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2016 Predictions


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Trump is stuck wt the fanatical 33-35%

I think it still is worthy to point out that this is 33-35% of the Republican base witch is roughly 23% of the entire voting population in the US right now.

 

Typically I would not say this about a candidate. But, as you pointed out, he is stuck with his fanatical group of voters and I don't see him winning votes much outside that group.

 

In the general election, I will be shocked if he gets more than 25-30% of the vote. And, that might even be really high.

 

I would agree but people will have to choose which candidate they will have to hold their nose and vote for - Hillary or Trump. If there is enough dislike for Hillary out there, people may vote for Trump. OR they sit it out at home and not vote for either.

 

He will destroy on during debates...but it will be interesting to see how that impacts things.

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So...if it is him against Hillary, I wonder if Hillary will remind him in debates that he has said before that she would be a great President?

Shoot, you would think she would. I would...especially if it was recored or in print. Heck I would attack him with that all I could...of course...he will just come back and say "Well, that was before you broke the law and so on and so on"

 

But she would have to use it...who wouldn't??

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Trump is stuck wt the fanatical 33-35%

I think it still is worthy to point out that this is 33-35% of the Republican base witch is roughly 23% of the entire voting population in the US right now.

 

Typically I would not say this about a candidate. But, as you pointed out, he is stuck with his fanatical group of voters and I don't see him winning votes much outside that group.

 

In the general election, I will be shocked if he gets more than 25-30% of the vote. And, that might even be really high.

 

 

You are right that he has a ceiling of 35% (now he may get more in NV due to his casino ties), but for most states I don't see him getting 45 to 50% or more. Because the other 5 are sticking around, Trump will have such a big delegate lead it will be difficult...but not impossible...to stop.

 

As for the general, he will get at least 45%....there is no way Hillary gets 55% as she is just as disliked as Trump. He actually will pull in many Independents, but will see a lot of Republicans stay home or simply write in another candidate's name.

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Hill....out due to indictment, replaced by ??? not Sanders

 

Trump wins R since neither Rubio or Cruze bails soon enough for the anti Trump vote to coalesce.

 

Trump wins general pretty tight. Trumps survives high negatives with increased connection to working class while D candidate suffers from low familiarity and the independents' desire to see numerous changes from Obama

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