Did Frost know the onside success rate is 21%?

[irafreak]

9 hours ago, Husker in WI said:

 

What about 3) they don't recover the kick but still win, because they were up by two scores and up to that point moving the ball just fine. IMO assigning an arbitrary 100% loss rate after not getting the kick based on our beliefs about the team's psyche is pretty ridiculous. And yes, I've watched the team in the Frost era. 

It's not ridiculous at all. It's a testament to how frost teams have continued to fold time and again after a big swing in the second half of a game.

 

Option 3 didn't exist because I was pointing out that the 60% stat doesn't apply equally to every situation where you have the lead. That's because you can't just say we have the lead so we should try this 60% play. The situation was poor. Keep the momentum and make northwestern drive the field and climb back into the game. 

 

Even if you succeed and drive for another score, is 18 enough? Northwestern obviously plays differently at that point so who knows. Personally I just think the risk wasn't worth the gain based on what was happening to that point in the game. The numbers only tell part of the story. 

[suh_fan93]

Momentum=killed.  

[84HuskerLaw]

Well , not sure all these statical analysis actually are relevant.  Scott’s Husker teams have done the seemingly statistically impossible almost weekly for about 45 consecutive games.    Lol
 

If it’s theoretically possible, no matter how improbable, a Frost team can accomplish it, or get close. 

At the present rates, Frost looks to be on pace to break almost every kind of odd ball record that data analysts can concoct.  Lol. It’s possible he could end up holding the Guinness book record for holding the most Guinness book records!   

 

If ever there was a HC that can lead the nation in close game losses, and perhaps set the unbreakable record in the process, it’s our very own Scott Frost.  
 

Unfortunately, Scott Frost has been snake bit ever since that Stephen King kind of bizarre freak lightning storm shut down his Husker HC debut.   Some kind of inexplicable time- space warping phenomenon occurred that fateful night.  And nothing has been quite right or normal ever since.   It could be a new X Files mini series evet?  
 

No, I’m pretty sure the odds are, that the odds are, about exactly the opposite of what we think the odds are.  Lol.  
 

So I’m betting, just based on the “the Frost Effect”, that whatever can go wrong, probably already has, and no matter what action we may take to try to alter the future, the Frost Effect somehow reverses the polarity and the past repeats itself but in a different sort of way, almost!     Thereafter, magnets now repel iron and attract nickel, until they don’t.  Water may boil at 32 degrees F, and freeze at the same time!    The Frost Effect. It pushes you away while sucking you in.  Theoretical physicists describe it as that imaginary area between the equal and opposite centrifugal and centripetal forces, an orbital status between up and down, in and out, past and future, light and dark.  Essentially a twilight zone.  

 

It’s a place when and where things can happen simultaneously with things that can’t happen.     Yet, strangely, our world doesn’t alarm us  even though it terrifies us, because we become aware we are reliving our future in the past!  

I’m convinced, that Scott Frost is living in his own special version of Groundhog Day, but he may not relive it.  Sadly, it’s like it’s all happening for the first and the only time, again.
 

And, because we are living in a slightly tilted, alternative reverse shifting, multi-helix, ever bending and folding, spiral universe, the best bet would be for Neb kicker to simply try the onside kick, backwards, with his left shoe on his right foot!   It just might work - got a 50-50 chance something will happen!   
 

But, on second thought, don’t bet on it!   Lol