When Four Losses Per Year is Too Much

[knapplc]

Tom Osborne won no less than nine games per year, every year, for 25 years. Today the tendency for Nebraska fans is to point to nine wins as a benchmark of sorts, and the inevitable comparison becomes Bo's nine-win streak against Tom's.

 

But it's an invalid comparison for several reasons, but mostly because we play more games today. Tom Osborne never coached more than 13 games in one season in his career and more often than not 12, but today 13 games a season is the norm, with 14 entirely possible if your conference has a championship game. Bo Pelini has coached 14 games in a season three times in his six-year career as Nebraska's head coach. Those extra games make the #9wins mantra irrelevant.

 

 

The focus should be on one of two things - winning percentage or losses. Someone else can focus on winning percentage if they want. It's a valid analysis. To me, the losses are the key, and they are the crux of the disenchantment people have with Bo.

 

This analysis is a bit arbitrary. I chose to look at the number of losses teams have had from 2003 to 2013 because that seemed at first blush like a nice round number. But it's 11 seasons, not ten, so it's a bit wonky. Math was never my strong suit.

 

I also ONLY looked at teams who finished in the AP Top 25 either of those two years (2003 or 2013). That gave me a pool of 44 teams. Why those teams? Because they had some measure of success, and pulling w/l records for 11 years' worth of 120-ish teams didn't appeal to me. Not sure if the bottom half of those teams would show us anything, anyway. Only six teams appeared in both Top 25s - Clemson, Florida State, LSU, Ohio State, Oklahoma and USC. Not sure what that tells us, either, but it was worth noting.

 

First, all eleven years' worth of losses.

 

Team - 03 - 04 - 05 - 06 - 07 - 08 - 09 - 10 - 11 - 12 - 13

T1 - 1 - 1 - 4 - 0 - 3 - 1 - 0 - 1 - 1 - 2 - 5

T2 - 1 - 3 - 2 - 2 - 2 - 5 - 4 - 2 - 1 - 3 - 3

T3 - 2 - 4 - 2 - 1 - 2 - 3 - 2 - 1 - 7 - 0 - 2

T4 - 2 - 1 - 4 - 3 - 3 - 2 - 5 - 2 - 3 - 3 - 2

T5 - 1 - 0 - 1 - 2 - 2 - 1 - 4 - 5 - 2 - 6 - 4

T6 - 3 - 2 - 3 - 4 - 2 - 3 - 5 - 7 - 4 - 2 - 5

T7 - 3 - 7 - 4 - 5 - 7 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4

T8 - 5 - 6 - 2 - 6 - 4 - 3 - 3 - 1 - 2 - 1 - 2

T9 - 3 - 1 - 0 - 3 - 3 - 1 - 1 - 7 - 5 - 4 - 5

T10 - 6 - 3 - 3 - 1 - 4 - 6 - 3 - 2 - 3 - 6 - 4

T11 - 9 - 6 - 2 - 7 - 6 - 2 - 0 - 3 - 1 - 1 - 2

T12 - 3 - 3 - 5 - 6 - 6 - 4 - 6 - 4 - 4 - 2 - 0

T13 - 2 - 6 - 1 - 2 - 5 - 2 - 1 - 0 - 2 - 6 - 8

T14 - 5 - 0 - 3 - 2 - 4 - 7 - 5 - 0 - 5 - 9 - 2

T15 - 4 - 5 - 4 - 5 - 4 - 6 - 5 - 7 - 4 - 2 - 2

T16 - 5 - 5 - 3 - 1 - 4 - 0 - 1 - 5 - 6 - 2 - 8

T17 - 4 - 1 - 3 - 1 - 6 - 7 - 8 - 6 - 6 - 2 - 1

T18 - 4 - 5 - 7 - 6 - 6 - 4 - 4 - 2 - 1 - 5 - 3

T19 - 2 - 0 - 5 - 5 - 4 - 0 - 3 - 3 - 5 - 7 - 7

T20 - 2 - 3 - 3 - 6 - 7 - 6 - 4 - 6 - 6 - 5 - 4

T21 - 3 - 3 - 5 - 2 - 4 - 9 - 7 - 6 - 2 - 5 - 6

T22 - 3 - 2 - 5 - 7 - 6 - 4 - 2 - 5 - 6 - 8 - 5

T23 - 1 - 5 - 4 - 1 - 7 - 10 - 11 - 4 - 8 - 8 - 12

T24 - 5 - 7 - 6 - 8 - 6 - 4 - 7 - 2 - 3 - 6 - 1

T25 - 5 - 6 - 5 - 5 - 2 - 4 - 5 - 3 - 5 - 7 - 2

T26 - 7 - 6 - 3 - 3 - 9 - 6 - 6 - 5 - 5 - 1 - 4

T27 - 7 - 5 - 6 - 11 - 8 - 7 - 5 - 1 - 2 - 2 - 3

T28 - 3 - 3 - 6 - 4 - 4 - 7 - 6 - 7 - 7 - 7 - 7

T29 - 8 - 5 - 6 - 4 - 6 - 8 - 7 - 4 - 6 - 2 - 4

T30 - 9 - 11 - 5 - 8 - 4 - 8 - 5 - 3 - 7 - 4 - 1

T31 - 7 - 3 - 5 - 6 - 3 - 7 - 8 - 6 - 7 - 5 - 4

T32 - 3 - 3 - 5 - 8 - 5 - 6 - 6 - 10 - 7 - 5 - 4

T33 - 4 - 7 - 6 - 6 - 7 - 7 - 6 - 6 - 3 - 2 - 5

T34 - 3 - 6 - 6 - 4 - 7 - 5 - 10 - 4 - 10 - 8 - 6

T35 - 3 - 7 - 8 - 8 - 9 - 4 - 4 - 8 - 10 - 6 - 5

T36 - 7 - 5 - 5 - 5 - 6 - 6 - 6 - 5 - 2 - 2 - 2

T37 - 9 - 8 - 6 - 8 - 9 - 8 - 8 - 6 - 3 - 5 - 2

T38 - 7 - 6 - 2 - 6 - 7 - 8 - 6 - 8 - 8 - 5 - 3

T39 - 10 - 9 - 6 - 8 - 7 - 6 - 10 - 10 - 7 - 4 - 4

T40 - 8 - 9 - 10 - 12 - 11 - 8 - 7 - 9 - 9 - 7 - 4

T41 - 3 - 5 - 5 - 7 - 11 - 6 - 7 - 9 - 9 - 7 - 5

T42 - 4 - 5 - 6 - 6 - 5 - 8 - 7 - 8 - 6 - 7 - 11

T43 - 6 - 10 - 9 - 7 - 9 - 12 - 7 - 6 - 6 - 6 - 4

T44 - 3 - 6 - 7 - 6 - 7 - 11 - 11 - 10 - 8 - 9 - 7

 

 

 

Next, the same loss totals focusing only on Bo's tenure at Nebraska, 2008-2013:

 

Team - 08 - 09 - 10 - 11 - 12 - 13

T1 - 1 - 0 - 1 - 1 - 2 - 5

T2 - 5 - 4 - 2 - 1 - 3 - 3

T3 - 3 - 2 - 1 - 7 - 0 - 2

T4 - 2 - 5 - 2 - 3 - 3 - 2

T5 - 1 - 4 - 5 - 2 - 6 - 4

T6 - 3 - 5 - 7 - 4 - 2 - 5

T7 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4

T8 - 3 - 3 - 1 - 2 - 1 - 2

T9 - 1 - 1 - 7 - 5 - 4 - 5

T10 - 6 - 3 - 2 - 3 - 6 - 4

T11 - 2 - 0 - 3 - 1 - 1 - 2

T12 - 4 - 6 - 4 - 4 - 2 - 0

T13 - 2 - 1 - 0 - 2 - 6 - 8

T14 - 7 - 5 - 0 - 5 - 9 - 2

T15 - 6 - 5 - 7 - 4 - 2 - 2

T16 - 0 - 1 - 5 - 6 - 2 - 8

T17 - 7 - 8 - 6 - 6 - 2 - 1

T18 - 4 - 4 - 2 - 1 - 5 - 3

T19 - 0 - 3 - 3 - 5 - 7 - 7

T20 - 6 - 4 - 6 - 6 - 5 - 4

T21 - 9 - 7 - 6 - 2 - 5 - 6

T22 - 4 - 2 - 5 - 6 - 8 - 5

T23 - 10 - 11 - 4 - 8 - 8 - 12

T24 - 4 - 7 - 2 - 3 - 6 - 1

T25 - 4 - 5 - 3 - 5 - 7 - 2

T26 - 6 - 6 - 5 - 5 - 1 - 4

T27 - 7 - 5 - 1 - 2 - 2 - 3

T28 - 7 - 6 - 7 - 7 - 7 - 7

T29 - 8 - 7 - 4 - 6 - 2 - 4

T30 - 8 - 5 - 3 - 7 - 4 - 1

T31 - 7 - 8 - 6 - 7 - 5 - 4

T32 - 6 - 6 - 10 - 7 - 5 - 4

T33 - 7 - 6 - 6 - 3 - 2 - 5

T34 - 5 - 10 - 4 - 10 - 8 - 6

T35 - 4 - 4 - 8 - 10 - 6 - 5

T36 - 6 - 6 - 5 - 2 - 2 - 2

T37 - 8 - 8 - 6 - 3 - 5 - 2

T38 - 8 - 6 - 8 - 8 - 5 - 3

T39 - 6 - 10 - 10 - 7 - 4 - 4

T40 - 8 - 7 - 9 - 9 - 7 - 4

T41 - 6 - 7 - 9 - 9 - 7 - 5

T42 - 8 - 7 - 8 - 6 - 7 - 11

T43 - 12 - 7 - 6 - 6 - 6 - 4

T44 - 11 - 11 - 10 - 8 - 9 - 7

 

 

 

But wait - where are the team names? They're omitted on purpose. Why? Because the raw numbers are the focus (for the moment, we'll get to the teams these numbers belong to in a while).

 

The argument can be made, justifiably, that four losses per year, every year, is too much. And that Nebraska needs to improve on this, that BO PELINI needs to improve on this, and if he can't there needs to be changes, either with the staff under him or with him. And that's a valid argument, except for the fact that losing less than four games per year is hard - damned hard.

 

So the question is, which team's loss record would be acceptable? Which would be preferable to Nebraska's/Bo Pelini's? Why?

 

 

EDIT - sorry about the wonky formatting.

[StPaulHusker]

How in the hell did you accomplish all of this while moderating Huskerboard and getting into a bitch session with JTrain?

 

You sir, are a genius.

[knapplc]

I type fast.

[sd'sker]

who cares what other teams are doing? the only question should be, "is nebraska playing to the quality of football they are capable of?".

 

i say no.

[RedRedJarvisRedwine]

How in the hell did you accomplish all of this while moderating Huskerboard and getting into a bitch session with JTrain?

 

You sir, are a genius.

You sir are a ummm......

[GM_Tood]

Where is the link to your published article?

[NUpolo8]

Pretty much exactly what sd'sker said.....as usual.

 

Also, and this is something you've said before Mr. Knapplc, the records are irrevelant. Nebraska being 9-4 in 09 with their schedule is a damn sight better than a 9-4 with 2013's schedule.

 

Conference Championships

 

BCS games.

 

A focused football team that doesn't take games off or finish in the 100's in turnovers or penalties.

 

Those things looked on the cusp in 09, they seem farther away now. That's my biggest beef by far.

[jimk]

Is Nebraska team 7?

[knapplc]

What others are doing is entirely relevant. Nebraska doesn't play D1A football in a vacuum, and what we do is directly comparable to what others do, or are able to do. You can't simply say, "Nebraska should do better" without any context whatsoever and have a valid discussion.

 

Is it possible to do better? How would we know without looking at what others do, or can do?

[kchusker_chris]

Is Nebraska team 7?

Do any other teams have 6 straight 4 loss seasons?

[da skers]

What others are doing is entirely relevant. Nebraska doesn't play D1A football in a vacuum, and what we do is directly comparable to what others do, or are able to do. You can't simply say, "Nebraska should do better" without any context whatsoever and have a valid discussion.

 

Is it possible to do better? How would we know without looking at what others do, or can do?

I'll go back to the statement made by someone smarter than me. "People say 9 wins every year isn't hard to do and isn't good enough. But if thats the case how come more teams aren't doing it?"

 

Until someone answers that for me I'll stop arguing the point.

[StPaulHusker]

How in the hell did you accomplish all of this while moderating Huskerboard and getting into a bitch session with JTrain?

 

You sir, are a genius.

You sir are a ummm......

Haters gonna hate

[Junior]

I think it is worth noting that not only did Osborne play only 11 regular season games, 6 were home games. Pelini this year coached 12 regular season games with 8 (that's right, 8) home games. That is a huge advantage that the program did not cash in on.

[knapplc]

I think it is worth noting that not only did Osborne play only 11 regular season games, 6 were home games. Pelini this year coached 12 regular season games with 8 (that's right, 8) home games. That is a huge advantage that the program did not cash in on.

 

Yep, and three of those were losses - excruciating losses. And another was nearly a loss (although I don't count close/lucky wins against us - just saying).

[RedRedJarvisRedwine]

Is Nebraska team 7?

Do any other teams have 6 straight 4 loss seasons?

Or. How many other teams haven't lost more than 4? I see 2 others.