Stewart Mandel's Mailbag

[knapplc]

Lots of Husker coverage in today's Mailbag:

 

I'm not sure what to take from this Texas-Texas Tech game. It was hard watching all those errors, but the D was spectacular, keeping Tech under 150 total yards. In the end, UT got the win, and knowing you can win when so many things go wrong is at least a small comfort. But should I be mortified by the utter lack of progress showed by the O so far, or have faith that this D will keep us in any game?

-- Alex P., Austin, Texas

 

At this point, I think it's safe to say that much of the Texas coverage this offseason focused on the wrong side of the ball. Quarterback Garrett Gilbert was being mentioned as a dark-horse Heisman candidate based off of a two-touchdown, four-interception performance in the BCS championship game. Last Saturday in Lubbock, he threw ... two touchdowns and three interceptions. Mack Brown spoke confidently this summer about the Longhorns' transformation back into a power running team. Texas averaged 2.2 yards per carry against the Red Raiders.

 

But Texas' defense? It's so freaking good. Brown said before the season he thought this defense had a chance to be the best of his 13-year tenure, and he may be right. Texas receiver James Kirkendoll said this week, "I feel we have the best defense in the country," and he may be right, too. For me, it's a toss-up between the 'Horns and Ohio State.

 

Will Muschamp, Texas' great defensive coordinator, is working with a deep, experienced and very versatile unit. It starts with the secondary, where he has five well-tested veterans (cornerbacks Aaron Williams, Curtis Brown and Chykie Brown and safeties Blake Gideon and Christian Scott) who are so reliable, Texas can afford to take risks up front. But he really hasn't had to take risks yet, because the front four can rush so effectively. The emergence of true freshman end Jackson Jeffcoat allowed Muschamp to move Alex Okafor and, at times, star Sam Acho, inside. Emmanuel Acho and Keenan Robinson are both big-time linebackers.

 

But can Texas expect to beat Oklahoma on Oct. 2 and Nebraska on Oct. 16 (I'm not that worried about UCLA this week) solely with its defense? I doubt it, because those teams have pretty good defenses themselves. I do believe Gilbert will only get better as the season progresses, but I don't have much faith in that running game. The Longhorns' offensive line simply is not physical enough and none of the tailbacks are elite difference-makers. Gilbert will have to do a better job of avoiding mistakes, and the defense will have to be flat-out dominant, for Texas to make it through that stretch unscathed.

 

 

Heisman winner on a 7-5 team? If Denard Robinson continues to put up the numbers he has, he should be in the Heisman talk ... but will he? The Heisman has been only going to a BCS bowl-bound (usually championship game-bound) player. If Robinson puts up 400 yards per game all season, but the Wolverines' defense plays like it did against UMass and costs Michigan games, will Robinson have any chance to win the doorstop trophy?

-- DM, Columbus, Ohio

 

First of all, it's a big presumption to think Robinson will keep up his current pace (410 yards per game of total offense) throughout Big Ten play. It's probably a safer bet that Michigan's defense will in fact cost the Wolverines at least four games. But let's say he does continue to put up ridiculous numbers. Recent history has favored the star player from a national-title contender, a la Mark Ingram last season. Six of the past seven winners played in the BCS championship game. Therefore, it stands to reason that should Michigan fall from the national rankings, guys like Terrelle Pryor, Kellen Moore, Ryan Mallett (he'll need to knock off Alabama this weekend) and perhaps even Nebraska frosh Taylor Martinez will start hogging the spotlight.

 

 

Stewart, thanks for picking Texas Tech to upset UT. I was honestly worried Texas was going to lose in Lubbock, but once you picked Tech, I knew we were safe. Please pick OU and Nebraska as well. Thanks.

-- Alan, Houston

 

Nice picks for the upset this week! Either you were living on another planet or you were on some really good drugs when you said Washington (seriously, Washington?) would upset or even come close to beating the Huskers.

-- Chad Hutchens, Laramie, Wyo.

 

I hit 80 percent of my picks the first two weeks, and do you know how many e-mails I got about it? Zero. But of course after this weekend's unmitigated pickoff disaster, the e-mails start pouring in. No worries. I can take it. Though I'd be a lot more impressed if you guys had the stones to send these in before the games.

 

Here's my prediction of your predictions. You will lose five of these picks, most notably Texas and Nebraska.

-- Chris, Portland, Ore.

 

Well played, sir.

 

 

I just finished watching Nebraska's drubbing of UW, and in light of that humiliation, I have a question about Jake Locker. I am absolutely not disputing his athleticism, but given his performance today (4-of-20 for 71 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions), does he deserve the hype he's been getting? I just don't get it: His stats are mediocre, and he looked awful today. What gives?

-- Angela, Seattle, Wash.

 

As I wrote this summer, Locker is the rare player whose "hype" was trickling down from the NFL rather than vice versa. Personally, I've long ago given up trying to figure out which quarterbacks will succeed at the next level and which won't. If you'd told me in 2005 that five years later Matt Leinart would be a career backup just cut by his original team, I'd have said you were out of your mind. Of course, I would have said the same thing if you told me in 2006 that JaMarcus Russell would be a No. 1 pick the following spring. I don't claim to be an NFL talent evaluator. I leave that to the "professionals."

 

With that in mind, I drank the Kool-Aid when guys like Mel Kiper and Todd McShay started speaking about Locker as if he were the second coming of John Elway. Kiper on April 7: "If you had to ask me right now who is going to be the No. 1 pick in the 2011 draft, I would say it's etched in stone it's going to be Jake Locker." McShay on July 14: "Just finished Locker '09 tape. Anyone that thinks he's not [round one] talent either hasn't done homework or doesn't know how to eval[uate] QB's." And now comes the backtracking. McShay after Saturday's game: "Watched all 16 Locker misses, incl[uding] 2 picks + 1 pick erased due to flag. Of the 17, 8 were on Locker. Bad reads, erratic throws. Not good." And: "Definitely mounting concerns about Locker pressing and confidence level..."

 

Just a guess, here: Perhaps some of that pressing and lack of confidence comes from having been anointed a No. 1 pick more than a year before the actual draft. Between the pundits' hyperbole and Washington's own aggressive Heisman campaign, Locker bore some serious public expectations coming into the season despite relatively modest production his first three seasons. Physically, he's a great talent, and we've seen him make some fantastic plays, but he's yet to do it for a full game against an elite opponent. Hopefully he'll get back on the right track and not pull a Jevan Snead, who, like Locker, had a much higher reputation among the draftnicks than he did in actual NFL war rooms. Says McShay: "... Snead comparisons are crazy. Ease off the panic button folks."

 

 

LINK

 

I really wish he would have spoken more about the reason Locker sucked so bad. I haven't seen many national pundits give due credit to the Blackshirt secondary. Locker simply had nowhere to throw the ball because all four of his talented receivers were covered.

 

The longer we go into the season and the more games like this that we rack up, the more people will start to give the secondary credit for this game. As of now the story is still Locker's fall from grace. It's up to us to change that story to the outstanding quality of our secondary - and we will.

[Igetbored216]

Are you the news fairy now?

 

I think most have taken note how good Texas' D is. That's why I am still under the belief that if Nebraska wins on October 16th, it will be a close defensive battle. Something to the tune of 14 to 10 or 17 to 14.

 

I do like our chances against their offense though. We have one of the best secondaries in the country, and I think we may be able to score some defensive points based on Grape's performance so far this year. Their offense still plays right into our strengths, even though they have stated they wanted to go with a power running attack. It definitely hasn't worked yet, and in order for Texas to move the ball, they will have to run between the tackles. The sweeps out of shotgun and other runs to the outside that they have been using heavily aren't going to work against Nebraska this year. We have way too much speed for that.

 

Really looking forward to this game. Now, if this can only become a night game, I would really be happy.

[knapplc]

Are you the news fairy now?

 

I've always posted up articles when I could. Usually Nexus got to them first, but he's been busy with other things lately so I've been posting them.

[GM_Tood]

Are you the news fairy now?

 

I've always posted up articles when I could. Usually Nexus got to them first, but he's been busy with other things lately so I've been posting them.

 

Can you start leaving $1 under our pillows?

 

Thanks for posting these articles guys...makes it a lot easier to get my daily dose of Husker news.

[bshirt]

Well, maybe Texas does have an outrageously good defense. But with the pirate gone, maybe TT isn't a big offensive force anymore? I don't know at all either way....but it seems that there's a good chance that TT has declined in a big way from the last what.....nine years or so?

 

"If" it's true that TT isn't an offensive scoring machine anymore maybe Texas just has a good but not great defense? Either way they'll be hard pressed 10/16.

[knapplc]

Well, maybe Texas does have an outrageously good defense. But with the pirate gone, maybe TT isn't a big offensive force anymore? I don't know at all either way....but it seems that there's a good chance that TT has declined in a big way from the last what.....nine years or so?

 

"If" it's true that TT isn't an offensive scoring machine anymore maybe Texas just has a good but not great defense? Either way they'll be hard pressed 10/16.

 

They most certainly are not. Tuberville isn't Leach's bootlace. If you watched that game you saw a good Texas defense, that's for sure, but you also saw a coach who didn't know how to run Leach's offense. It was NOT the same offense we faced last year. Not even close.

[skersfan]

Pretty much what Coach Leach said this morning. You have to turn it lose and Tubbs did not.

 

I think Coach Leach may end up at Colorado. I really like the guy, I met him the week before we lost 70-10. He is hilarious on his show, but he needs to be coaching.

[Landlord]

... based on Grape's performance so far this year.

 

 

[Danimal]

From what I understand TTech has totally changed their blocking schemes and their current personnel don't fit as well. Tech-fans swore up and down they were keeping the light-out O while adding lights-out D. They were only half-right. Tech has a TON back on O and would've been a machine if Leach was there. The D wouldn't have been quite as good of-course but IMO if Leach was there Tech could've pulled-out the W Saturday.

[skersfan]

Coach Leach on his radio show was making comments about having 16 starters back and that they had felt it was their best team ever. He felt the coaching staff doe not have faith in the existing offense and failed to use it to its potential. Who knows?

 

Texas was lucky he was gone I think, but I hear he is headed back to coaching soon. Hope so.

[bshirt]

Well, maybe Texas does have an outrageously good defense. But with the pirate gone, maybe TT isn't a big offensive force anymore? I don't know at all either way....but it seems that there's a good chance that TT has declined in a big way from the last what.....nine years or so?

 

"If" it's true that TT isn't an offensive scoring machine anymore maybe Texas just has a good but not great defense? Either way they'll be hard pressed 10/16.

 

They most certainly are not. Tuberville isn't Leach's bootlace. If you watched that game you saw a good Texas defense, that's for sure, but you also saw a coach who didn't know how to run Leach's offense. It was NOT the same offense we faced last year. Not even close.

 

Gotcha. Thanks for the scoop.

 

I didn't see the game and was hoping that might be the case. Texas with no running game and a statue at qb......heh, heh, heh.

[RedDenver]

 

Gotcha. Thanks for the scoop.

 

I didn't see the game and was hoping that might be the case. Texas with no running game and a statue at qb......heh, heh, heh.

UT's defense looks awfully good though. They could be like NU last year with a great defense and subpar offense.

[bshirt]

 

Gotcha. Thanks for the scoop.

 

I didn't see the game and was hoping that might be the case. Texas with no running game and a statue at qb......heh, heh, heh.

UT's defense looks awfully good though. They could be like NU last year with a great defense and subpar offense.

 

Even if they do have a great defense I like those odds a whole big bunch. I highly doubt they can hold us to five 1st downs like last year (or even anywhere close to that) and if we do that to Texas's offense.....it's a 99% chance of a "W" for us.

[RedDenver]

 

Gotcha. Thanks for the scoop.

 

I didn't see the game and was hoping that might be the case. Texas with no running game and a statue at qb......heh, heh, heh.

UT's defense looks awfully good though. They could be like NU last year with a great defense and subpar offense.

 

Even if they do have a great defense I like those odds a whole big bunch. I highly doubt they can hold us to five 1st downs like last year (or even anywhere close to that) and if we do that to Texas's offense.....it's a 99% chance of a "W" for us.

Agreed. But let's be honest, UT fans are chuckling just as much since they have the #1 rush defense and we're primarily a running team. I like our odds in this one, but UT is a very good team no matter how you slice it.

[dawhuskerkc]

From what I understand TTech has totally changed their blocking schemes and their current personnel don't fit as well. Tech-fans swore up and down they were keeping the light-out O while adding lights-out D. They were only half-right. Tech has a TON back on O and would've been a machine if Leach was there. The D wouldn't have been quite as good of-course but IMO if Leach was there Tech could've pulled-out the W Saturday.

Agree, Tt under tuberville is not TT under Leach, its a pseudo look alike gameplan. TX vs TT showed that quite clearly. Tubberville has no understanding of the hows and whys of the Pirates inner head. Me thinks that tubberville is like all program change coaches, he's attempting to move the team toward an identity he is comfortable with, emphasis on more defense. The problem is Tubberville isnt in the same league intellectually with the guy he replaced and thus TT is a team between identities, much like the limbo area we were in for so long. Say what you want about Leach, he was and remains one smart cookie. No other coach innovated offensive schemes that moved so many others to shape copies of.