Let's Do Some Research

[Danny Bateman]

Well said Landlord. Nice research. That's some good stuff.

 

I doubt it will be able to stave off the level of derp this board has been inundated with as of late, but it's at least a start.

[Landlord]

All the coaches listed had periods of success.

 

 

A lot of them only found that success after they were offered, and took, a big time job. Nick Saban, as just one example, never accomplished anything in his 5 years at Michigan State that Riley hasn't at Oregon State.

 

If Nick Saban chose to never leave MSU, would he ever have a championship? Maybe. Who knows? What's super interesting about all of this is that Mike Riley is quite an enigma as a coach, to go along with our enigmatic status as a program for a while now. All in all, none of us really have a clue what is right or wrong or going to happen, because everything is just weird and doesn't fit good comparative research.

[84HuskerLaw]

I think the post is very well done. However, the research and arguments in support of giving Riley our patience and understanding and perhaps one might say the benefit of our doubts, does not adequately resolve that issue of why stay in Corvalis and lead them to seemingly nothing more than college football perpetual mediocrity? He was offered chances to move up and progress in the profession to the presumably greater challenges of 'name' schools. Why not accept those challenges? After all, he accepted presumably greater challenges at pro level teams? He was even offered an opportunity at his alma mater.

 

And finally, why pray tell, did he choose to accept Nebraska' s call of all places at this late stage in life when it would seem so totally fitting and logical to him and his family to stay put in his natural comfort zone of 'home' in Corvallis?

 

If he is truly capable of being our football Moses and leading us back to the promised land, why has he not been such a leader before? And does this possibly mean that we will have to wonder aimlessly in the football desert for another 40 years until Riley leads us to our destiny?

[Landlord]

^ the point, I think, is that we don't know the answers to those questions yet, and we won't have any good answers until a while from now, so we need to stop rushing to a premature answer.

[Dbqgolfer]

Good points Landlord, and I want to be optimistic. My concern however, is that three of our losses can be directly tied to poor end of game coaching. How can we be optimistic that will improve at this point in MR's career?

[Mike Harvat]

Great post. At this point we know very little of whether RIley is going to work at Nebraska, yet a lot of "experts" apparently have seen all they need to see after only six games.

[It'sNotAFakeID]

Good points Landlord, and I want to be optimistic. My concern however, is that three of our losses can be directly tied to poor end of game coaching. How can we be optimistic that will improve at this point in MR's career?

 

We can't, really, and it's completely fair to be pessimistic. But it's unfair to be ignorant of history--and this isn't directed at you. Mike Riley's history at Oregon State suggests he may not do much more here; history of other coaches who didn't do well in their first school only to succeed at another school suggests that it may happen.

[Kernal]

Good points Landlord, and I want to be optimistic. My concern however, is that three of our losses can be directly tied to poor end of game coaching. How can we be optimistic that will improve at this point in MR's career?

 

Which three losses can be tied directly to poor end of game coaching and what were the egregious coaching errors?

[Hunter94]

Hope is a great strategy!

hope and change....lol

[Hunter94]

 

Good points Landlord, and I want to be optimistic. My concern however, is that three of our losses can be directly tied to poor end of game coaching. How can we be optimistic that will improve at this point in MR's career?

 

Which three losses can be tied directly to poor end of game coaching and what were the egregious coaching errors?

 

wow, you evidently missed those games, and maybe don't read the board?

[huskerfan92]

 

Good points Landlord, and I want to be optimistic. My concern however, is that three of our losses can be directly tied to poor end of game coaching. How can we be optimistic that will improve at this point in MR's career?

 

Which three losses can be tied directly to poor end of game coaching and what were the egregious coaching errors?

 

 

......Literally all three of them.

[redtrout]

Riley really did do great things at Oregon State.

538 had an article this year about which teams outperform their recruiting rankings. From 2005-2014 OSU averaged 4th best in the country among P5 teams at that. That doesn't happen without good coaching.

A short series of articles about positive coach effects on footballstudyhall included one about Riley. From the article:

 

Mike Riley is the kind of coach that this analysis really favors, and with good reason. Among programs in FBS AQ conferences there are few that could be argued are more disadvantaged than Oregon State’s (Washington State, Duke, Wake Forest and Kansas State and maybe a few others). Riley has to be Mr. Do-More-with-Less for Oregon State to even remain respectable, let alone finish a year nationally ranked, which the Beavers have in four of the last seven seasons.

What is probably most interesting is that the Riley’s success at Oregon State hasn’t been driven by any cutting edge offensive or defensive schemes. On offense the Beavers run a fairly standard one-back "pro style" scheme. On defense, they run an aggressive 4-3. Riley gets it done the "old fashioned" way. What his program is really all about is superior talent evaluation and strong player development.

 

It's his first year. We haven't had to the chance to see his main strengths as a coach.

His W/L record is deceiving. We are talking about a program that had 26 straight losing seasons and averaged 2.2 wins a year during that period before Riley was hired. And nearly every year he faced tough schedules. Over the past 11 years the Sagarin rankings had OSU's SOS ranked 2, 31, 15, 16, 8, 23, 1, 19, 13, 18, and 47. The 2010 team had the second toughest schedule in the 17 years of the Sagarin rankings. That team finished #29 in the Sagarin rankings. But because of the brutal schedule schedule the team finished 5-7. A bad record but not really a bad team.

But it stalled out and they had two bad seasons over the past five years (yes, two, not four, according to computer rankings that take SOS into account).

I still think there's a great chance that he'll do well at Nebraska.

[neepster]

Actually red trout that is a quite interesting analysis and good reason for hope eventually. Unfortunately for this year there is little reason to hope for much. We're 2-4 through the first half and the second half opponents are significantly tougher than what we have played so far.

[Kernal]

 

 

Good points Landlord, and I want to be optimistic. My concern however, is that three of our losses can be directly tied to poor end of game coaching. How can we be optimistic that will improve at this point in MR's career?

 

Which three losses can be tied directly to poor end of game coaching and what were the egregious coaching errors?

 

wow, you evidently missed those games, and maybe don't read the board?

 

 

 

 

 

Good points Landlord, and I want to be optimistic. My concern however, is that three of our losses can be directly tied to poor end of game coaching. How can we be optimistic that will improve at this point in MR's career?

 

Which three losses can be tied directly to poor end of game coaching and what were the egregious coaching errors?

 

 

......Literally all three of them.

 

 

 

So... you don't know the answer to that question. Carry on then.

[Kernal]

 

Riley really did do great things at Oregon State.

538 had an article this year about which teams outperform their recruiting rankings. From 2005-2014 OSU averaged 4th best in the country among P5 teams at that. That doesn't happen without good coaching.

A short series of articles about positive coach effects on footballstudyhall included one about Riley. From the article:

 

Mike Riley is the kind of coach that this analysis really favors, and with good reason. Among programs in FBS AQ conferences there are few that could be argued are more disadvantaged than Oregon State’s (Washington State, Duke, Wake Forest and Kansas State and maybe a few others). Riley has to be Mr. Do-More-with-Less for Oregon State to even remain respectable, let alone finish a year nationally ranked, which the Beavers have in four of the last seven seasons.

What is probably most interesting is that the Riley’s success at Oregon State hasn’t been driven by any cutting edge offensive or defensive schemes. On offense the Beavers run a fairly standard one-back "pro style" scheme. On defense, they run an aggressive 4-3. Riley gets it done the "old fashioned" way. What his program is really all about is superior talent evaluation and strong player development.

 

It's his first year. We haven't had to the chance to see his main strengths as a coach.

His W/L record is deceiving. We are talking about a program that had 26 straight losing seasons and averaged 2.2 wins a year during that period before Riley was hired. And nearly every year he faced tough schedules. Over the past 11 years the Sagarin rankings had OSU's SOS ranked 2, 31, 15, 16, 8, 23, 1, 19, 13, 18, and 47. The 2010 team had the second toughest schedule in the 17 years of the Sagarin rankings. That team finished #29 in the Sagarin rankings. But because of the brutal schedule schedule the team finished 5-7. A bad record but not really a bad team.

But it stalled out and they had two bad seasons over the past five years (yes, two, not four, according to computer rankings that take SOS into account).

I still think there's a great chance that he'll do well at Nebraska.

 

 

This is the kind of stuff impatience will never see. I don't know if Riley can be successful here, but after six games neither does anybody else.