CFB Selection Committee Rankings (Updated 11/11)

[actuarygambler]

So much for winning out :-\

[T_O_Bull]

Hi there, I was at this site a while back, wanted to come back and share this work: http://actuarygambler.blogspot.com/2014/11/college-football-math-destiny.html

 

I built a model based on what we've seen from the CFP committee, how they've ranked teams, how they've talked through their reasoning for ranking teams, and how they've responded to onfield events. So far it's fitting the first 3 weeks fairly well.

 

Based on that model, it looks like IF (that's a big if) Nebraska can win out the rest of their games, they'll have a really good chance to make the CFP. Over 80%. It's a big if, but it starts this weekend with your toughest remaining regular season game @Wisconsin. Then finishes with maybe a B1G title game? Good luck!

On 14 NOV 14 you were living in Never-Never Land. Hope the Pixie Dust has blown off and you have come back to earth.

T_O_B

[actuarygambler]

I said winning out was a big IF

[tschu]

1 Alabama 10-1

2 Oregon 10-1

3 Florida State 11-0

4 Mississippi State 10-1

5 TCU 9-1

6 Ohio State 10-1

7 Baylor 9-1

8 UCLA 9-2

9 Georgia 9-2

10 Michigan State 9-2

11 Arizona 9-2

12 Kansas State 8-2

13 Arizona State 9-2

14 Wisconsin 9-2

15 Auburn 8-3

16 Georgia Tech 9-2

17 Missouri 9-2

18 Minnesota 8-3

19 Ole Miss 8-3

20 Oklahoma 8-3

21 Clemson 8-3

22 Louisville 8-3

23 Boise State 9-2

24 Marshall 11-0

25 Utah 7-4

Minnesota at 18 is flat out egregious. Minnesota over Ole Miss is a joke, as is Minnesota over basically every team below them on the list. And the reason I mention this is that for whatever reason Minnesota is this weird lynchpin for TCU and Ohio State's resumes, so the fact that the committee believes that Minnesota, a team with 3 losses - one of them horrific - and only two sort-of-decent wins (~40th-ranked teams Nebraska and Iowa) is the 18th best team in the nation is frankly alarming.

[Hedley Lamarr]

 

1 Alabama 10-1 2 Oregon 10-1 3 Florida State 11-0 4 Mississippi State 10-1 5 TCU 9-1 6 Ohio State 10-1 7 Baylor 9-1 8 UCLA 9-2 9 Georgia 9-2 10 Michigan State 9-2 11 Arizona 9-2 12 Kansas State 8-2 13 Arizona State 9-2 14 Wisconsin 9-2 15 Auburn 8-3 16 Georgia Tech 9-2 17 Missouri 9-2 18 Minnesota 8-3 19 Ole Miss 8-3 20 Oklahoma 8-3 21 Clemson 8-3 22 Louisville 8-3 23 Boise State 9-2 24 Marshall 11-0 25 Utah 7-4

Not even a top 25 team anymore.....9 wins yay

[Moiraine]

 

Hi there, I was at this site a while back, wanted to come back and share this work: http://actuarygambler.blogspot.com/2014/11/college-football-math-destiny.html

 

I built a model based on what we've seen from the CFP committee, how they've ranked teams, how they've talked through their reasoning for ranking teams, and how they've responded to onfield events. So far it's fitting the first 3 weeks fairly well.

 

Based on that model, it looks like IF (that's a big if) Nebraska can win out the rest of their games, they'll have a really good chance to make the CFP. Over 80%. It's a big if, but it starts this weekend with your toughest remaining regular season game @Wisconsin. Then finishes with maybe a B1G title game? Good luck!

On 14 NOV 14 you were living in Never-Never Land. Hope the Pixie Dust has blown off and you have come back to earth.

T_O_B

 

 

Again, conditional probability. Nothing about what has happened means actuarygambler's calculations were wrong.

[tschu]

Two things that blew me away about Jeff Long's explanations. The first is that suddenly, out of nowhere, he brought up that the committee is judging a win or loss by the rank of your opponent at the time of the game. That is utterly inexcusable. There is simply no defending that sort of voluntary ineptitude. So FSU is getting credit for wins against like #15 OSU and #5 Notre Dame? Mississippi State gets credit for a road win at #6 Texas A&M? And on and on. The beauty about trying to sort through a totally asymmetric schedule is that as the season goes on, we have more data points (games). Our assessments get more accurate and we're able to look back and say that we were off base about certain teams, underrated or overrated. But no, we're going to throw that out the window. So does Ohio State get more credit for beating Minnesota than TCU does?? It doesn't make a single bit of sense.

 

Which brings me to my second point which was that Long repeatedly talked about "wins over ranked teams" as if somehow there's this enormous drop from #25 to #26. You should get roughly the same amount of "credit" for a win over #26 as you should #25. The cutoff is arbitrary and pointless given that team quality exists on a continuum. Each win should be looked at based on the merit of the opponent on this continuum, whether that team is 10 or 15 or 20 or 25, 26, or 27. And especially when you combine the two points, suddenly the committee has lost a ton of credibility this week.

 

It's disappointing, too. I thought they did a great job most of the season and I think they nailed the top 7 teams in their rankings. But to hear them use such backwards logic is alarming and disconcerting to say the least.

 

I have the feeling that the whole "conference championship" wild card is really going to be an adventure next week.

[VA Husker Fan]

Sometimes it does make sense. Sometimes a team gets worse because of injuries, or just loses all their mojo after a loss or two. Notre Dame certainly looks like a beaten team now, and while you can say that FSU didn't really beat a #5 team, that was a better win back then than it would be to beat ND now. I didn't hear Long talk tonight, but I'd hope they just give a little consideration to where teams were at the time, but not make that their basis. Because mostly you're right, as the season goes on, you learn more about every team, and more about what the value of those early wins and losses really are.

[tschu]

What's the committee's worst case scenario?

probably something like:

Auburn over Bama
MSU over Ole Miss
MSU loss to Missouri in SECCG
Arizona over Oregon in Pac12CG
TCU beats Iowa State in overtime
Baylor ROFLstomps Kansas State
Ohio State wins the B1G
FSU loses to Florida close