beat Ohio State on a neutral field. What?

 

 

 

That's probably correct, honestly.

 

Sagarin is great, just make sure you're looking at the predicative rankings. They match up really well with vegas lines this late in the season. Keep in mind that they are not accomplishment rankings, but pure power rankings.

[deedsker]

Wisconsin is still predicted to beat Ohio State on a neutral field. What?

 

 

 

That's probably correct, honestly.

 

Sagarin is great, just make sure you're looking at the predicative rankings. They match up really well with vegas lines this late in the season. Keep in mind that they are not accomplishment rankings, but pure power rankings.

So an undefeated team that has already beat said team wouldn't be predicted to beat them again on a neutral field?

 

Nebraska for MNC!!!

 

[It'sNotAFakeID]

Speaking of numbers being correct, check out this dandy from a certain preseason thread from a certain poster who does some stats:

 

 

2. Florida State The perennial team that computers love to love and the team loves to disappoint, the Seminoles failed to live up to the preseason hype again in 2012. Yes, they went 12-2, but they were supposed to go undefeated and threaten the national title. An embarrassing 17-16 loss to NC State doomed their chances for that halfway through the season. EJ Manuel is gone from the 'Noles, and it's clear that their defense is what is going to have to win them games next year. But the preseason hype is there again, will the Seminoles be able to live up to it?

 

1. Alabama I think we all saw this coming. No team has been better in the past two seasons overall than the Crimson Tide. Back to back national champions, the Tide finished 13-1 last year, with a heart pounding victory to Georgia in the SEC championship game, and a dominating (almost boring) victory over the Fighting Irish in the national championship. AJ McCarron, TJ Yeldon, and a slew of receivers return for the Tide, and we all know their offensive line and defense will be dominant as they usually are. It's going to take a lot to beat Alabama, and for yours and my sake, I hope some teams are able to crack the Alabama enigma next year.

 

And the current BCS rankings:

 

1) Alabama

2) Florida State

 

Although, Sagarin has:

 

1) Florida State

2) Alabama