We will beat ASU soundly on Saturday...

[ray233]

DISCLAIMER

 

This was compiled for entertainment purposes only. I'm usually wrong.

 

 

ASU REALITY CHECK

 

-They'll be under-sized, over-powered and out-coached.

 

-ASU has an average quarterback (statistically).

 

-Their star players have underwhelming stats in big games.

 

-For example: Sun Belt superstar DE Alex Carrington averaged 4.4 tackles and a sack per game last year. However, in his career, he has yet to show up in a game against a BCS team:

 

-2008 Alabama = 0 sacks, 2 tackles

-2008 A&M = 0 sacks, 3 tackles

-2007 Texas = 0 sacks, 0 tackles

-2007 Tennessee = 0 sacks, 1 tackle

-2006 Oklahoma State = 0 sacks, 1 tackle

 

-Further hurting Alex's productivity is the fact that double-teaming him is not that costly...on the other side is a 6'1" 245 lb DE that managed just 1 sack last season. A guy that size is what Nebraska generally refers to as a 'linebacker'.

 

-ASU is 1-14 against the Big 12 (the only win coming against a 114th ranked A&M defense in 2008).

 

-ASU is a poor road team. They were 2-for-5 in road games last year and 0-for-6 in 2007. Last year, ASU squeaked by the 119th ranked defense of North Texas (5 points) and the 114th ranked defense of Texas A&M (4 points).

 

-As was the case with Rusty Smith and FAU, the Sun Belt's in-conference success stories don't necessarily translate to the big stage. We were supposed to get tested by one of the Sun Belt's best passing attacks last week, headlined by pro-prospect Rusty Smith: 15 of 31, 0 TDs, 2 INTs.

 

-The little guys who have a shot to knock off a ranked BCS team are typically the ones that consistently take care of business in their own conference (Boise State, Utah, TCU). Arkansas State does not meet the requirement by dominating their own conference. The Red Wolves are in the middle of the pack (pun intended) in a minor conference. They play aggressive defense with a solid running game, but lack the size and talent to go toe-to-toe with major conference teams. In 2007 they went 3-3 against Sun Belt competition.

 

 

-Arkansas State tuned up against a horribly underpowered MVSU team. See for yourself.

 

-Compare that to their game against Alabama last year, when they played scared and got overpowered in a definite role reversal. Check it out.

 

 

NOT SO BOLD PREDICTION

 

On defense, Nebraska will have a bit more time to get into the backfield than last week. Corey Leonard hangs on to the ball way too long to get through this game without taking some lumps. He is not an accurate enough passer to sit in the pocket and make plays with his arm all day. His indecisiveness will get him popped on more than one occasion, given Nebraska's speed up front. I still expect Pelini to play a fairly vanilla defense and hold off on blitzing. With Virginia Tech coming up next week, Nebraska still won't want to show too many cards.

 

Nebraska will challenge Leonard to throw the ball by clamping down hard on their offensive strength; the run game. Suh and the boys will take being called 'soft' seriously and dominate the ASU line in the first half. The Nebraska secondary will punish the undersized receivers on short routes, creating an environment for several dropped passes and some potentially easy picks over the middle.

 

- 3 Sacks

- 3 INTs

- 8 TFLs

 

 

On Offense, the Big Red will come out with an emphasis on the running game again. Against an ASU defensive line that averages 6'2" and 275 lbs a man, Nebraska should be able to create holes at will. Their line backers are bigger-bodied guys that seem a good fit for goal line situations, but don't move terribly well laterally. Roy Helu could have a huge day against this bunch with his quick cuts and acceleration.

 

Last year, ASU played four games against teams with a Top 50 running back (statistically). All were losses. Roy Helu should be a bigger challenge than any of those running backs this Saturday.

 

The last line of defense is a rangy, but underweight, secondary unit that may have trouble bringing down Nebraska's running backs, tight ends or wide receivers one-on-one. With ASU averaging under 6 ft 180 lbs at the corner spots, NU's wide receivers have a significant size advantage. Half of the players in ASU's two-deep at secondary weigh in the 170's. The only starter over 182 lbs is hurt. The starting strong safety is 6'0 172 lbs. Nebraska typically calls these guys kickers (actually, Alex Henery put on some muscle this off season and is about 175 now). Luckily for ASU, the narrow veteran is one of their teams better tacklers and pass defenders.

 

With ASU's smaller d-line, lack of linebacker speed and smaller defensive backs, NU may have the perfect storm for its shifty and strong running backs to go wild. If the holes are there like they should be, a quick cut may be all it takes to continually spring big runs of 10-12 yards or more.

 

Zac Lee did not throw too many balls up for grabs last week and will hopefully avoid reckless throws this week as well. Even though Nebraska's receivers should be able to muscle through jump ball matches against ASU's corners, we will most likely see another conservative game with few unnecessary chances. If the passing game isn't clicking, Zac Lee may look to tuck and run a few more times this week in lieu of throwing the ball away. Nebraska's strong receivers should get some nice separation from ASU's small secondary.

 

- Helu will run for over 100 yards for the second week in a row

- Burkhead will run for over 75 yards

- Menelik Holt will have a big receiving day (wide receivers will block very well again)

- Zac Lee will throw another INT this week

 

 

In the food chain of college football, ASU eats MVSU....then NU eats ASU. The coach speak says these guys are going to be a "challenge", but keeping things simple for ASU is an obvious part of the game plan for Virginia Tech. You'll see minimal blitzing and just a sampling of the playbook; no creativity.

 

Any team can win on Saturday, but if we expected a truly challenging game here, we wouldn't be handing them a million dollar check and playing so vanilla. The coaches believe they can oppose their will on ASU and win the game soundly on base schemes and talent alone. They're saving the good stuff for VT.

 

 

Aggressive play in the trenches and talented depth put this one away late in the 3rd.

 

 

Final Score: Nebraska 48 Arkansas State 16

[RedDenver]

I think NU will win by a decent margin, but even I think that was a pretty one-sided analysis. (I do see the disclaimer.) The final score seems about right to me, but I think ASU has some better players than you're giving them credit for. They've hung with Texas and Tennessee and beaten A&M - and those were all on the road. IMO seems a little harsh on them.

[NshawU]

He did say it was for entertainment purposes. I highly doubt he meant any disrespect. I didn't read it that way.

[Enhance]

I think NU will win by a decent margin, but even I think that was a pretty one-sided analysis. (I do see the disclaimer.) The final score seems about right to me, but I think ASU has some better players than you're giving them credit for. They've hung with Texas and Tennessee and beaten A&M - and those were all on the road. IMO seems a little harsh on them.

 

Beating A&M last year doesn't mean much..everybody beat A&M. They were like the Huskers of '04 but worse.

 

I think we will be fine and even though his analysis is pretty one sided, most of it is true. Watching the highlights from their week 1 game, there is no way half of those plays would be successful against Nebraska. Now I'm not going to sit here and say that I think Nebraska is just too good for them to handle, but our defensive tackles and ends are not going to be blown off the line like MSVU's was. Our offensive line is also not going to collapse on every play like MSVU's.

 

I also really think the size of their players are going to hurt them. 245 really isn't that bad for a d-end, considering Josh Williams (one of our back up d ends) only got up to 250, but they are small at other key positions especially defensively I noticed.

 

Plus, the biggest thing is that it all comes down to coaching. Expect them to keep the score close through the first series, but come fourth quarter we'll be rolling and putting in the reserves, getting ready for another 50 yard CG run

[Fanof49ASU]

Carrington is 6-5 and 285 lbs. Your stats aren't even close. He's a very large DE....and NO fat.

 

Undersized? I can guarantee you that we will match you guys man-for-man everywhere except at WR's height.....we typically have smaller, quicker guys at WR.

Our speed will be our edge....mark my words.

 

Out coached? I don't know about that. Roberts has done a helluva lot with very little. Before coming to ASU, he even took a small 1-AA school in Louisiana into TCU and won.

He enjoys the underdog role.

 

Checkout our other players in 'big' games. Arnold always turns in nice games. Leonard has had some nice ones as well.

 

Until around 2005....ASU could barely stay on the field with anyone. That's basically when our talent started to gel. You guys have no idea of the journey from 1-AA to 1-A....it's a long process, and we're not 'there' yet.

 

In all fairness, our conference road schedule sucks. We have played to our opponent's level too many times.....something that is very common in conference games on every level.

 

Our non-conference schedule is someone you guys can't relate to, because you are at the top looking down. Our team usually schedules way UP from our level of play (Neb/A&M/Tex/LSU/Tenn, etc)....where your team typically schedules way down.

Naturally, our record (and your record) will reflect this.

 

MVSU was a bad team. You got that right. We learned nothing here.

[arkstfan]

 

Beating A&M last year doesn't mean much..everybody beat A&M.

Everybody except Colorado (didn't you trail Colorado with two minutes left last year?)

And Iowa State

And Army

And New Mexico

[Bradr]

After watching the footage, two things stand out to me. (which pretty much agree with ray)

 

First, it looks like they have some speed. They adequately kept up with Alabama and clearly were much faster than MVSU. They swarmed to the ball effectively and clearly outclassed MVSU with their speed.

 

BUT. Second, they did not look very powerful. Yes, their lines blew MVSU off the line of scrimmage and their skill positions outran and overpowered MVSU. However, the exact same can be said about Alabama against ASU.

 

Alabama's defensive line DESTROYED their offensive line (and these were only the highlights). Watch the defensive series from 1:40 to 2:13. Other than a nice scamper from their quarterback, ASU's quarterback/back had pressure almost immediately - and this was in the second quarter. The gas tanks on the offensive line for ASU should still have had some juice. Same thing again from 4:00 to 4:33.

 

Then looks at the blocking by the Alabama o-line and receivers. No trouble for Alabama containing, and ASU's pass rush was largely ineffective.

 

The final score and stats tell a lot:

35-0

ASU:

91 Yards Rushing (2.5 yards per)

67 Yards Passing (8/17)

2/12 3rd downs

 

I say we have to match up a lot closer to Alabama than ASU, and I see the ASU having a lot of trouble in the trenches in our game. Thats where we will win this, and it could get ugly very fast if we can play up to our potential, especially defensively.

[Enhance]

 

Beating A&M last year doesn't mean much..everybody beat A&M.

Everybody except Colorado (didn't you trail Colorado with two minutes left last year?)

And Iowa State

And Army

And New Mexico

 

It was a joke

 

That still isn't saying much. We still beat Colorado and Beat Iowa State soundly. Iowa State and K-State were the two worst teams in our conference, followed closely by A&M.

[Fanof49ASU]

I say we have to match up a lot closer to Alabama than ASU, and I see the ASU having a lot of trouble in the trenches in our game. Thats where we will win this, and it could get ugly very fast if we can play up to our potential, especially defensively.

 

Alabama was ranked #2 at the time. They were a good team.

 

Yall played a #4 Oklahoma around the same time we played Ala.....yall lost 66-28.

You also played another #4 team in Missouri.....dropped that one 52-17.

You did play #7 Tex Tech well...losing that one 37-31....on the road no less.

Not disrespecting you guys at all....just trying to see how 'comparable' you are to Alabama.

[arkstfan]

I say we have to match up a lot closer to Alabama than ASU, and I see the ASU having a lot of trouble in the trenches in our game. Thats where we will win this, and it could get ugly very fast if we can play up to our potential, especially defensively.

 

Alabama was ranked #2 at the time. They were a good team.

 

Yall played a #4 Oklahoma around the same time we played Ala.....yall lost 66-28.

You also played another #4 team in Missouri.....dropped that one 52-17.

You did play #7 Tex Tech well...losing that one 37-31....on the road no less.

Not disrespecting you guys at all....just trying to see how 'comparable' you are to Alabama.

 

Well I would say Nebraska's talent and depth is closer to Bama than it is to ASU, but the top 5 or so schools each year operate in a different realm.

 

I will also say Stoops is much more likely than St. Nick to give a team a beatdown when he gets a chance.

[Fanof49ASU]

Well I would say Nebraska's talent and depth is closer to Bama than it is to ASU...

 

I never doubted that at all.

[Bradr]

Granted - yes, Alabama was ranked number 2 at the time (or some such I didn't look, but will take your word that sounds right).

 

But this is also the same Alabama that was 7-6 the year before under a brand new head coach that was just beginning to install his schemes and players in the system. Big change the next season.

 

Comparatively, yes, we are not ranked in the top of the country, but my speculation is that you will not be able to hold up in the trenches with the depth and skill that we have. Now I don't know a whole lot about your team, and comparing teams between 2 different years is usually an exercise in futility - so I may very well be totally off base.

 

But my hunch that as the game wears on, depth will become a factor in the trenches, like I said. You probably have a few starters that would start for us. But we probably have a lot of second stringers that would start for you. Statistically that does not bode well for you guys, but crazy things can happen, and that is why we play the game.

 

Look forward to a great contest, a clear sunny day, and good luck to ya'all. See you Saturday!!!

[Fanof49ASU]

I have no doubt that you guys would have given them a better game than we did. Granted, they were 9-0 after our game.

 

Yes, depth is always a huge factor.

[knapplc]

Arkansas State is a team that went 4-3 in their conference and 2-3 OOC last year. One of those OOC wins was against a Div II opponent, the other against TAMU.

 

They gave up an average of 23 points OOC while scoring 28, but that figure is distorted by their 83-10 win against Div II Texas Southern.

 

ASU beat one team with a winning record last year (FAU, 7-6) and lost to two different teams with losing records (Memphis, 6-7; Florida International, 5-7).

[docpoco]

I have no doubt that you guys would have given them a better game than we did. Granted, they were 9-0 after our game.

 

Yes, depth is always a huge factor.

 

 

I like how of all the games we have played that "don't matter", Alabama is the exception.

 

Nevermind the fact that Alabama has better athletes than Nebraska, but does anyone care to mention that Alabama had one 1 offensive TD in the entire first half?