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CFN Holiday Bowl Prediction


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Holiday Bowl Prediction

 

2009 Holiday Bowl

 

Arizona (8-4) vs. Nebraska (9-4)

 

San Diego, CA, Dec. 30, 8 pm, ESPN

 

It’s been an interesting decade (plus a wee bit more) since these two faced off in the 1998 Holiday Bowl.

 

Arizona’s 23-20 win over the Huskers to cap off a 12-1 season was supposed to be a springboard for a program that had never been to a Rose Bowl and appeared ready to become a major player in the Pac 10. Instead, the Cats went nine years in a row without a winning season before going 8-5 last year with a Las Vegas Bowl win over BYU.

 

The 1998 Huskers were a year removed from a second straight national championship, and they followed up the loss by being Nebraska again with 33 wins over the next three years before falling into the Bill Callahan abyss. It’s not like the Huskers were bad, but they weren’t special like they were for the so many years. And then came Bo Pelini, and now this game might be the moment when Nebraska makes its case that it’s on the way to being among the elite again.

 

The key for Nebraska will be to find production on both sides of the ball at the same time. The offense was strong under Callahan, but the defense was a disaster. The defense has turned into a national title-caliber rock under Pelini, but the offense has sputtered. This year, had the Huskers had any semblance of an offense, it would’ve beaten Texas, Virginia Tech, and Iowa State and would’ve been off to the Fiesta Bowl. But the defense has been able to carry the team to the edge of a strong ten-win season.

 

Considering the offense ranked 102nd in the nation in yards and scored 142 points against the three Sun Belt teams on the slate and 177 in the other ten games, the defense has been nothing short of phenomenal. Led by Heisman finalist, Ndamukong Suh, and with an aggressive back seven that doesn’t allow much of anything through the air, the Blackshirts need to step up yet again after coming within a few feet and a millisecond from ruining the Texas national title dreams.

 

But Arizona has a defense of its own.

 

The Wildcats finished 21st in the nation in total defense while the team found the resolve and toughness to come up with close win after close win to get to the program’s best bowl game since 1998. After a decent 6-2 start, playtime appeared to be over with at Cal, Oregon, at Arizona State and at USC to close out the year. The Cats pushed the Bears in a tough loss, lost a double-overtime thriller to the Ducks, got by the Sun Devils thanks to a muffed punt return, and stunned USC to earn the No. 2 spot in the Pac 10 pecking order. Seven Wildcat games were decided by eight points or fewer, and now it’s time to see if the Pac 10’s most balanced team can close out strong.

 

The Holiday used to be the best bowl game of the non-BCS season with six straight thrillers from 1998 to 2003, and then the game became average with only one of the last five decided by fewer than 11 points. With the Big 12 getting far better bowl slots then the Pac 10, this is the West Coast league’s must-win bowl game. A win for Arizona would make it three Pac 10 wins in four years, while a Nebraska win would get the Big Red hype machine started for 2010.

 

Players to Watch: In case you had other plans on the night of the Big 12 Championship, or if you were busy watching the ACC Championship, or if you haven’t paid much attention to the Big 12 or Nebraska football over the last few seasons, Ndamukong Suh is the rare defensive tackle who can make a game exciting. Unlike other star players on the inside who are anchors or do things that don’t show up on the stat sheet, Suh makes things happen like a linebacker from the middle of the line. Extremely athletic, he can drop into pass coverage or get into the backfield with equal ease, and now that the spotlight is on after the brilliant performance against Texas, and a fourth place finish in the Heisman race, the Arizona offensive line must come up with a few ideas to keep No. 93 from destroying the Wildcat backfield.

 

Hoping to not be under pressure all game long is Nick Foles, one of the Pac 10’s best and most unappreciated quarterbacks this year. The 6-5, 235-pound transfer from Michigan State had to work his way into the starting lineup, but once there he was able to show off his live arm starting in the fourth game of the season. After getting a little bit of duty early on, he shocked Oregon State with 254 yards and three touchdowns and the gig was his finishing the year with 19 touchdown passes and eight interceptions. Five of those picks came in two games, Washington and UCLA, and they weren’t necessarily his fault. Against the heavy Husker pass rush, Foles’ decision-making ability will have to be flawless.

 

On the other side, Nebraska’s Zac Lee is absolutely, positively the starter … sort of. The junior was red-hot in the second half in the key win over Missouri, throwing three touchdown passes, and he threw just three scoring passes in the remaining seven games he played in. He’s not bad on short to midrange passes, but he hasn’t been allowed to be much of a quarterback considering the make-up of the team. His job is to keep the chains moving, not to turn the ball over, and let the defense take care of everything else, but he threw three picks against Iowa State and three against Nebraska. That’s why ...

 

Nebraska will win if ... it doesn’t turn the ball over. Not surprisingly, the two games that Lee threw three picks in turned out to be the team’s two losses over the final seven games. The Huskers destroyed the Iowa State offense but lost because the offense gave the ball away eight times including five fumbles. The three interceptions against Texas were a killer, the two interceptions against Virginia Tech didn’t help, and the two turnovers against Texas Tech made it a blowout. The formula is simple. Keep the game close, let the defense win the field position battle, take advantage of the opportunities when they’re there, and rely on Alex Henery to kick lots and lots of field goals. Getting Roy Helu and the running game involved early is a must, too.

 

Arizona will win if ... it wins the field position battle. The Nebraska special teams are strong thanks to Henery and return man Niles Paul , but the Cats might have an advantage here highlighted by kickoff returner Travis Cobb and a nice punt return game. It’s not like the Husker offense is going to crank out many, if any, drives of 70-plus yards on a defense that allows just 112 rushing yards per game and will get to Lee on a regular basis. The same formula for Nebraska should work for Arizona, but with far more offensive pop and just as aggressive a defense, this is a more complete team. The Cats don’t give it away too often, and as long as they keep the field tilted to Nebraska’s side and don’t lose the turnover margin be too much, if at all, they should be able to pull out the tight game.

 

What will happen: If you’re expecting a shootout, look elsewhere. With two strong defenses with excellent pass rushes, this will be a chess match of field position and with a few chances needing to be taken on both sides. Nebraska will open things up a bit, it’ll have to, but that will lead to a few key turnovers, Foles will outplay Lee, and Arizona will have its biggest win in the Mike Stoops era.

 

CFN Prediction: Arizona 19 … Nebraska 16 ... Line: Arizona -2

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Holiday Bowl Prediction

 

2009 Holiday Bowl

 

Arizona (8-4) vs. Nebraska (9-4)

 

San Diego, CA, Dec. 30, 8 pm, ESPN

 

It’s been an interesting decade (plus a wee bit more) since these two faced off in the 1998 Holiday Bowl.

 

Arizona’s 23-20 win over the Huskers to cap off a 12-1 season was supposed to be a springboard for a program that had never been to a Rose Bowl and appeared ready to become a major player in the Pac 10. Instead, the Cats went nine years in a row without a winning season before going 8-5 last year with a Las Vegas Bowl win over BYU.

 

The 1998 Huskers were a year removed from a second straight national championship, and they followed up the loss by being Nebraska again with 33 wins over the next three years before falling into the Bill Callahan abyss. It’s not like the Huskers were bad, but they weren’t special like they were for the so many years. And then came Bo Pelini, and now this game might be the moment when Nebraska makes its case that it’s on the way to being among the elite again.

 

The key for Nebraska will be to find production on both sides of the ball at the same time. The offense was strong under Callahan, but the defense was a disaster. The defense has turned into a national title-caliber rock under Pelini, but the offense has sputtered. This year, had the Huskers had any semblance of an offense, it would’ve beaten Texas, Virginia Tech, and Iowa State and would’ve been off to the Fiesta Bowl. But the defense has been able to carry the team to the edge of a strong ten-win season.

 

Considering the offense ranked 102nd in the nation in yards and scored 142 points against the three Sun Belt teams on the slate and 177 in the other ten games, the defense has been nothing short of phenomenal. Led by Heisman finalist, Ndamukong Suh, and with an aggressive back seven that doesn’t allow much of anything through the air, the Blackshirts need to step up yet again after coming within a few feet and a millisecond from ruining the Texas national title dreams.

 

But Arizona has a defense of its own.

 

The Wildcats finished 21st in the nation in total defense while the team found the resolve and toughness to come up with close win after close win to get to the program’s best bowl game since 1998. After a decent 6-2 start, playtime appeared to be over with at Cal, Oregon, at Arizona State and at USC to close out the year. The Cats pushed the Bears in a tough loss, lost a double-overtime thriller to the Ducks, got by the Sun Devils thanks to a muffed punt return, and stunned USC to earn the No. 2 spot in the Pac 10 pecking order. Seven Wildcat games were decided by eight points or fewer, and now it’s time to see if the Pac 10’s most balanced team can close out strong.

 

The Holiday used to be the best bowl game of the non-BCS season with six straight thrillers from 1998 to 2003, and then the game became average with only one of the last five decided by fewer than 11 points. With the Big 12 getting far better bowl slots then the Pac 10, this is the West Coast league’s must-win bowl game. A win for Arizona would make it three Pac 10 wins in four years, while a Nebraska win would get the Big Red hype machine started for 2010.

 

Players to Watch: In case you had other plans on the night of the Big 12 Championship, or if you were busy watching the ACC Championship, or if you haven’t paid much attention to the Big 12 or Nebraska football over the last few seasons, Ndamukong Suh is the rare defensive tackle who can make a game exciting. Unlike other star players on the inside who are anchors or do things that don’t show up on the stat sheet, Suh makes things happen like a linebacker from the middle of the line. Extremely athletic, he can drop into pass coverage or get into the backfield with equal ease, and now that the spotlight is on after the brilliant performance against Texas, and a fourth place finish in the Heisman race, the Arizona offensive line must come up with a few ideas to keep No. 93 from destroying the Wildcat backfield.

 

Hoping to not be under pressure all game long is Nick Foles, one of the Pac 10’s best and most unappreciated quarterbacks this year. The 6-5, 235-pound transfer from Michigan State had to work his way into the starting lineup, but once there he was able to show off his live arm starting in the fourth game of the season. After getting a little bit of duty early on, he shocked Oregon State with 254 yards and three touchdowns and the gig was his finishing the year with 19 touchdown passes and eight interceptions. Five of those picks came in two games, Washington and UCLA, and they weren’t necessarily his fault. Against the heavy Husker pass rush, Foles’ decision-making ability will have to be flawless.

 

On the other side, Nebraska’s Zac Lee is absolutely, positively the starter … sort of. The junior was red-hot in the second half in the key win over Missouri, throwing three touchdown passes, and he threw just three scoring passes in the remaining seven games he played in. He’s not bad on short to midrange passes, but he hasn’t been allowed to be much of a quarterback considering the make-up of the team. His job is to keep the chains moving, not to turn the ball over, and let the defense take care of everything else, but he threw three picks against Iowa State and three against Nebraska. That’s why ...

 

Nebraska will win if ... it doesn’t turn the ball over. Not surprisingly, the two games that Lee threw three picks in turned out to be the team’s two losses over the final seven games. The Huskers destroyed the Iowa State offense but lost because the offense gave the ball away eight times including five fumbles. The three interceptions against Texas were a killer, the two interceptions against Virginia Tech didn’t help, and the two turnovers against Texas Tech made it a blowout. The formula is simple. Keep the game close, let the defense win the field position battle, take advantage of the opportunities when they’re there, and rely on Alex Henery to kick lots and lots of field goals. Getting Roy Helu and the running game involved early is a must, too.

 

Arizona will win if ... it wins the field position battle. The Nebraska special teams are strong thanks to Henery and return man Niles Paul , but the Cats might have an advantage here highlighted by kickoff returner Travis Cobb and a nice punt return game. It’s not like the Husker offense is going to crank out many, if any, drives of 70-plus yards on a defense that allows just 112 rushing yards per game and will get to Lee on a regular basis. The same formula for Nebraska should work for Arizona, but with far more offensive pop and just as aggressive a defense, this is a more complete team. The Cats don’t give it away too often, and as long as they keep the field tilted to Nebraska’s side and don’t lose the turnover margin be too much, if at all, they should be able to pull out the tight game.

 

What will happen: If you’re expecting a shootout, look elsewhere. With two strong defenses with excellent pass rushes, this will be a chess match of field position and with a few chances needing to be taken on both sides. Nebraska will open things up a bit, it’ll have to, but that will lead to a few key turnovers, Foles will outplay Lee, and Arizona will have its biggest win in the Mike Stoops era.

 

CFN Prediction: Arizona 19 … Nebraska 16 ... Line: Arizona -2

sounds about right to me.

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yawn. Listen, I know just as well as anyone how downright rotten our offense is. But I just cant help to think that the way the offense has progressed throughout the year-- under watson, or Bo, or whoever it is--to just stay out of the damn way has me pretty hopeful for the game plan this team will have put together with so much time against a single opponent. I think we are going to run the ball more than effectively. Roy's healthy, superman is back and had plenty of time to get back into a rhythm with the line, who should be a little more rested as well. And I think the o-line will play with a chip on their shoulder after taking a lot of heat for not playing physical enough, especially from Bo ,who we know is an awesome motivator. He's made no bones about calling them out to the media.

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Wow scout didn't mess up any names. Also a pretty nice written article. Impressed.

 

Except:

 

"His job is to keep the chains moving, not to turn the ball over, and let the defense take care of everything else, but he threw three picks against Iowa State and three against Nebraska."

 

Think they meant Texas...

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im looking forward to watching stanfords vaunted running game against oklahoma's D. the overall physicality of the pac 10 hasnt impressed me so far this bowl season.

Other than USC, everyone else folded up when the other bowl team punched them in the mouth.

 

 

 

 

NU 28 UA 13

What? Suh gets 3 pick sixes?

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